College Basketball Betting Strategy: Having a Master Plan
By Loot, NCAA Basketball Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
We develop and maintain plans for everything in life to a certain degree. Going to the store requires a plan, but it needn’t be as thought-out as opening a business, for example. The more urgent and difficult the situation is, the more comprehensive our plans become. Becoming a proven winner at college basketball is in fact extremely difficult. Let’s just say there are more guys playing college hoop than there are guys consistently earning money at it.
Its difficulty serves to remind us of the importance of having a plan and sticking to it. This is a plan that will keep you protected, while requiring you to prove yourself before rising up to the next level. It requires patience and the ability to master your emotions--something that is easier said than done when betting college hoops.
Start off with a bankroll of $500. The vast majority of the bets we make are straight bets against the spreads and totals (over-under betting). We bet the same amount on every game and each bet stays within a 2%-3% window of our total bankroll. Starting off with $500 means your bets never venture outside the $10-$15 range. In addition, our weekly exposure of our bankroll never exceeds 25%.
Betting like this insulates you from the inevitable swings of bad fate that you WILL experience when betting college basketball. People who bet significant chunks of their bankroll on individual games are only one bad run from being busted. Sticking to this plan doesn’t mean you won’t lose, but when you do, it doesn’t result in your being placed on the extinction list.
This may sound like a boring path to commit to and it will seem even less-exciting when you’re doing it. It’s a grind--make no mistake. The goal is to turn that $500 into $550 in one month. That sounds like tiddlywinks and it is. But that same 10% will soon be applied to bigger numbers and then things get exciting. It takes time.
Experience takes time. You don’t have the chops to be a big-time college hoops bettor at the moment. If you did, you’d be doing it. Sticking to what may seem like a path of drudgery will actually enable you to build the very experience you will need when making hefty-sized wagers on a regular basis.
In other words, look at your phase of small growth as an opportunity to build experience and ability. It’s a fair situation. If you’re good at betting college basketball, it should manifest when betting 2-3% of your total bankroll. Maybe not right away, but at some point. Pretty soon, the bankroll is $1000 and those bets are getting bigger. If you continue to illustrate the necessary ability, your bankroll will continue to grow and then you make bigger bets. Not before.
Another important consideration is to fully acknowledge the limits of your knowledge. This is true in any form of sports-betting, but it takes on even greater meaning when wagering on college basketball. Unless you’re Rainman, chances are there is a lot you don’t know about in college hoops. Stick to what you know and when you develop a solid handle on other teams, you can think about betting on them. Until then, be honest with yourself and don’t venture into the unknown. Otherwise, we run the risk of gambling for the sake of gambling or thoughtlessly placing wagers in an effort to recoup lost money.
In college basketball, there are teams you will be able to bet that are pretty low-end. The football equivalent in terms of prestige would never get within a mile of any betting board. That increases the challenge to the college hoops betting man to remain in his wheelhouse. We’ve all been there before and thought “Oh, I’m gonna double up on the Iona-Siena game.” Win or lose, having those types of thoughts are the beginning of the end.
Your goal is to have the question “Can I make it betting on NCAA basketball?” answered by the quality of your picks. Sticking to this plan enables it to at least come down to that--your actual handicapping ability. Not whether or not you steamed off all your cash. Or that you bet on a bunch of stuff you had no business betting. Or if your decision to “go for it” just so happened to coincide with a bad run of fortune. Let it come down to whether or not you’re any good at wagering on college basketball.
Lastly, increase your odds of winning without even making a bet! At -110 odds, you have to win 52.38% of your wagers to break even. If you lay only -105 odds, the breakeven point drops to 51.19%! Dump your expensive bookie TODAY and start wagering on games at discounted odds at 5Dimes!
