Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. Washington State Cougars (4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS)
College Football Week 10
Date/Time: Thursday at 10:30PM EST
Where: Martin Stadium, Pullman, Washington
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: ASU -12/WSU +12
Over/Under Total: TBA
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On Thursday, the Arizona State Sun Devils come into Pullman to face the Washington State Cougars in a Pac-12 matchup. Last season, the Sun Devils beat the Cougars 46-7. With an opening point-spread of only 12, the Cougars are expected to be more competitive in this game. Washington State has already surpassed their win total from last year and are markedly improved. Arizona State, however, still has a lot of firepower on offense.
Offense is the Sun Devils bread-and-butter, but it was thought if this “D” could step up, they could be a team that contends for something bigger. They have All-American Will Sutton at defensive tackle and a big pass rusher in Carl Bradford, though they have suffered overall as a unit in applying quarterback pressure. Coach Todd Graham is in his second season trying to plant the seed as a former longtime defensive coordinator. The results are mixed. They did well to open the season with two straight wins, including a controversial triumph against Wisconsin. But in a 3-game stretch against Stanford, USC, and Notre Dame, they gave up 120 points, while going 1-2. But they have been more respectable in their last two games--a pair of home wins over Colorado and Washington.
At over 45 points a game, the Sun Devils are 6th in the nation in scoring offense. They are led by junior quarterback Taylor Kelly, who opened the season with 5 straight 300-yard performances. The receiving crew is deep, with Jaelen Strong leading the way with 685 yards. Already with 18 total touchdowns, RB Marion Grice continues to have a knack for finding the end zone, both running and catching.
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Arizona State did well to beat Wisconsin, to put up 62 against USC, and in smashing Washington on the 19th. But they got put in their place by Stanford and lost outright to Notre Dame as touchdown-favorites. Washington State, an improved team, still falls into the category of the teams Arizona has been thumping lately. But there are some promising signs out of Pullman and it was evident from week one.
With any luck at all, the Cougars could have beaten the now-highly ranked Auburn on their field in week one. In week two, a win over USC put wind into their sails and two more wins had them at 3-1. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but the rebuilding phase continues. And it’s not like anyone expected them to beat Stanford, Oregon State, or Oregon. The fact that they covered the spread two out of those three games is promising enough. Sprinkle into that stretch a 21-point road win at Cal and it’s safe to say Washington State isn’t feeling too bad about themselves.
Second-year head coach Mike Leach has instituted his pass-happy offense, which is actually gaining some traction as time passes. They returned a ton of starters this season and we now see an offense beginning to find its way. QB Connor Halliday is the third-leading passer in the entire nation, though his 17 interceptions are not a promising stat for potential backers. The Cougars running game is a laughingstock, as the Cougars will never be accused of having a diverse offense. But an amazing 9 different receivers are over 200 yards. It is a deep crew. Unfortunately for Washington State, the Sun Devils have been fairly resilient against the pass.
The more glaring matchup issue is how a sometimes-ragtag Cougars “D” is going to contain an offense that can really put up points when they get cooking. Coming off an almost-two week break and looking to finish the season strongly as they did last season, the Sun Devils should be putting up points. At the same time, the teams that have managed to smash the WSU “D” this season were Stanford, Oregon State, and Oregon. Arizona State is not on that level. Against Auburn, they gave up a more manageable (in terms of covering a spread) 31 points and allowed only 7 to USC. Arizona State will probably be closer to the higher range of that scale, but if Washington State can keep them in the 40-ish range, they could easily put up enough points of their own to cover the 12-point spread.
Normally, you wouldn’t feel too comfortable giving almost two touchdowns on a mid-pack Pac-12 team on the road facing a conference team that has the 6th-ranked passing offense in the country. And in this case, it is difficult to feel comfortable about it with Arizona State in this spot. But while the Cougars are rebuilding admirably, the Sun Devils should pull away late to cover the number.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the Arizona State Sun Devils minus 12.
