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Tyson Fury vs. Tom Schwarz Pick

Tyson Fury vs. Tom Schwarz Fight Preview and Prediction to Win
When: Saturday, June 15, 2019
Where: Thomas and Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: ESPN
Weight Class: Heavyweights: 12 Rounds
Titles: None
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Tyson Fury, 27-0-1 (19 KOs), Wilmslow, Cheshire, England
Vs.
Tom Schwarz, 24-0 (16 KOs), Magdeburg, Germany

Betting Odds: Tyson Fury (-4500), Tom Schwarz (+2250)
Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+100), Under 9.5 (-130)

Tyson Fury takes on Tom Schwarz in a heavyweight battle at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas. This is Fury's first fight since his stirring December battle with Deontay Wilder, which was controversially ruled a draw. The rematch was nixed and instead, Fury draws the unbeaten 24-year old German Schwarz as the first opponent in his new lucrative deal with ESPN. The odds are enormously in Fury's favor, with Schwarz being an unbeaten, though not entirely-respected heavyweight. Let's see what we can come up with for Fury vs. Schwarz.

After battling back from substance abuse and mental health issues, Fury culminated his comeback with a great showing against Wilder. The final-round knockdown he suffered ended up costing him a win, but he was heroic in how he rose from that and even fought well in spots heading down the stretch. He thoroughly outboxed Wilder over long stretches of the fight and it's hard to justify a winning scorecard for Wilder. But that's the past. Fury now forges on and needs this win to maintain his status. For all intents and purposes, he is the linear heavyweight champion and when talking about the best big man in the game, the 6'9" Englishman is a big part of that conversation.

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Schwarz draws a tough opponent as an entrance exam into the waters of the world-class. Schwarz has nice size, but that will be negated by the towering Fury. And in this version of Fury, it's already been shown that he still has "it." He can still thrive at the upper-reaches of the sport. He's as natural as they come in the ring, an innate fighter with naturalness and ease in the ring. It's the result of having been in this sport since he was a kid, coming from a long line of fighters.

With all the big fights looming ahead for Fury and with this being the first fight on his new deal, this really qualifies as a stay-busy fight for all intents and purposes. On the surface, the opponent-selection of Schwarz seems credible enough—a young unbeaten fighter with an eye-catching 24-0 (16 KOs) ledger. I think it's fair to rate him as a decent prospect, but certainly not one that has been identified by many as a big part of the heavyweight division in the future. He's nearly 6'6" and until you know, you really don't know. It can be difficult to define the ceiling of a big man like Schwarz before he has really had the chance to showcase his wares.

Still, when looking for a upset-candidate to unseat a guy like Fury, one would like to see at least one standout trait. And such a quality doesn't really jump out when evaluating Schwarz. Like with Wilder, he was outclassed by the skill of Fury, but he at least had that punching-power to remain in the fight and nearly win it. Schwarz' route to a possible upset seems less clear. That's not to demean his skill or the guys he has fought, but when looking at Schwarz in action, you see him against opponents that aren't anywhere in the league of Fury or even most of the guys Fury has recently beaten.

It's the nature of the beast when an established fighter like Fury takes on Schwarz that you're looking at a jump in class. Young prospects will never be able to match the ring credentials of champion-level fighters. So we don't want to get too caught up in that, but Schwarz' resume is in fact pretty thin leading up to this test. And Fury being such a jumbo-sized favorite here speaks to the lack of confidence of Schwarz' body-of-work. He seems competent in the ring without being spectacular in any way. Add that all up and that's how a 24-0 fighter can be such a huge underdog.

These big events can sometimes frazzle young fighters like Schwarz. Fury will be fighting for the first time in Vegas, but bright lights and big shows are nothing new to him. For Schwarz to be taking this big of a leap in quality of opposition is hard enough, but for a fighter tucked away in Germany to now have to come to Sin City to pull off the improbable is another layer working against him. Every factor in this fight, from the opposition to the build-up to the locale, is all new territory for Schwarz.

Obviously, when the guy you're picking to win is 45-to-1, there isn't much one can do. If someone besides me can see legitimate daylight for Schwarz at +2250 odds, have at it. I don't see it. I'm inclined to look at the totals. And when doing so, I see something a bit unusual. Normally, if a fighter is good enough to rate as a -4500 favorite over his opponent, a KO is much more in play than what is being suggested here. The rounds proposition is more what you'd see in a fight that was perceived to be competitive. Granted, Schwarz appears durable and Fury isn't the destroyer he once was. But when the talent-differential is so vast, I think that brings the stoppage much more into play. With the rounds set at 9.5 and with an "under" play priced at just -130, I see that as being the move to make in this fight. I'm taking the "under."

Loot's Pick to Win the Fight: I'm betting that the Fury vs. Schwarz fight goes "under" 9.5 completed rounds. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Fury vs. Schwarz fight from home by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!

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