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Colorado Buffaloes vs. Michigan Wolverines Point Spread - Pick

Colorado Buffaloes (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday, September 17, 2016 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan
TV: Big Ten Network

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Betting Odds: COLO +20.5/MICH -20.5
Over/Under Total: Off

The Colorado Buffaloes come to Ann Arbor to face the Michigan Wolverines in week 3 Pac-12 vs. Big Ten action. All signs are positive for the Wolverines through 2 games, as they have posted a pair of beatings to Hawaii and Central Florida. On Saturday, they dominated UCF 51-14 to go 2-0. These teams haven't played in nearly 20 years. One such game, known for the Kordell Stewart hail-Mary, will go down in history. This one isn't expected to come down to that, with Michigan a big favorite. At the same time, Colorado hasn't failed to impress in their first two games with routs over Colorado State and Idaho State. They've outscored their first two opponents, 110-14.

It will be hard to tell exactly what we have with Big Blue until they hit the tough part of their schedule. There is only so much to ascertain from games against Hawaii, Central Florida, and Colorado. But initial signs are positive. They are working in a new quarterback in Wilton Speight, who was 25-for-37 with 312 yards and 4 touchdowns on Saturday. He was perhaps nervous in the opener and seemed to come around more in week two. He was putting balls on spots and getting it downfield. They have a nice aerial red-zone presence, as TE Jake Butt caught two balls in close. WR Amara Darboh had a nice game, also catching a pair of touchdowns on 111 yards receiving. Jehu Chesson was also productive on 84 yards through the air. Against a good Central Florida "D," they were able to string together a lot of scoring drives. It's a nice way to begin a season for an unproven commodity behind center, as Speight is afforded the opportunity to warm up to the task.

UCF has a tough run-defense and that was apparent as Michigan labored in the run-game. Against the porous Hawaii run-stop, they ran wild. While Speight and the aerial attack was able to take flight, the fact that Michigan gained only 119 yards on 41 carries on Saturday was a bit bemusing. It might be something to keep an eye on as they face better teams. Still, it's a run-game that should come around. True freshman Chris Evans is the speedster, with De'Veon Bell more the punishing back. And monstrous fullback Khalid Hill has 3 TD runs already. It's a multi-pronged run-game that should come around.

The U of M defense hasn't really been tested. It was a bit disconcerting to see them yield scoring runs of 87 and 34 yards against a UCF offense that is still working on a lot of things and could barely score last season. The group will likely need to shore up a few issues before they get into the meat of their schedule. Still, in two games, they've allowed just 207 passing yards. They have some real impact in the secondary, with DB Jabrill Peppers a threat on "D," but on returns, as well. The secondary should be tops in the conference and it will be the front that ends up telling the story of the Michigan "D." And giving up 276 yards on the ground to UCF could be a red flag. At the same time, you don't want to call out a group that has given up 17 combined points in two games and allowed the team to cover the spread both times.

Not to paint Colorado as the poor doormat team, but you have to feel for them. Struggling to gain any foothold whatsoever in the Pac-12 Conference, now they have to soldier to Ann Arbor for what is one of the toughest road games in all of college football. Still, they have looked good in their first two weeks. Granted Colorado State and FCS foe Idaho State are not all that formidable, but for a team struggling to gain traction in recent seasons, a pair of dominating wins to open the season can't hurt any.

Colorado is back at it with starting quarterback Sefo Liufau, a 4th year starter looking to put some things together in his final go-around for the Buffaloes. Without a ton of great things happening for Liufau and the Buffaloes after a promising beginning to his tenure, they have one last shot to make something substantive happen. Giving a highly-ranked Michigan home team some problems would be a good start.

Liufau was 15-for-18 with a pair of TD passes in Saturday's win and has looked pretty good in his first two games of the season. Things will get much more difficult against a rigid home Wolverines "D" this week. Returning leading rusher Phillip Lindsay returns and is still their featured runner, while Liufau adds a dimension with his legs. Though they lost top receiver Nelson Spruce, they return just about everyone else from their ball-catching corps. That's a lot of production, but as the season moves into a more difficult stage, some real playmakers will need to surface. One positive development on that front was the performance of WR Kabion Ento, who caught two passes against Idaho State, his first on the team. Both went for scores. This is a team that hasn't been to a bowl for 8 years and the first two weeks are positive. But can they reasonably be expected to compete against Michigan?

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Again, the defense is hard to judge based on the first two games. But as 7-point favorites, the Buffaloes slaughtered Colorado State by 37, with the "D" allowing a much lower than forecasted 7 points to the Rams. And giving up just 7 to Idaho State and allowing under 100 yards of total offense both qualify as good signs. But holding Colorado State and Idaho State to a touchdown apiece doesn't necessarily translate to a top-five Michigan team on the road.

In their third straight game against an overmatched opponent, Michigan is probably chomping at the bit to get into the more difficult part of their schedule. There could be a slight let-up in games like this, which could give Colorado just the edge they need to come in under the big number. I see some of that happening this week, with a better-than-advertised Colorado team hanging in there to cover the spread.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Colorado Buffaloes plus 20.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Colorado vs. Michigan game at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!

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