Betting on Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor: The Total (Over/Under)
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
First, let's take a look at what a boxing total bet is, also known as a boxing over/under bet. In this bet, we're not trying to pick a winner. In fact, the winner of the fight is of no importance. All we are concerned about here is how long the fight will last. The bookie posts a number—a total of rounds of how long the fight will go. You merely choose "over" or "under." It's a pretty easy bet to make. In fact, if your grandma suddenly wanted to make a boxing bet, this would probably be the easiest one to explain to her.
Let's look at the total, as of press time, for the Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor fight:
Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor Over/Under
Total: 9.5 Rounds (Over 9.5 -105, Under 9.5 -115)
Here you see the odds, with the rounds bet set at 9.5 rounds. And the over and under are close in odds, with under fetching a -105 price, as the under is going at -115. It's virtually a toss-up as to whether the fight will go 9.5 rounds or not. And as you can see with the odds averaging out at a reasonable -110, betting totals in boxing is a good way to insulate yourself from the sometimes-lavish vig associated with boxing betting.
How the Mayweather vs. McGregor Over/Under Bet Works: The bookie has set the number at 9.5 rounds. If you think the fight will last 9.5 rounds or more, you would naturally bet "over." At -105, it's almost even money. You would have to bet $105 to win $100. If you do not think the fight will last 9.5 rounds, you would bet "under." That is going off at -115, meaning you would bet $115 for every $100 you hope to win. And that $100 thing we keep harping on is just to make it easy to understand. Of course, you can bet any amount and the odds would just break down to the figure you wagered.
Important Note: If this is your first bet of this nature, the number 9.5 might throw you off. The total of 9.5 rounds means nine-and-one-half completed rounds. It does not mean midway through the ninth round. The line in the sand for this fight is actually halfway through the tenth round. The total of 9.5 puts the magic mark for when this bet is determined at 1:30 of the tenth round. That might seem obvious enough, but you'd be surprised how many people think 9.5 means halfway through the ninth round.
Making a Case for Each Side
The Over: The fight lasting longer than halfway through the tenth can be justified on certain levels. Floyd began his career at 35-0 with 24 KOs and has since gone 14-0 with just 2 KOs. He relies on a lot of traits other than punching power. That's not to say he isn't dominant, however, as Mayweather will go down as the least-punished superstar in the history of the sport. But as he has risen in weight and age, he stops far-fewer opponents. And with the Ortiz KO win being as unconventional as it was, Mayweather has only scored one true KO (over Ricky Hatton) in the last dozen years.
Conor also offers a certain danger-potential with his left hand power and overall fighting spirit. One could envision Mayweather taking a more-tactical approach where he allows his pure boxing skills to dictate the fight. With Floyd having such a pronounced advantage in overall boxing skills, he's shown that he is smart enough to battle almost exclusively along those lines.
Just a tip, but if you either like Conor to win the fight or at least think the probabilities of him winning exceed what the odds indicate, choosing the "over" would seem to contradict that pick. Anything can happen, but it's hard to envision McGregor winning a decision or by a KO in the championship rounds. If you like Conor, you're getting juicy-enough odds to not even worry about the total, unless you're hedging a big wager. At the same time, it's possible to think Conor is going to do well and still like the "over." Maybe you just think he will acquit himself well and show better stamina in a more-relaxed fight than he's shown in some of his more-frenzied MMA matches.
The Under: This story sort of writes itself, doesn't it? In the unlikely event that Conor were to win, it would seem to be inside of the tenth round. Floyd, meanwhile, is fighting a guy who has never fought in a pro boxing match and has shown iffy stamina in his own sport. Granted, those fights where he has gotten fatigued were in fights where the action is hotter and heavier than what you typically find with Mayweather fights. But won't fighting in a new setting against one of the best to ever do it also provide the kind of pressure that can sap McGregor's stamina? Mayweather's fights aren't always barnburners, but the newness and magnitude of this event, in addition to the more-hidden mental pressure Mayweather puts on opponents, could have McGregor drowning if this goes past 7 or 8 rounds. The MMA superstar has fought 5 MMA rounds just once and asking a fighter like that to go 12 rounds is asking a lot, 5 minutes or 3 minutes, it doesn't matter.
FINALLY! AN ONLINE SPORTSBOOK WHERE CREDIT CARDS WORK FOR DEPOSITING SO YOU CAN BET THE MAYWEATHER VS. MCGREGOR FIGHT FROM HOME! YOU GET A 50% BONUS UP TO $250 FREE TOO! BOVADA SPORTSBOOK
Then you come to the gulf in skills. When you're talking about Floyd, you're talking about one of the more-complete fighters ever. Power might not be his calling card, but he is a master scientist of the sport. Think what you will, but boxing in MMA is not in the same building as top-level pugilism seen in the squared-circle. That's not meant to attack MMA, where a ton of different skills are employed. It's simply meant to illuminate people to the nuance of the kind of boxing that Mayweather brings to the table. A lot of his traits don't leap off the screen. But when you study him, you see a fighter who grades out at the top of the scale when it comes to durability, recuperative powers, knowledge of ring angles, defense, ring-generalship, calmness under fire, control of ring geography, and any number of other more-subtle traits that will surface in this fight.
Final Thoughts: It's a mixed bag. It's easy to see why the odds are so close. And despite a lot of people having very strong opinions one way or the other in this proposition, strong cases can be made for either side. Do you figure Floyd's power hasn't been much of a factor in recent years and take the over? Or will the gulf in skills, experience, and knowledge have McGregor out of his element?
Lootmeister's Pick on the Total (Over/Under): We are taking the "under." A routine Mayweather decision is hardly a difficult thing to imagine, being that it's all we have really been seeing of him in recent years. And he could stop McGregor late. But we envision something more dramatic occurring. While we don't much fancy his chances, McGregor's clearest route to a win would be a knockout in the first half of the fight. The scenario we see unfolding is one where Mayweather's overall skills take McGregor out of the fight inside of ten rounds. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Mayweather vs. McGregor fight at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying inflated odds with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
