Baylor Bears (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Rice Owls (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Friday, September 16, 2016 at 8PM EST
Where: Rice Stadium, Houston, Texas
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: BAY -30/RICE +30
Over/Under Total: X
The Baylor Bears make the in-state trip to face the Rice Owls in Houston on Friday in week three action. The Owls are up against it, facing a team that put up 70 against them last season. And the Owls have been slow out of the gates this season at 0-2. On Saturday, they were beaten by Army, 31-14, which followed a 32-point loss to WKU on opening week. They are likely not to find much relief over a still-high-powered Baylor bunch that won its first two games. On Saturday, Baylor beat SMU, 40-13, which followed a 50-7 opening week win. Still, neither team has covered the spread in four combined games this young season.
Seth Russell is back behind center for the Bears after an untimely injury last season cost the Bears some possible better late-year results. Russell wasn't great against Rice, going 26-for-47 with a pair of picks, though he did also score on a nice TD run. On Saturday, it was a tale of two halves, with Baylor only managing a pair of field goals in the first half. When a 34.5-point favorite takes their opponent into the second half tied 6-6, it's not easy to cover spreads. But the Baylor offense got untracked after a cold period, scoring 5 second-half touchdowns. They compiled over 500 yards in total offense and still didn't look all that sharp. Perhaps the Baylor offense has become a victim of its own success, as the expectations are almost unreasonably high for a program that has been flying up and down the field for several seasons now.
The weapons are still vast for Baylor on offense. Seth Russell is one of the rising commodities in the Big 12 and if he can stay healthy, he could be big this season. Shock Linwood and Terence Williams remain strong in the backfield, though no longer having Johnny Jefferson who left the team to deal with personal issues, will hurt the ground-game. In the air, KD Cannon remains a top target, with other new faces like freshman Blake Lynch making solid contributions already. With Baylor, only so much mind can be paid to the departed firepower, with so many talented youngsters waiting in the wings.
The Baylor defense will eventually get tested in a major way. It's a part of their team that has been receding in the past several campaigns. And with a line that was decimated by departures, this extended warm-up period to the season has really come in handy. Against SMU, the Baylor "D" was pretty clutch and secured some valuable turnovers. Safety Orion Stewart had two picks, one of which he returned for a TD and S Davion Hall also had a pick, one that he returned for 62 yards. They lost some of their experience, but in the process, may have added some speed.
It was a really hard offseason for the Bears. They lost a lot, with the coach responsible for lifting them from the ashes being shown the door. They now have a chance to salvage something and not let that get them down. And while they lost some key recruits, that won't resonate until later. With Jim Grobe's steady hand as head coach and a lot of returning pieces, they are in a position to make an impact. They haven't looked terribly sharp in their first two weeks, with four turnovers and an offense that seems a little off-kilter. But after two conclusive wins, they are still poised to amplify their form when the schedule toughens up here shortly.
While they were underdogs in both of their first two games, it's been a little disappointing to see Rice be beaten so soundly in their first two weeks of the season. WKU and Army are actually better teams than many people might think and Rice wasn't expected to win either game, but things don't get a ton easier this week, even thought they are home. Senior WB Tyler Stehling is the starter this season and his first two games were so-so, with one TD throw and 3 picks, all of it not being his fault.
Playing from behind, the Owls didn't have the luxury of running the ball in the past two weeks. Their top two rushers are back with Darik Dillard and Austin Walter, though both haven't been given the rock a ton. A half-dozen different ball-catchers hauled in multiple receptions on Saturday, but the bright spots have been sparse in the first two weeks, as they scored 14 in both games. Rice isn't what you would call a terrible team. They won 5 games last season and were nearly bowl-eligible. They've gotten a bad shake scheduling-wise, being big dogs in their first three games. But they need to use this as a time to grow—something that's hard when you're losing lopsidedly.
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The Rice defense hasn't gotten a ton of support from a lukewarm offense. They gave up an average of 36 points per game last season. With a bunch of returning starters back in the mix, more was expected, but look for that to pay off when they're matched more easily. In two games, they've yet to secure a turnover. Against WKU, they were exploited through the air, while Army took them to the cleaners on the ground last Saturday with 348 yards. At the same time, being even the slightest bit resilient or clutch could pay off in a game like this where they're getting a bunch of points. A couple big plays could be enough to turn things in their favor spread-wise.
Neither team has really gotten into a groove yet. For each team, that means drastically-different things. For Rice, it's more of a case of striving for respectability. For Baylor, the goals are higher and with some recent recruiting snafus, now would be a good time to make some things happen, as they have become a less-attractive destination in the minds of some—particularly some parents. Sensing a Baylor offense that is not yet in the groove and with Rice looking to show a strong effort at home, I think the Owls can notch the cover.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Rice Owls plus 30 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Baylor Bears vs. Rice Owls game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
