The Best Bet You Can Make on Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
When the fight is as big as Floyd Mayweather-Conor McGregor is going to be, the amount of different bets you can make is mind-blowing. It the mind is capable of conceiving it, the bookie is likely offering it. While the options are tremendous and allow you to be really specific with your betting, it can also be overwhelming. A lot of bettors are unable to navigate the sheer volume of bets and some of them water down their best picks by falling victim to the feeding frenzy.
Making a slew of different bets for Mayweather vs. McGregor is fine, but we should have a singular bet—one that is our best bet. Then we should play that angle more-heavily. Again, the options are great. It makes it so we can either be really specific or very general. You can make bets on each of the fighters, while also betting on various details of just the fight where picking a winner isn't even necessary. Naturally, we'd like to make a big score, but when there is easy money to be made on a more-chalky bet, we shouldn't hesitate to pick up the easy cheese.
The different angles you can take are numerous. The idea is to be correct. We're not betting on a whim here and we're not taking an angle based on juicy odds. We are looking at value, but not in the spirit of necessarily making a huge score. The different positions you can take are almost too many to name, but they generally fall into these categories:
Who will Win the Fight
How Long the Fight will Last
How the fight will End
What Round Will the Fight Will End
How Each Fighter will Win
Will There be a Knockout or Not?
Specific Round Picks
Details Within a Fight
Round-Ranges Picks
Note: Within all the above listed bets are many different variations. Again, within a big-fight framework of this nature and with all the box office appeal of Mayweather vs. McGregor, the sportsbooks follow suit. And their coverage of the fight is very comprehensive. Check to see all the odds at the book.
CHOOSE ANY NUMBER OF THE DOZENS OF BETS YOU CAN MAKE ON MAYWEATHER VS. MCGREGOR AT 5DIMES
Going through the Process: Let's start knocking off the bets we don't like. Perhaps the value just isn't there or it's forcing us to be too exact. While straight boxing betting is a big part of our wagering diet, we don't like the odds much for this fight. Taking Floyd at -700 or above has some definite appeal for the big fish—those who don't mind betting big bucks on huge chalk. If any fighter is receiving good value straight up to win, it's Mayweather. And if we were somehow able to get it right and have McGregor win, we'd like to be seeing better than +500 for our efforts. After all, he's a first-time pro against one of the best ever. We'd like to see better return on our money than that for predicting something that seems so unlikely and unfathomable on different levels.
Some of these bets put us in a position where we are asking too much out of ourselves. Whether we are forced to guess the exact round the fight will end or even a range of rounds, that's a tough one to call. We could try to get specific with how the victor will win the fight, but that boxes us into a corner if we're wrong about who we select.
Our Best Pick: We think a bet on the fight itself might be what the doctor ordered. And what we're honing in on when the fight will end. Here is the bet itself:
Mayweather-McGregor Goes Distance +250
Fight Won't Go Distance -300
On the other hand, we're thinking there is an even better chance that McGregor will find himself out of his element. Granted, Mayweather has scored a mere two knockouts in his last 14 fights. Those fights came against world champions, many of whom are seldom if ever stopped inside the distance. Furthermore, the biggest gap in ability between boxers and non-boxers isn't in the delivery of punishment, but rather the acceptance of it. The ability to subtly roll from shots, absorb the brunt of a blow, and lessen the affect of a punch is the signature of all top-tier championship boxers. And that's who Floyd is and who he has been beating. Where does Conor fit into that equation?
Over the years, Mayweather has suffered from brittle hands. Combine that with the rises in weight and we saw his KO percentage dwindle over time. A pretty good puncher at 130 and 135 pounds, Mayweather doesn't push the issue as he once did. But McGregor might not be insulated from the Mayweather power completely. Despite all the decisions, Mayweather is not a soft puncher. Some may recall how his shots had the bigger Canelo Alvarez hesitant to launch an offense. We see durable and tough-minded fighters not all that gung-ho about getting in Mayweather's face after a few rounds.
In other words, we see the most-likely route to a win for both men being of an inside-the-distance variety. McGregor's only hope seems to be a win of this nature and if he's unable to make it happen, it's hard to see a novice like McGregor manage the type of effort needed to simply lose a decision to Mayweather. Going 12 rounds in a pro debut is not something that seems terribly likely. To picture either McGregor winning a decision or a close-enough and non-explosive fight that just meanders 12 rounds in Mayweather's favor seems unlikely in our estimation. We're going with the fight ending inside the distance.
Lootmeister's Best Bet for Mayweather vs. McGregor: We're betting the fight won't go the distance at -300. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet on Mayweather vs. McGregor from the comfort of home by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
