Why You Shouldn't Bet on Conor McGregor Against Floyd Mayweather
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
For many, they don't need extra reasons to not bet on Conor McGregor in his upcoming fight against Floyd Mayweather on August 26. After all, he is a first-time pro boxer taking on an undefeated legend in the sport. The story sort of writes itself. But there are a number of voices who fancy McGregor's chances and not all of them are bonafide nuts who can barely spell "boxing." Some either feel that Conor has the right combination of traits to win or at the very least, his actual chances of victory surpass what the oddsmakers and betting public are saying.
These fights usually spark strong opinions. When you add the whole "boxing vs. MMA" dynamic, it kicks the partisanship up a notch. But when the feelings run hot and the opinions are very strong, it has a way of drowning out good reason and common sense. In a previous article, we wrote on why it's a good idea to bet on McGregor, so we will temper it with a piece on why it's a bad idea. And though it might seem wishy-washy or at least mildly indecisive to take both sides of the story, it's really a good idea to look at all bets this way. If unable to see the counter side to the argument, you are likely missing the boat. And if you can't at least fathom the downside to betting on Conor McGregor in this matchup, you're really lost at sea. Not that we're saying he will lose necessarily, but here's why we think betting on McGregor to win this fight is a bad idea.
MMA Boxing vs. Boxing Boxing: Many of those citing McGregor's chances point to his ability to punch. That ability has been shown in MMA. In boxing, the delivery and the acceptance of punches is on a different level. Look at MMA fighters as handymen, guys who are good at a lot of different things. There are things they do well and that applies to Conor with his punching. But when swapping shots with MMA fighters, you're dealing with a lot less nuance and overall know-how than you are in a boxing ring. And with Floyd, a future Hall of Famer who depended on finesse more than brute force, that difference will show on August 26.
Odds: As of press time, we see McGregor listed as an underdog anywhere in the +350 to +500 range. The odds have been on the move since the announcement of the fight and that's the general ballpark for the return of McGregor if he won this fight. On one hand, it gives the potential McGregor backer some hope to see that he's receiving that kind of respect from the oddsmakers and the betting public. Then again, when you're picking a fighter who is making his professional debut to beat a 49-0 future Hall of Famer, wouldn't you want the potential return to be really substantial? What you'd make off of Conor springing this upset could be duplicated by letting it ride and hoping you win two hands of blackjack. Personally, when picking someone to thrive against the best in a sport in which he is new, we'd like to stand to really clean up financially. While the return on McGregor is decent, it's hardly earth-shattering.
Overcoming Adversity: We're not saying McGregor hasn't overcome adversity before in fights. He has dealt with issues in some of his wins, most recently by turning the tide against Chad Mendes and when he gutted out a tough win in his rematch win against Nate Diaz. Still, he has lost three times. And when he got tagged a few times in his loss to Diaz in their first fight, he pretty much melted, going for an ill-fated takedown attempt against a man who would and did dominate him on the ground. Fighters lose and in MMA, it's a more constant reality. At the end of the day, however, Floyd is a winner through-and-through. All crises he faced were conquered, as he always found his way to the winner's circle. We're not sure Conor has shown that same knack to cultivate wins out of tough situations. That could be a problem, being that he's the one facing an uphill battle in a new sport.
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The Principles: Betting according to principle has its many drawbacks. Most importantly, it removes each of the fighter's specific strengths and weaknesses from the equation and that's never a good thing. Any fight breakdown should be done in the spirit of weighing the case of how each fighter's assets and drawbacks play against each other in the ring. But at some point, it's hard for certain things to not dawn on you—namely how a first-time pro boxer is just not in his element against an undefeated legend of the sport. It's hard to not dwell on the fact that hand-to-hand fighting in the MMA is not even in the same universe as what happens in the ring when tip-top boxers are performing. For those plunking down money on McGregor, these are points that have to pop up in their heads—and rightfully so.
Location of the Fight: While we get caught up discussing the matchup and marveling at the uniqueness of the boxing vs. MMA matchup, let's pay a little mind to the harsh reality of pro boxing. Roots run deep in Vegas. Monkey business runs deep in Vegas. Mayweather is the king of that city, with his fights generating millions for casinos and locals alike. He is well-liked in town, a result of his generosity and the business he generates. Not that he has completely relied on home-cooking, in fact, there aren't a ton of clear cases where you could point to that really helped him in a fight. But there's a saying in this business—"Follow the money." And while the UFC is a big part of the Las Vegas fight culture, this is boxing. And a lot of times, boxing acts in the interests of boxing. McGregor won't just be fighting Mayweather, he could be fighting against a whole establishment. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the big Mayweather vs. McGregor fight from home by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
