Auburn Tigers (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. LSU Tigers (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 7:45PM EST
Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: AUB +17.5/Louisiana State University -17.5
Over/Under Total: 57
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On Saturday, The Auburn Tigers travel to Baton Rouge to face the other Tigers--from LSU. This is an SEC West battle between two historic teams, but while Auburn has seen their program fall into disarray, LSU is still a top team. Auburn is 3-0, but the LSU Tigers are a huge favorite and for good reason.
With a lot of SEC teams worthy of attention, LSU was sort of drowned out at the beginning of the season. That might not be the case at the end of the season, with LSU looking good and getting better. Their defense has always been there, but coming off a 2012 season where they were 10th in the SEC in offense, the skepticism surrounded the offense and quarterback Zach Mettenberger.
Under new coordinator Cam Cameron, Mettenberger and the entire LSU offense looks to have taken some steps forward this season. The first good sign was a 37-27 road win over TCU. And against UAB and Kent State, this offense put up a combined 101 points. While those last two games were perhaps poor indicators, it’s fair to say their offense is not the liability is has been in the past. There are some tough games coming up, with road games at Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama--so we’ll soon see if the LSU offense is truly for real.
Auburn has taken care of business in equaling their win total from 2012, but the jury is still out. New head coach Gus Malzahn will probably help this program make an upswing, but the process is still in its beginning stages. They barely beat Washington State at home, before scoring home wins against Arkansas State and Mississippi State. They only covered the spread in the Arkansas State game. Starting quarterback and JUCO transfer Nick Marshall has been okay, with his read option and big arm. Their running game is good, with Corey Grant averaging over 9 yards a run, and Tre Mason and Cameron Artis-Payne making contributions. Marshall has also chipped in with 102 yards on the ground. Against Mississippi State, Marshall went for 339 yards in the air, indicating that the pass game is ready to take off a bit. Marshall is raw, but has some talent and if he can put it together, he may help lead a resurgent offense.
When watching Auburn, there are mild signs of improvement. The coach is a guy who can rebuild a program. There are some key pieces in place, namely at center, with some potential at safety. There is some talent at the skill positions. The schedule, while tough, could conceivably pave the way for Auburn getting back to a low-end bowl game this year. Last year they bottomed out, a mere few years after winning the BCS Championship. It’s been a steep fall from grace, but it looks like they’ve accepted their position and are moving forward.
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Their mettle will surely be put to the test against LSU. While they are still under-the-radar in many respects, at least on a national scale, they might end up being one of the very top teams in the nation when it’s all said and done. LSU’s success was going to rely on getting some breakout performances. They have received that at the QB position, the receiving game, and they’re hoping Jeremy Hill can get back into the swing of things, which he did on Saturday with 117 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries. There are 2 other weapons back there with Terrence Magee and Alfred Blue. Ball-catchers Odell Beckham, Jr. and Jarvis Landry have been big this season. But not enough can be said about Mettenberger, with 9 touchdowns and no picks. If he can continue to thrive, it will bring out the best of this offense. And with this “D,” just having a good offense will pay big dividends.
As we know by now, LSU lost a ton on defense, but we’ve arrived at the point in the evolution of this program where we shouldn’t doubt LSU’s reloading and recruiting ability. They typically come back strong in the areas of loss and it looks like they doing so again this season. Going for their 4th consecutive 10-win season, they’ve shown they can come back strong. It looks like an inexperienced secondary is whipping into shape, though not having S Craig Loston again this week wouldn’t help matters.
Auburn still has a ways to go, but this is likely reality sandwich time. Offensively, there may be limited success, but the LSU “D” is still stout and should control a coming-of-age Auburn offense. Judging by how Auburn’s defense has looked at times so far this season, look for the Mettenberger resurgence to continue this week. Still, you don’t want to discount Auburn, a team headed in the right direction. It’s just unclear whether they’re far enough along to compete with this LSU team.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take LSU minus 17.5 points.
