Boise State Broncos (2-1 SU, 1-1-1ATS) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Friday, September 20, 2013 at 9PM EST
Where: Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, California
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: BSU +3/FSU -3
Over/Under Total: 66
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On Friday, the Boise State Broncos travel southwest to face the Fresno State Bulldogs in a critical Mountain West matchup. This game will go a long way toward determining the conference frontrunner, with each team considered the top squads in the Mountain West. Fresno State might have their chance to finally get over the Boise State hump. The Bulldogs have lost to the Broncos 7 years in a row.
Fresno State was supposed to play Colorado on Saturday, but with rampant flooding, the game was postponed. So the Bulldogs get what amounts to a semi-bye week before hosting the Broncos. Simply put, if the Bulldogs were to break their winless streak to the Broncos, this seems as good a year as any. The Bulldogs have a team. At 4-9 in 2011, they won 9 games last year and keep growing as a program with QB Derek Carr who is over 70% passing this season with 8 touchdowns and 661 yards in just two games. Carr just might have a really big game. This is the senior’s final chance to exorcise the Boise State demon. He’s probably the best player in the conference.
Boise State’s 22-point win over Air Force on Friday looks better on paper than it actually was in reality. Air Force, coming off a smashing home loss to Utah State, hung in there with Boise State for most of the game, before the Broncos puled away late. Their defense looked porous with running Air Force quarterback Jaleel Awini finding success on the ground with a pair of rushing touchdowns, and even completing a few big passes, which is unheard of for this Falcons’ offense.
A few key defensive stands in the red zone helped Boise State maintain the upper hand, but a play here or there and it could have been a different game. A similar defensive performance against the potent Bulldogs’ offense could be disastrous. At the same time, the Broncos offense looked like it began to click late against Air Force and if it does--it’s an explosive unit. Joe Southwick is hitting his stride at quarterback, going an impressive 27-29 and even running for a touchdown on Friday. RB Jay Ajayi took a step forward as a game-changing back with a 4-touchdown performance. WR Matt Miller, a nice weapon, caught 10 balls. This offense is beginning to forge its identity and if it can get a little help from the defense, they should be tough.
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Based on what they’ve shown so far this season, the Broncos “D” will have its hands full against the Fresno State offense. The Bulldogs have a deep receiving crew that is tops in the Mountain West. Coach Tim De Ruyter is now in his second season and has this squad whipped into shape. The defense has a ton of returners and should continue to grow as the season progresses. Their first few games were not terribly promising, however, giving up 51 in a one-point overtime home win over Rutgers, before beating Cal-Poly by a 41-25 score, though Fresno State seemed to slack off after building a 34-0 2nd quarter lead. The Cal Poly game is probably a bad gauge, but it was troubling to see the Bulldogs’ D-line get worn down by the Rutgers offensive line.
Fresno State has more tools than Boise State on offense, which isn’t something that is often the case. Their special teams is loaded with playmakers. It’s just that the “D” is a big question mark that looms large. Right when a bet on Fresno State starts making a lot of sense, the mind can’t help but remember a few things--Rutgers scoring 51 on them at home and how the Boise State offense always has the potential for mass production. The offense admirably bailed the Bulldogs out against Rutgers, but to watch the game was alarming. The defense simply couldn’t make one play to put the game away in a frustrating display of ineptitude. Their only stop worth mentioning is when Rutgers failed to convert a 2-pointer to win the game in overtime. Otherwise, whenever Rutgers seemed to need a big play, they got it done. That’s a scary tidbit of info coming into this game. At the same time, we can’t make any concrete judgments based on the season opener.
Derek Carr will be on a mission. He made some clutch throws against Rutgers that were absolutely gorgeous. Look for him to be laser-focused for this game, spreading around the ball with deadly accuracy to his large cast of playmakers. The Boise State offense, while more balanced than Fresno’s, lacks the explosiveness of years past. With two defenses that seem vulnerable, that might be the difference.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take Fresno State minus 3 points..
