Gennady "GGG" Golovkin vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez Betting: Exercising Caution
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
When betting on boxing, a good sign that you're on the wrong track is when you don't at least fathom the downside in whatever position you take. That's especially true in a fight where there isn't a big favorite like in the Gennady Golovkin vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez fight. In fights of this nature between two top-level guys, cases can be made for either fighter. It's good to be decisive if you have a strong opinion one way or the other. Listen to your instincts. But all of us have sat dumbfounded at boxing results in the past when we were certain of a different result. In this fight, there really would be no result that would rightfully register as "shocking."
All we're saying is that it's good to be cautious. It's also good for the learning process to see which factors we may have overrated and which ones we failed to acknowledge fully. No one can really quarrel with either position in this fight, even if you think you've been blessed with some special insight. Regardless of how solid your position is in making a GGG-Canelo bet, temper it by at least looking at reasons not to take that stance.
Why Not to Bet on Gennady "GGG" Golovkin:
He's never faced an elite fighter. This is his first foray into the real deep waters of boxing.
Can you name another middleweight champion at the age of 35 or older other than Bernard Hopkins who really thrived this late in their career in huge fights at 160?
He has started to show wear in his last two fights, either a result of age, growing stale and having already peaked, or he's winding down after a ton of high-level amateur fights and a championship-level pro career.
While a great fighter, he has only seen his excellence applied to a lower classification of fighters than what Canelo has faced.
His results speak for itself, but he wears opponents down in a more-methodical manner and doesn't hit the same high notes that Canelo is capable of hitting.
If Alvarez' track record is any indication, Golovkin could be facing a scenario where he needs to win by a clearer margin than what is required from Alvarez. In terms of the judging, Golovkin is Hagler to Canelo's Leonard.
He might find that his tendency to have a one-gear style fails to translate as well at the absolute top levels of the sport.
Why Not to Bet on Saul "Canelo" Alvarez:
Against the A-List fighters he has faced, Canelo hasn't really been able to create a lot of separation and some would say he has even caught some breaks from the judges along the way.
A compact fighter, Canelo might struggle at the range in which Golovkin does his best work. Will Canelo be able to compete with GGG at longer range?
Shorter than GGG and a squat middleweight, Canelo will end up in spots where he's right in Golovkin's wheelhouse. An active jabber, Golovkin could see that being a valuable weapon in this fight.
Considering that it seemed to fall into Team Canelo's hands as to when this fight would occur, will the avoidance and need to wait for visible erosion from GGG have Canelo psyched out a bit unconsciously?
Despite all of his accomplishments, we have to at least consider the possibility that Canelo's star shines brighter as a boxing celebrity than it does as an actual fighter. And his A-level box office appeal has certainly helped him on a few occasions.
Everyone is focused on Golovkin's supposed decline. Yet Canelo's face suggests a veteran fighter whose ring age might surpass his chronological age. It's just possible that the youth advantage might not favor Canelo to the extent it's being made out to be.
While he has endured the blows of hard-hitters in the past and certainly has proven durability, Alvarez has never met a power-puncher near the caliber of Golovkin. With most of his A-level matchups coming against more boxing-oriented opponents, how dependable will Canelo's chin be for the purposes of this fight?
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Despite having fought a higher caliber of opponent overall, can you say with certainty that Canelo would have beaten both Kell Brook and Danny Jacobs, considering that Golovkin's performance against those same two men are being used as evidence of decline by Canelo supporters?
From a matchup and style standpoint, Canelo's lack of size, speed, and long-range mastery suggests he might come up short on the "Styles make fights" front. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the GGG vs. Canelo fight at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying inflated odds with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
