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Deontay Wilder vs. Luis Ortiz II Pick

Deontay Wilder vs. Luis Ortiz II Fight Preview and Prediction to Win
When: Saturday, November 9, 2019
Where: TBA
TV: Showtime
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Titles: WBC Heavyweight Title
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Deontay Wilder, 41-0-1 (40 KOs), Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Vs.
Luis Ortiz, 31-1 (26 KOs), Cuba/Miami, Florida

Betting Odds: Deontay Wilder (-800), Luis Ortiz (+500)

Deontay Wilder defends his WBC title belt in a rematch against top contender Luis Ortiz on November 9. This is a rematch from their fight in 2018, where both men inflicted damage before Wilder prevailed in the tenth round. It wasn't a great fight, until Ortiz nearly took Wilder out in the 7th round, with Wilder recovering before rallying to finish Ortiz in the 10th round. Though Wilder was ahead narrowly on the cards, a lot of people had Ortiz ahead at the time of the stoppage. That might all sound inconsistent with what we see from the betting odds, which would suggest a pretty easy fight for Wilder. But Wilder is a substantial favorite and looks to have the rematch go a little smoother for him than the first fight. Who comes out ahead in Wilder-Ortiz II?

Despite his fearsome power and scary-looking record, Wilder is an imperfect fighter. Ortiz was able to bring this to light, as was Tyson Fury in a subsequent draw. At this level, Wilder can struggle with the skills of his opponents. And against Ortiz, that struggle nearly cost him his title and unbeaten record. But Wilder was able to right the ship, as he always does, and get the job done. He followed that with the draw against Fury and an easy blowout-win over Dominic Breazeale. Ortiz has also stayed relatively busy, winning three fights since the first go-around with Wilder.

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No one really seems to want Ortiz to be champion. First, you have a few PED gaffes, which have sullied his reputation. Though listed at 40, not many believe that to be true, as athletes from Cuba never seem to be as young as they purport to be. And even when he appeared to be beating Wilder the first time around, all judges had him behind. It brings to light how difficult it might be for him to get a fair shake and that certainly figures into his underdog pricing. But he is undeniably talented and very well-versed. He has sheer naturalness in the ring and in simply one of the best heavyweights on the planet.

It's just that you're getting a great price on a fighter who not long ago showed in no uncertain terms that he can compete with this man. Normally, an underdog of this nature would have little hope, but you can't say that in this case. He was just a few punches from getting it done and he looked to be ahead. But Ortiz couldn't get it done at the end of the day. And he hasn't shown anything in his last three fights to show much of a difference, while Wilder was able to once again unveil his scary late-rounds power in the Fury fight, while also demolishing Breazeale. Wilder is not an easy man to keep down. His immense power displays maybe mask how resourceful he is, having overcome a lot of bad moments in the ring to bring his power to the forefront. On top of his power is a lot of championship heart and spirit.

On one hand, this will be Ortiz' last shot to truly make a mark. It's been a long road here and he is too old and difficult to bank on big shots in the event that he loses. His urgency has to be at a fever-pitch. The previous issues with PEDs don't paint his overall confidence in a great light and he has never really delivered a big win at this level. At a listed 40 (being likely closer to 50), you don't usually see guys make their first real mark at this age.

Even so, Ortiz is a big southpaw with a lot of skills and some power to go with it. That package of skills and traits makes it hard to relegate him to the no-hoper pile. He is well-schooled and showed he matches up favorably with Wilder. The champion is not a nuanced pugilist. He has power, guts, and resolve, but even as he wins, he loses a lot of rounds along the way. Perhaps Ortiz can avoid trouble this time and squeak out a win.

You just have to ask whether there is any abundant reason to bet on Wilder at these odds. When you take a fighter with that kind of a price, you really like to see a smooth path to victory. The last thing you want is a substantial risk that looms, something that the 7th round of their last fight illustrates. Even if you have a hunch that Wilder will get the measure of Ortiz in quicker order, there simply is no value in Wilder in this spot. The odds are actually worse than they were the first fight. The odds almost make it like the first fight didn't even happen because at no point, did it look like a matchup that would command odds like this.

I don't want to put all my eggs in the Ortiz basket. And when thinking of how this fight will go, I see Wilder either getting him out of there early or maybe Ortiz doing one better than last time. And when he had Wilder going, it was the 7th round. I don't see this going much past that point. I will look for a bet on the "under" closer to fight-night. That way, we can still profit even if we lose on the other play, which for the sheer value of it, has to be Ortiz.

Loot's Pick to Win the Fight: I'm betting on the "under" and Luis Ortiz at +500 betting odds. Bet this fight for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% sign-up bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!

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