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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tennessee Volunteers Point Spread - Pick

Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS)
College Football Week 7
Date/Time: Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee
TV: CBS

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Betting Odds: ALA -13/TENN +13
Over/Under Total: 58

The Alabama Crimson Tide come to Neyland Stadium to face the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday in a heavyweight SEC matchup. The thrilling Vols have already packed a season of dramatics into 6 games and it was no different on Saturday, when another unlikely comeback fell short in overtime to Texas A&M, 45-38. 'Bama had more of a calm week six game, beating Arkansas, 49-30. They face a back-to-back road test with Tennessee on the back end of it. Who comes out ahead this week?

Tennessee is the midst of a brutal 4-game stretch and it's hard to criticize them for too much considering what they've been able to soldier through so far in 2016. Sure, they could have beaten Texas A&M if not for a downpour of turnovers, which would have put them in a great spot for this game. But despite coming up short to A&M, a win here would make that a lot easier to forget. You're not going to find any teams more battle-tempered that the Vols, who have experienced the full spectrum of emotions this season.

It's been a bumpy road to this point for Tennessee. The season began with them needing overtime to beat Appalachian State. They followed that with a 21-point road win over a resurgent Virginia Tech team and another win over Ohio. Against both Florida and Georgia, they overcame monstrous deficits to win in heart-pumping fashion. Against the Aggies, they fell behind 28-7. After fighting so hard in previous weeks, it looked like the Volunteers had hit a wall. Again, they rallied and a Joshua Dobbs to Alvin Kamara TD throw tied it and sent it to overtime. But just as turnovers got them into trouble initially, it also brought their game to an end, as Dobbs was picked off as he tried to answer A&M's touchdown score. It's a bottom-line business, but again, one should perhaps temper their disappointment of the Volunteers with some wonderment on what they've done.

The schedule now brings the Tide to town. Last season, the Volunteers lost narrowly to the Tide, 19-14. This offense has most of the contributors from that group, with Dobbs, Kamara, RB Jalen Hurd (questionable), and WR Josh Malone. Tennessee couldn't stop Derrick Henry, who is now gone. And maybe a better-looking Tennessee team can make more things happen. At the same time, it's fair to ask what's in the gas tank at this point. You'd think Alabama would be fresher mentally and physically for this game.

Both sides of the ball for the Volunteers have consistency issues. On one hand, these comeback wins are great. But they're also indicative of an offense and defense that can play with wide ranges of form even within the same game. The offense can score in spurts, but often goes into slumps. And the defense is at least capable of playing with urgency and allowing the offense to come back by tightening up, but a lot of these games find the "D" not ready to hit the ground running as opponents pack on the first-half scores. Injuries haven't helped, particularly to playmaking linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin (questionable).

Alabama hasn't been tested so severely, but it hasn't been all easy, either. In a tough road game against Ole Miss, Alabama was looking at a large deficit and came all the way back. Otherwise, it's been pretty easy thus far for the Tide. They did give up 30 to Arkansas on Saturday, but they never seemed to be close to losing control of the game. It was their third win in conference and they are now headlong into the tough part of the season with the Razorbacks, Tennessee, and then A&M the following week.

The Alabama offense did its job on Saturday in a tough road spot against a capable Razorbacks bunch. QB Jalen Hurts threw a pick, but was otherwise effective, as he saw some key weapons re-enter the fold. After missing some time, RB Damien Harris ran for 122 yards on just 13 carries, while Joshua Jacobs added some big scampers. Bo Scarbrough added a TD run, while the nifty-moving Hurts added two scores with his legs. Hurts also got a boost from the return of receiver ArDarius Stewart, who had 120 yards through the air. It was in many ways an ideal Alabama performance, other than the three turnovers, with all key guys involved.

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The Alabama defense has been excellent at times this season. And not that they should be taken to task on this, but the more-premier SEC offenses have been able to make a lot of things happen with this defense. That doesn't mean they're not good, as Ole Miss and Arkansas are going to get offensive success on the right day against any defense. They gave up a lot of big plays through the air with both of those teams and we've seen this Tennessee offense explode before, so who knows? Still, they got 5 turnovers against the Razorbacks and have scored six defensive TDs this season. Any repeat of the Tennessee turnover melee from last week will result in disaster against what might be the most opportunistic defense in the country.

With some wins that weren't ultra-demanding, Alabama might be in better shape overall for a game like this, even with it coming on the road. Tennessee is coming off a brutal patch of games where they thrived at times, but still paid a price. At the same time, you can't rule out the Volunteers. They won't die even when all the signs point that way. They've shown such resilience that to start shoveling dirt on them now seems premature. I see the Vols putting up another good fight, perhaps coming up short, but covering the big number at home.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Tennessee Volunteers plus 13 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Crimson Tide vs. Vols game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

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