Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. Mississippi Rebels (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday, September 17, 2016 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi
TV: CBS
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: ALA -9.5/MISS +9.5
Over/Under Total: Off
In a big SEC matchup, the top-rated defending champion Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford in pivotal week three action. Ole Miss started the season by blowing a 28-6 halftime lead and losing by 11 to Florida State. They righted the ship somewhat in week two with a perfunctory 38-13 win over FCS foe Wofford. But they have some ground to make up and look to do so against an Alabama team that might be top-rated, but also lost to Ole Miss, 43-37 last season, the only blemish for the Tide in their championship season. Alabama, meanwhile, mauled USC in week one, 52-6, before scoring a routine win over Western Kentucky on Saturday, 38-10.
Ole Miss' week one loss to FSU was really a bizarre evening. Ole Miss couldn't get anything wrong early, as they picked apart the "D" with impunity. Jim Kelly was on TV celebrating his nephew Chad's success, as the lively-armed quarterback was slinging the ball all over the field and making the Seminoles defense look like dogmeat. For as high-flying as the Ole Miss offense was in that first half, the FSU offense was that much more explosive in the second half, hammering the Mississippi "D" en route to a 45-34 win. Ole Miss was able to beat Wofford the next week, but it looked like they were still a bit deflated after such a monstrously-disappointing week one game. They beat Wofford, 38-13, without a hint of real stress, but they were favored by 43 points.
Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly has a big arm and some real weapons at his disposal. After throwing three picks against FSU, he was able to avoid the pick against Wofford, while throwing three TD passes. Two of Kelly's top receivers from last season, Evan Engram and Damore'a Stringfellow lead the way again this season, with an ensemble cast of other threats and developing red-zone scoring threats. Akeem Judd looks to be getting the most touches in the run-game, though that does not appear to be the Rebels' bread-and-butter this season—or at least not yet. Against the Alabama secondary, they might have to be more versatile, though this is a lot of the same cast of players that were able to beat Alabama last season.
Even with Wofford running the ball almost exclusively against Ole Miss, they were still able to get some business done against Ole Miss on the ground. And that follows what was an absolutely damning performance in the second half against FSU. It was horrifying. They couldn't stop much of anything, which was bizarre in light of a fine first half performance. Again, they found a way last season to stop a full-on Alabama offensive explosion, but if any version of the "D" from the second half of the FSU game surfaces on the field this Saturday, you can forget a cover, much less a win for the Rebels.
With Alabama's Blake Barnett and Jalen Hurts collaborating on a week one destruction of USC, it was Hurts who got the start against WKU. He's the first true freshman to start at Alabama in over 30 years and will get his first taste of SEC action this week. Receiver Calvin Ridley came alive in week two with 9 catches, 122 yards, and a TD catch. For the second straight week, ArDarius Stewart was productive through the air with 90 yards and a TD. They're also getting a big assist with Bowling Green graduate transfer Gehrig Dieter and stalwart TE OJ Howard, a big-game presence you can't neglect to account for in matchups like this.
On the ground, Bama is led by Damien Harris, who was quiet with 45 yards against WKU. They didn't stress the run so it's hard to judge them based on a game where they didn't need to really ask the question, as horse handicappers say. Still, games like this might be a good time to start asking if they can find a way to replace the production of departed star back and Heisman winner Derrick Henry. The answer is probably no. But maybe they can piece together enough production on the ground, while the aerial attack grows in experience and stature. A lot of it comes down to Jalen Hurts' development.
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Another area of possible relief comes from a solid Tide defense. Giving up no touchdowns to USC, the first time that's happened in nearly 30 years, was the first sign that this defense might be the real deal. On Saturday, interception-machine S Eddie Jackson picked one off and returned it 55 yards for a touchdown. Ronnie Harrison also picked one off. Marlon Humphrey took an interception back for a TD in week one, as well, with the 'Bama defense again chipping into the overall team cause.
We can break this game down until we're blue in the face as far as weighing out both teams' strengths and weaknesses, it often times comes down to the matchup and how two teams mesh when they hit the field. And no matter what the teams represent in terms of pluses and minuses, the bottom line is that Ole Miss has beaten Alabama the last two times they played. There were a lot of reasons why they couldn't the last two years, but they did. This is in a lot of ways the biggest game of the season for Ole Miss and their effort has been reflecting that for the past few years. At home against a team they know they can beat, I see the Rebels again being competitive and covering the spread.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Ole Miss Rebels plus 9.5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the 'Bama vs. Ole Miss game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
