Looking at Sports Wagering Like the Stock Market
By Loot, Sports Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
It seems hard to look at sports-betting like the stock market on the surface. We see stock playing as some sort of sophisticated endeavor, done by guys in suits. Meanwhile, we look at sports-bettors and they seem like a completely different species of animal. But the successful sports-bettors and the thriving stock player have more in common than people might originally think.
In sports-betting, like stocks, we’re dealing with numbers. Just as companies have a number attached to them to indicate value, so do sports teams. The odds and lines are basically like the price on a share for a company. The opening number comes out and then the market metes it out. Over time, the number becomes market-tested and more solid than the opening figure.
Just as in stocks, the worst thing to do is to play “follow the leader.” Original insight is what gets rewarded in both walks of life. Good sports-bettors and stock investors alike are looking to put their money behind something that is being under-valued. That means maybe going off-the grid and finding more obscure entities or even getting behind something completely new and unproven.
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There are some stock players and sports-bettors who play it safe. For a stock player, that might mean buying stock in only the most established companies, like Coca Cola or Nabisco, or whatever it is. In sports-betting, that equates to a bettor always betting on big favorites or only betting on the teams with large national followings who are always on TV.
In stocks and sports-betting alike, the ones who get truly rewarded are the ones who forge their own paths. They are willing to see the potential is something that is unproven. They find no comfort whatsoever in being part of a public consensus. In fact, they find it unsettling when their opinions fall in line with those of the general betting public.
As sports-bettors, your ability to think independently is a major consideration that will separate you from the rest of the pack. Are you willing to take a stance that contradicts the opinions of every voice you hear on the topic? Do you have enough guts to have a piece of original insight while actually following through with a bet? Anyone can have original thoughts, but unless you can act on them, you’ll only be more tortured knowing you decided to ignore that money-winning voice we all have within us.
All successful corporations in the stock market were at one time more speculative entities. Then over time, people became increasingly convinced of the company’s strength and bought in. But the ones who made the most money were those who signed on the earliest. People who bought into Apple, for example, in 1984 were the ones who came out ahead, more so than those who just recently climbed aboard. In sports-betting, that means seeing the writing on the wall before everyone else does.
When you’re able to see an up-and-coming team before everyone else notices, that’s going to enable you to cover some more bets than you would have otherwise. If you notice a fighter has championship qualities before he starts getting hyped, you’re likely to hit a few winning bets at huge odds. Being ahead of the game is key. In those regards, it’s not that dissimilar to sports-wagering.
Sports-betting may have a bad reputation. To a degree, it’s rightfully earned. There are scoundrels in this business, namely scamdicappers who really give the business a bad name. Then we hear of all the crooked bookmakers over the years and stories of fixed games and fights--it leads one to think of sports-betting as shady. But let’s remember--the level of treachery that is found with the guys in suits and ties in corporate buildings far outweighs anything that could be inflicted in the world of betting. What happened to Enron alone probably usurps the total collective screwjobs inflicted on sports-bettors over time. So don’t be so quick to scoff at the comparison of the sports-betting world and the stock market.
There are some clear benefits to looking at sports-betting as a market. We’re not merely caught up in the idea of having an opinion as to who will win a game. We’re looking for spots where good value is present. We’re looking for investments where the actual value appears to outweigh the price being offered.
