Bowling Green Falcons (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Saturday, September 3, 2016 at 12PM EST
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
TV: Big Ten Network
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: BGSU +27.5/OSU -27.5
Over/Under Total: 62.5
The Bowling Green Falcons come to Columbus on kick-off Saturday to face the Ohio State Buckeyes. It's certainly a tough opener for the Falcons, but they showed a lot of pluck in a 10-win season in 2015, including a 7-game win streak. Ohio State was 12-1, just missed the CFP, but beat up on Notre Dame in a bowl win. They weren't that far off last season and look to increase their national stock this season.
Bowling Green had a nice season last year, but head coach Dino Babers has moved on to greener pastures in Syracuse. Former Texas Tech assistant Mike Jinks takes over the reigns and looks to keep the Falcons headed in the right direction. As far as the Buckeyes go, they are perennial powers—a remarkable 50-4 under coach Urban Meyer, including 2014 champions. Their only setback last season was a 3-point loss to Michigan State, so they nearly had a perfect season.
With Braxton Miller and Cardale Jones off to the NFL, the starting Buckeyes' QB gig falls into the hands of JT Barrett. The issue is that Barrett will need a lot of questions to be answered in the affirmative this season across a lot of areas in that offense. Ezekiel Elliott and his 1800+ yards are gone. Ditto for the three leading receivers and three starters from the offensive line. Barrett has some experience and should be fine and it's not as if Ohio State has shown to have problems reloading in the Meyer era. G Billy Price and C Pat Elfein form a nice foundation on the line, with some youngsters needing to hit the ground running. There are still issues at running back, where some young talent will need to step up, perhaps in the form of redshirt freshman Mike Weber. At receiver, Dondre Wilson, Curtis Samuel, and some other guys will need to step up.
Ohio St. lost a lot of power on the other side of the ball. They also lost one of Meyer's more-valued assistants in Chris Ash. The line needs Sam Hubbard and Tyquan Lewis to make their presence felt again after showing good signs last year with an ample pass-rush. They no longer have Joey Bosa there to help open up spaces, however. Raekwon McMillan should help a linebacker crew that will be dependent on reserves stepping into starting roles, along with some potential big-time incoming talent that could make an impact. Three key members of the secondary are gone and the rotation was pretty light, meaning that not a lot of experience returns this season. Corner Gareon Conley is good and safeties Malik Hooker and Damon Webb have some experience. That other corner slot will need to be filled capably.
New BGSU coach Mike Jinks should bring that fast-paced offensive approach he used at Texas Tech to keep the Falcons' offense operating at their typical speed. The issues on offense are that they lost most of their major pieces. Record-breaking QB Matt Johnson is gone, leaving senior James Knapke behind center. With Johnson injured in '14, Knapke played the whole season and did well enough to make him more than your typical fill-in. Backup tailback Fred Coppet had 825 yards as a reserve last season and should give this offense a good running dimension. They lose 179 catches with the departures of Roger Lewis, who left early for the NFL, and Gehrig Dieter, who transferred to Alabama. They still have Ronnie Moore, who was near 1000 yards last season, along with productive Teo Redding. Giving this offense more bite is an offensive line that remains intact. Still, it might not be the same effervescent offense of last season.
New coaching on the defensive side of the ball for Bowling Green has reportedly been taking hold in camp, with a veteran unit looking to make an impact this season—with more aggression and a hard-nosed attitude. Linebacker looks like a team strength, with a pair of playmakers in Trenton Greene and James Sanford. The secondary returns Alphonso Mack and his 6 picks with effective Clint Stephens. The line is anchored by Terrance Bush, but some answers will need to come from a source that as of now, is unidentified.
At some point, you have to defer to the magic touch of Ohio St. coach Urban Meyer. This isn't the first season he has faced issues where voids needed to be filled. And seldom has he not delivered. At the same time, this looks to be the most-daunting of all Meyer rebuilds. And the increased depth of the Big Ten could also halt their progress this season. When it comes to sheer talent, there's a ton of it on that sideline. The recruiting has been ultra-strong, as things should get worked out in the summer to have Ohio State in great shape. And it's not like they're going to need to be at full-power for a few weeks anyway.
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These games can be tricky, with the teams operating out of context. It's easier to gauge how Ohio State will do against teams like Michigan and Michigan State and Bowling Green is easier to figure out when they're playing teams like Akron and Kent State. Last season, Ohio State beat teams like Western Michigan and Northern Illinois, but didn't cover the spread. In last season's opener, with a lot more of their pieces in place, Bowling Green lost their week one game 59-30 to Tennessee.
Ohio State has some liabilities that will likely cost them this season. Just not here. They are the kinds of things that will manifest against the better teams they play, not against Bowling Green. Even the Buckeyes' iffy areas far surpass anything the Falcons are bringing to the table. Ohio State may have a lot of questions defensively, but again, they should reign supreme in this context against a team that looks like it will have cooled off from last season. In other words, the Bowling Green depreciation will resonate more and I see them having a really tough game. I see Ohio State winning by at least 30.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus 27.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus to bet your Bowling Green vs. Ohio State pick!
