Why You Shouldn't Bet on Floyd Mayweather Against Conor McGregor
By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Floyd Mayweather is a prohibitive favorite in his scheduled August 26 bout against MMA superstar Conor McGregor. And in fights of this nature, the betting is unhinged. It's not so much that more people are handicapping this particular match than it is the strong feelings these fights evoke from fans. And when you add the fact that it's a cross-sport matchup between boxing and MMA, that just makes the two sides that much starker.
Here at Lootmeister, we want to explore the entire spectrum of the fight from all angles. With this article, we're not suggesting so much that betting on Mayweather is a bad idea. In any bet, there are reasons to be optimistic and reasons to be hesitant. If you aren't sensing both sides of the equation, you're probably overlooking something and way too confident in your pick. We also wrote an article on why you should bet on Mayweather. So this article is just something to weigh into the equation more than it's an endorsement to bet a certain way. Here is the case to not bet on Floyd Mayweather for his fight against Conor McGregor.
Age: We look at it this way: has there ever been a 40-year old fighter who was a sure thing to win? Ever? Sure, fighters at 40 and beyond have thrived, won titles, and performed miraculous acts in the ring. But it was never perceived as being a slam dunk before it happened. It was always at least an iffy proposition and that was precisely because of age. Fighting is a sport where youth is served. The exceptions to the rule shouldn't detract from the hard facts that not every fighter ages that gracefully or that the ravaging affects of age aren't indeed real. Truth be told, we say Mayweather hit more solidly the older he got. And two years added doesn't figure to do wonders for that equation.
Rust: Sure, Floyd gets judged by different standards. We have seen him bounce back from long layoffs before. Most recently, he was masterful in shutting down the great Juan Manuel Marquez following a 2-year layoff. Still, that was a number of years ago, when the body is more-resilient and you can bounce back easier from inactivity. The fact that there is a term called "ring-rust" attests to its place in boxing analysis. There is a school of thought that older fighters who have been through it all can stand to gain from taking a breather. Fair enough, but with his age it just adds another layer of doubt that makes taking a huge favorite like Floyd a less-comfortable feeling.
Odds: Let's just say Floyd isn't always the most "wagerable" of fighters. With a long run of dominance, he's been a large-sized favorite for many years. There's always the prop bet angle, but taking Floyd by any other method of victory other than decision isn't so advisable with merely a pair of KOs in the last dozen years. Granted, he has never lost and the punishment he has taken is a manageable amount. But when talking a fighter with odds of -600 and up, you'd like to do it with a fighter who isn't 40 and coming off a two-year hiatus. By the same token, many people think Floyd's odds for this fight are pretty reasonable, being that he's fighting a debuting pro boxer. We just know that not everyone betting on boxing is all that thrilled on getting 12% back on their money. It's understandable.
The Fallacy of Betting on Principle: A lot of people are going to take a betting position on Mayweather based entirely on the idea that a 49-0 Hall of Famer cannot lose to a fighter making his pro debut. We're not even saying that this feeling is wrong. But it's a case of betting on principle, rather than truly handicapping the fight at hand in an even-tempered way devoid of grandstanding and emotion. When you look at a fight and base a pick based on principles, the fighters themselves become almost afterthoughts. You could just pluck in any two names, one from boxing and one from MMA, and arrive at the same conclusion. And any time you fail to account for the specific strengths and weaknesses of each fighter and how that will play off against each other, you're not handicapping fights properly.
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The Element of the Unknown: Floyd comes from a long amateur career, followed by a long professional career that is two decades long. In all those fights, he has taken on other boxers. While those boxers had various styles and different things they did really well, they still all fell into a certain framework. As Floyd became champion, there was nothing in which he was unaccustomed. He had seen it all before. Conor McGregor as an opponent certainly has his drawbacks in terms of experience and maybe ability, he does offer a different look that Floyd hasn't seen. While that would certainly affect Conor with it being his first pro boxing match, there's also an element of newness in this for Mayweather.
The Affect of Retirement: When Floyd retired before, it wasn't taken seriously. Everyone knew he would be back. Floyd knew it, as well, so he never "turned it off," so to speak. This last retirement seemed more-likely to stick. Sure, it seemed like maybe we hadn't seen the last of Mayweather, but there was a good chance he was done. This special matchup where the windfall was earth-shattering was the only thing that was going to bring him back. So maybe he had really turned the page on this part of his life. And once that pilot light goes out with a fighter, it's not always as easy as it seems to re-fire it. He has made a ton of money and was enjoying a more leisurely existence. Not that he won't again be Mayweather because that might be far-fetched, but it's just another item to ponder and at the end of the day, there are many such items of concern for a favorite as big as Mayweather. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Mayweather vs. McGregor fight from home by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
