Betting on Early Season College Basketball Games
By Loot, NCAA Basketball Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Early in the NCAA basketball season, there are some key elements at play. Some can be a help to the bettor, while others might spell trouble. Knowing some of the ins and outs of college basketball betting early in the season can give you a leg up, as no one wants to get off to a bad start. We want to hit midseason in full-bloom, not wilting from the beating we took early in the year.
Early in the season, the betting action is just warming up. Not everyone who will be betting college basketball is doing so early in the season. In other words, the lines will potentially move less. The reduced betting action usually results in more vulnerable point-spreads. We might be operating a little bit in the element of the unknown with the lack of information in the early-season. But if we are able to develop a good read on a game, the chances are higher in the early-going to see some lines that are more out-of-whack. As the team become better-defined and the betting action picks up, the bookies’ lines generally become better.
Younger teams are more likely to struggle in the early-season. A team returning no starters or just one guy will be better-rounded into shape by the late-season. But in the early-going, they’re still finding their bearings and the coach is probably experimenting with different packages. In other words, the gap between an experienced team and a young one is likely to be bigger early in the season.
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The same can also apply to new coaches. They’re trying to work guys into a new system. A lot of it gets meted out during training camp, but the early-season can still be a time of development, whereas a more experienced team is more apt to get toff to a good start. A new coach needs time to become familiar with his new team, as they get accustomed to the new skipper.
You can also use this time of the season to exploit differences you might find in a team’s actual worth and the public’s perception of that team. While doing your preseason research and making judgments, you will usually be able to determine a few teams that will be overrated or underrated, which could lead to some early-season covers.
There are, however, some textbook reasons why many betting men treat the early-season with kid gloves. We can try to gauge how a team will play based on all the information we scoop up during the preseason. But they’re just ideas. We don’t really know until we see the team. early in the year, we have no results to work off of. If we use the previous season’s info, the team might not be the same squad, so it can be misleading.
The information early in the season can be scant. The games at the beginning of the season collide with a lot of different sports. Baseball is just wrapping up and NFL is heating up. So is college football. In November and December, college hoops is taking a backseat to a lot of sports. You won’t be able to watch as many games as you would in January and February. For some, this lack of coverage can lend itself to a shortage in the information and familiarity areas.
Urgency is a big part of betting on college hoops. A team playing a conference rival is likely to be sharper than when they play a no-name opponent at the beginning of the season. When we wager on early-season match-ups in a game like, say, North Carolina vs. Gardner-Webb, the Tar Heels know they’re going to win. They might use the game to work on some different things. That could make it harder to cover a big number.
That doesn’t mean to start betting on the obscure underdog in every early-season game against a typical national power. A lot of teams are so outmanned in the talent category that it might not even matter if the favorite is not that serious about the game. Some teams can’t hang regardless of the favorite’s sense of urgency. What we want to do is use the early-season as a time to warm up. We make a stand when we find good value, but our standards in the early-season should be as high as they normally are. Just because the early-season is more of a guessing game doesn’t mean we should lower our criteria when making a wager.
