Central Florida Knights (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. Louisville Cardinals (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS)
College Football Week 8
Date/Time: Friday, October 18, 2013 at 8PM EST
Where: Papa Johns Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: UCF +12.5/LOU -12.5
Over/Under Total: 52.5
Bet your Knights/Cardinals pick at an online sportsbook where you can make Central Fla. a +32.5 underdog by adding them into a 20 point super teaser! Teasers not your thing? This bookie also offers discounted betting odds (-105) which will save you BIG money: 5Dimes.
In a key AAC battle, the top ten Louisville Cardinals host the Central Florida Knights on Friday night. Louisville has their eyes on big things this year and have fulfilled their promise thus far at 6-0, despite only being 3-3 ATS. But let’s not sleep on 4-1 Central Florida, whose only loss was a 3-point defeat to South Carolina.
Central Florida has parlayed a strong defense with the growing development of offensive tools to forge a pretty tough squad that could surprise some people this year. Defensively, they are 11th in the nation in points allowed with only 16.6, while being robust against both the pass and run. They are coming off a win over Memphis on October 5, leaving them well-rested for this Friday game against Louisville. In their best win of the season, the Knights beat Penn State, who beat Michigan on Saturday. It would be a lot bigger if they were able to unseat Louisville.
Central Florida QB Blake Bortles has continued the awesome form he showed last year. He hasn’t been as dangerous with his legs, but a lot of that has to do with the explosion in form of RB Storm Johnson. The running back has 8 touchdowns and should be a big factor in this game. The Knights are also getting excellent receiving play from Breshad Perriman and Rannel Hall, with several others chiming in with timely production. So far, the Knights have been a solid choice at the betting windows, covering 4 of 5 spreads. With a good head coach in George O’Leary and coming off a 10-win season in 2012, it’s taking a lot of time for people to realize that this is pretty good team.
But Louisville is looking at perhaps their best football team ever, coming off an 11-win season that culminated in a big bowl win against Florida. They returned a lot of starters on defense and so far, they have been a shut-down unit--leading the entire nation in points allowed with a scant 7.3 per game. But let’s face it, the schedule hasn’t been terribly tough. And Central Florida, it’s fair to say, is their toughest opponent thus far in 2013. But it’s hard to not notice how stout this Louisville “D” has been against both the pass and run.
DEPOSIT $100, MAKE A $100 BET AND GET A $100 BET FREE AT SPORTSBOOK
Louisville QB and Heisman candidate Teddy Bridgewater has been excellent. He already has nearly 2000 yards on 71% completions. He has 18 touchdowns and 2 picks. The Cardinals have a quintet of dangerous receivers, led by DeVante Parker and Damian Copeland. Meanwhile, a trio of backs are carrying the run game, with Senroise Perry, Dominique Brown, and former Auburn star Michael Dyer beginning to find his stride. That’s a lot of tools for Louisville and if the defense keeps playing the way they have as the competition gets stiffer--this is gonna be a heck of a team. They already are.
A curious thing about Louisville is that despite coming out of nowhere to become a top college football team in the past two seasons--they haven’t been that great at the betting windows. Even in last year’s renaissance campaign, they were under .500 ATS and are only 3-3 ATS this season. As a national contender, they have been getting some pretty big spreads to deal with and they’re not really built for blowing teams out, especially if those teams are in any way competitive. And Central Florida is not Florida International or Eastern Kentucky. Look for Louisville to struggle a bit more in this game.
UCF has a look of a team that could be tougher than anyone is predicting. They have been doing well going back to last season and it’s like you never hear about them. On a national level, they are nearly anonymous. And while that’s understandable playing in the AAC and with so much good football already in Florida, bettors should beware of this diamond-in-the-rough squad.
The point-spread of 10.5 in Louisville’s favor is interesting. While not small, the point-spread seems to be giving some grudging respect to Central Florida and rightly so. Bortles has a lot of experience, their secondary is stacked with talent, and they have a nice cast of skill players. The question was whether their tough non-conference schedule would have them depleted by the time they faced the strength in their own conference--but they handled themselves well and came within a few points of going undefeated. Look for Central Florida to maybe not win, but give Louisville a good sweat where the Cardinals may even have to come from behind. And as far as Central Florida’s +10.5 number, you might even be able to get better than that later in the week.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take Central Florida and 12.5 points.
