Tony Harrison vs. Jermell Charlo II Fight Preview and Prediction to Win
When: Saturday, December 21, 2019
Where: Toyota Arena, Ontario, Canada
TV: Fox
Weight Class: Super Welterweights: 154 Pounds
Titles: WBC Super Welterweight Title
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Tony Harrison, 28-2 (21 KOs), Detroit, Michigan
Vs.
Jermell Charlo, 32-1 (16 KOs), Houston, Texas
Betting Odds: Tony Harrison (+190), Jermell Charlo (-245)
Tony Harrison defends his WBC Super Welterweight belt against the man he beat for the title when he battles Jermell Charlo at the Toyota Arena on December 21. The first fight was a well-contested bout fought at a high level. Many felt Charlo did enough to win, as the unanimous decision in favor of Harrison took some by surprise. The 29-year old champion will be looking to prove it wasn't a fluke, while Charlo looks to get his career back on track.
The stakes are high. For Charlo, a career that was in high-gear cannot afford another setback in this fight. A win here leads to big things and a loss leads to a long road back to his former status. The first fight was a large upset and the expectation is he should prevail, albeit at much shorter odds than the first fight. And for Harrison, his viability as a high-level fighter is also on the line. A win here leads to any number of lucrative possibilities.
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I thought Harrison deserved the decision in the first fight. I think people were projecting when scoring that fight. And while Harrison was hardly a house on fire, he was very tactical, showed great defense, and economically took advantage of the spots Charlo gave him to get his offense untracked. Granted, he spent large portions of the fight in a shell, covering up and not doing a lot. It wasn't what is normally associated with a winning look. But if you looked closely, Charlo was connecting on precious few clean shots, while getting clipped enough to give Harrison the edge in what was an unusual fight, but one that I think was correctly scored. Charlo might have looked like the better fighter, but Harrison was savvy enough to get the fight on his terms, where he tactically controlled the bout.
Charlo is a curious study. At 29, his career has slowed down some since 2017, when he scored a sizzling KO over Erickson Lubin. Since then, a majority decision win over faded Austin Trout was a bit of a letdown, which led to his shock-loss to Harrison. Whereas Harrison has been inactive waiting for the rematch, Charlo got a win in the interim, scoring a third-round KO win over Jorge Cota. Still, his trajectory has leveled out the last few years and this fight can be identified as the fork-in-the-road moment in his career.
Harrison was a nice prospect out of Detroit who built himself into a contender. A former KO artist, he has become a lot more-cagey through his experience. It looked like he was about to spit out by the business, suffering a pair of ninth-round stoppage defeats, first to Willie Nelson and then to Jarrett Hurd. He built himself up with a few wins, but even in beating an over-the-hill Ishe Smith by only a split decision, he seemed to fit the role for an easy Charlo win, with people viewing him as a recycled contender being brought in for a tune-up fight for Charlo. As we know now, it didn't work out that way.
Injury issues for Harrison prevented this fight from happening earlier and partly as a result, he has been inactive since the first fight, which was almost a year ago to the day of this rematch. I'm not sure that helps him, but a veteran can usually absorb that without ill results. It's just a little hard to figure where Harrison belongs in terms of how to view him. A fighter who had failed at this level before, he won a huge fight, but it was quirky in the way he won. He didn't really outfight Charlo or even "beat" him in any kind of way that would make you think he's great. Harrison fought smart and an off-key Charlo led to the fight being close, where Harrison got the close call.
There are still things Harrison does that are going to be trouble for Charlo. The former champion is a major talent. But the application was lacking in the first fight. With Harrison in a shell, Charlo was reduced to taking part in a chess game, which isn't his game. He couldn't find answers on offense to help open Harrison up. He had no solutions for the Harrison shell defense. It's not enough to be fast, to look good, and to have the right people behind you. At this level, you have to be able to solve puzzles, find answers in difficult conditions, and find a way to let your talent rise to the top. And Charlo wasn't able to do it that night.
I think a lot of stars lined up right to give Harrison the win in the first fight. If one of those stars doesn't line up—it won't work. First, he has to fight as well or better than he did the first time. Let's assume that happens. He would need to have the same version of Charlo to show up and that's not likely to happen. He will need judges who all happen to see things his way and that's not likely to happen again. I see Charlo doing what he needs to do to get the decision this time. I'm taking Charlo.
Loot's Pick to Win the Fight: I'm betting on Jermell Charlo at -245 betting odds. Bet this fight for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% sign-up bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!
