Air Force Falcons (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Boise State Broncos (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Friday, September 13, 2013 at 8PM EST
Where: Bronco Stadium, Boise, Idaho
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: Air Force +22/Boise St. -22
Over/Under Total: 52
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In a Mountain West battle, the Air Force Falcons head to Idaho to take on the Boise State Broncos. The Broncos got off to a rough start this season with an unexpectedly-lopsided loss to Washington, before righting the ship a bit last week with a 49-point win over Tennessee-Martin. Air Force, meanwhile, is still licking its wounds after a disheartening 32-point home loss to Utah State. In their opener, they beat Colgate. They are naturally significant underdogs in this Friday matchup.
So maybe Boise State has fallen from their status of a few years ago, where they were in national discussions and a representative of the lower-end conferences. Getting thrashed at Washington is a disheartening sign, but it happens in this sport. It had gotten to the point recently where the once-solid value Broncos started to get too much respect from oddsmakers. Before beating Tennessee-Martin by 49 last week, they had only covered twice in their last 8 games.
One shouldn’t be so quick to write off Boise State. While not the power of old, they still have a lot going for them. The loss to Washington looks bad now, but the Huskies might prove themselves to be a pretty darned-good team when it’s all said and done. There was a time when Boise State wouldn’t have caught flack for losing on the road to a good Pac-12 team. In a sense, they’re victims of their own success.
Still, to beat this Air Force team, Boise State just needs to show up. Air Force beat Colgate, but so what? Then, they took a drubbing at the hands of Utah State at home. Utah State has come along in the past few years and are a pretty good squad, but to see the 8-point underdog Falcons get toasted by 32 points offered a bleak outlook for this season. And this is probably no way to boost confidence--coming into Boise to face what almost assuredly is going to be a sound beating.
Betting on Air Force can suck in situations like this. They’re going to fall behind--that’s out of the gate. We all know that. And how are they going to try to mount a comeback? Not by throwing the ball, that’s for sure. Air Force’s style of offense makes those Knute Rockne Notre Dame teams look like Air Coryell. For a team named “Air Force,” it’d be nice to see a hint of an aerial attack. We’re joking around a little, of course, but when betting on a team, it can be a little frustrating to watch. That kind of game plan might work against Colgate, but let’s face it, we could have played for Colgate if we had applied ourselves. Colgate followed their loss to Air Force with a loss to Albany for crying out loud. Not to overstate the quality of this Boise State “D,” but they’re going to know what’s coming and it’s difficult to imagine Air Force scoring a lot of points. It basically comes down to whether their defense can avoid getting run over and trampled.
There are a few things that prevent one from just forking over their money on Boise State. There’s a funny kind of dynamic in college football where a bad team is never as bad as it looks. You look at a team and see a bunch of bad signs and expect them to be really horrible. Then you tune in and for some reason, they almost always play better than you expected. Boise State’s run “D” is also another potential problem area. Against Washington, they got torched for 268 yards on the ground and even Tennessee-Martin’s DJ McNeill ran for 87 yards and a touchdown against this unit.
At least Boise QB Joe Southwick restored some confidence with a 5-touchdown performance against Tennessee-Martin. Most of the starters were pulled by the second half and should be fresh for Air Force, who is coming off a draining home thumping. Southwick is looking to make strides so that his considerable aerial attack can take flight. Considering this Air Force “D” gave up a 360-yard/5-touchdown performance at home to Chuckie Keeton last week, it’s not hard to imagine Southwick having a good game, as he continues to develop.
Still, with Boise State, we bettors may have to get our heads wrapped around the fact that this isn’t the same entity of a few years ago. All the main tools from the Kellen Moore glory era are now gone and if either of their first two games tells a story, it’s probably the beating they absorbed at Washington more than their whipping of Tennessee-Martin. Still, they should be good enough to beat Air Force handily at home. By 23 or more points? It’s iffy, but certainly doable.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: If you have to bet this game, take Boise State giving 22 points.
