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X-Factors for the Mayweather vs. McGregor Fight

X-Factors for the Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor Fight

By Loot, Boxing Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

An X-factor is an unaccounted-for piece of information that could throw a different light on whatever the common perception is. The common perception for the Mayweather vs. McGregor fight is that Floyd will easily win. After all, he's a 49-0 legend who knows every in-and-out of the sport taking on a debuting pro fighter. The story sort of writes itself, doesn't it?

We decided to take into account some items that could throw this fight analysis into a funk. We see a lot of voices, many of them highly-respected, who are giving McGregor no chance. They are almost too confident. And when people are too confident, that's the first bad sign that something is being overlooked. Not that these areas of concern will have much of a factor on the fight, but if McGregor somehow managed to pull off the improbable, it would be because some of these things came into play.

Size: Mayweather once won national amateur titles at 106 pounds. He won pro titles as low as 130 pounds. With age and added man-size, he eventually settled in as a 147-pounder, one who has moonlighted a few times at 154 pounds. But 154 is definitely the high-end for Mayweather and the opposite for McGregor. Whereas Mayweather will enter the ring at close to the poundage of the contracted weight, McGregor looks to add at least 16 pounds after the weigh-in, meaning he will enter the ring in the 170's.

A pretty salient case can be made that this isn't good for McGregor. Already facing a speed deficit, adding a lot of weight in a short period of time could slow him down even more. At the same time, there is something to be said about size in this sport. McGregor is the bigger athlete. It still seems a bit strange that Mayweather didn't do more to exact certain advantages for this fight. From the weight to the glove size, you have to respect Mayweather for leaving McGregor with no excuses. But he could end up paying for not setting more-difficult conditions for McGregor to overcome. And weight is one of the key ones.

Magic: When we discuss magic in this context, we're not talking about pulling a rabbit out of a hat. Then again, that is part of it. There are special fighters that come along that have a dash of magic when they perform. They're able to create something special. They're able to generate the improbable. McGregor has that, aided in large part to a dynamite left hand that creates a lot of mayhem when it connects. But beyond individual fighting assets, it's more of an innate thing that some of the best athletes have. It remains to be seen if McGregor can duplicate that magic touch in a boxing ring, but Mayweather is taking on a man who has a certain element of magic that can't be overlooked even if every straightforward analysis paints his chances in a negative light.

The Mayweather Mirage: Mayweather is a tremendous former champion and his record is above reproach in many ways. The amount of good and even great fighters he has beaten is not something that can be written off in any kind of reasonable way. But that doesn't mean he wasn't cautious in the opponents he fought. Going back a decade, a lot of his wins were perhaps less-impressive than they appear on paper. That's really hard to say considering his dominance, but bear with us for a moment.

There was the KO of Ricky Hatton, who was moving up to face Floyd and was probably at least a tick past his peak. Juan Manuel Marquez was at least two divisions smaller than Floyd. Shane Mosley, who had Floyd in some trouble, was old and inactive coming into that bout. Victor Ortiz was not a true winner. Canelo Alvarez was green and weight-drained from making a catch-weight. Robert Guerrero was not truly an elite fighter. Mayweather struggled with Marcos Maidana, who was given no chance and has not been heard from since. The fight against a compromised Pacquiao came several years too late. The Berto fight was a nothing fight against a fighter past his prime.

Now, going through Mayweather's fight-by-fight record and looking for something negative isn't necessarily going to get us anywhere. It's admittedly nit-picky and you can take the best fighters in history and be negative about any win if you try hard enough. But it's still fair to say that Mayweather was pretty savvy and calculating in choosing his opposition throughout his career. And just maybe, it created an image that is more fearsome and invulnerable than what is really the case.

McGregor's Outside the Box Approach: It's true that McGregor will be in his first boxing match. Furthermore, that lack of experience serves as a major roadblock when attempting to forecast a victory for the bombastic Irishman. But a byproduct of that inexperience could actually serve to be an asset for McGregor and that is his unconventional fighting approach. For his entire life, Mayweather has been taking on opponents who are firmly grounded in the boxing tradition. All his opponents fell within a certain framework, even if the styles were different. They still all were within a familiar dynamic for Mayweather.

McGregor presents a completely different look. While McGregor's lack of nuance and his loose handle of the sport's finer points could very well end up being the reason he loses, there is another way of looking at it. McGregor's stance, movement, and overall approach to fighting will be unique for Mayweather, if nothing else. Mayweather is the undisputed master of neutralizing other boxers, but that's all within a context with which he is ultra-familiar. With McGregor's approach to fighting, including his delivery of punches and the way he stands and positions his body, it will provide Mayweather with a look in which he is unaccustomed.

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Self Belief: A lot of lost bets have been made in all sports by those thinking that gaps in talent can be overcome with willpower. In most instances, talent, ability, and experience trump willpower and desire. There is something unique, however, about McGregor's self-belief and ability to actualize his goals. To go from a nobody fighter in the UK to an international fighting superstar in just several years is a long walk to make. It requires a certain level of mental power that can't be overlooked. He has accomplished everything he has set out to do. He may have taken some losses in the process, but that's beside the point. For those betting on McGregor, they can at least have the peace-of-mind in knowing their money is behind a fighter who is utterly convinced he will win. In other words, he's not going to beat himself and Floyd will have to beat that self-belief out of him. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the big Mayweather vs. McGregor fight by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!

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