Connecticut Huskies (2-2 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) vs. Houston Cougars (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Thursday, September 29, 2016 at 8PM EST
Where: TDECU Stadium, Houston, Texas
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: CONN +27.5/HOU -27.5
Over/Under Total: Off
On Thursday, the Connecticut Huskies come to TDECU Stadium to face the Houston Cougars in AAC action. Connecticut is 2-2 on the season, coming off a tough 31-24 loss to Syracuse. They've been right in the mix, beating Maine and Virginia, while losing close games to Navy and Syracuse. Still, they've failed to cover a spread heading into week 5. Things won't get easier this week on the road against Houston, though Connecticut is the reason Houston didn't go unbeaten last season. Their 20-17 win over Houston was the only loss the Cougars suffered all season. Look for the Cougars to remember the hard-earned lesson that you can't really afford to overlook anyone. They look pretty tough and on Saturday, they laid Texas State to waste in a 64-3 demolition to keep their unbeaten season intact.
On Saturday, Connecticut fell behind 14-0 at home to Syracuse, before some big runs put them in the end zone twice to tie the game. But the Orange held off Connecticut and won by 7. Connecticut quarterback Bryant Shirreffs threw for a season-high 264 yards with a TD and a pick. In four games, he hasn't really been able to make the aerial game click with just two TDs on the season. RB Arkeel Newsome has been useful in the last two games and he had 81 yards and a score on Saturday. They have a top receiver in Noel Thomas, who is on his way to a big season, as he had 14 catches on Saturday. They just can't really seem to get down-field and sustaining drives can be very problematic. They've scored 24 points three times in four games, while scoring 13 in the other one. What happens this week against this Houston defense? Still, it's worth noting that last season in Connecticut's big win over Houston, most of their better offensive contributors had pretty big games, namely Newsome and Thomas. Maybe they can again.
Still, the defense looks a bit dicey for Connecticut, especially after they gave up 407 yards through the air to Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey on Saturday. They couldn't cover WR Amba Etta-Tawo, who went for 270 yards receiving. For a defense that didn't look too bad in the first three weeks, it was a bad development. Corner Jamar Summers, who picked off a pass in the game against Houston is back and might be looking for redemption after the loss to Syracuse. Sure, UConn held Houston to 17 points last season, but Greg Ward was out for all but one pass and with him now in there, it might be a totally different story.
Connecticut doesn't look terribly impressive this season. In a lot of ways, they scream "mediocrity." But this is a team that can carry with it the confidence that they've beaten this team before. After a lukewarm 2-2 start, this win would really give them something to get excited about in a season that doesn't look like it's going to have a ton of highlights. But should we also expect a Houston team with heightened urgency and more of an edge that what would normally be the case when facing a team of Connecticut's caliber? Or is there just some little quirk about this Huskies team that just matches up well with a superior team in the Cougars? Or did the Huskies just luck out with Ward, Jr. not starting the game last season?
On Saturday against an overmatched Texas State bunch, Houston was in full-flight, as the game was put away in short order, with Ward, Jr. playing only briefly into the third quarter. There were other standouts on the day, as D'Eriq King caught and threw for a TD pass, while returning a kickoff for a score—the first Houston Cougars player to score three TDs in that fashion in one game. They gained 564 yards as a total offense. RB Duke Catalon ran for 70 yards and a TD, while QB Greg Ward, Jr. added a score with his legs
So far, the Houston defense has passed the test. They allowed just 23 to a powerful home Oklahoma defense. They shut out Lamar then held a potentially-explosive Cincy home offense to just 16 points. They gave up 3 points to Texas State and they look for more of that this week. And last year, they held Dalvin Cook to very little, before holding Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine to 71 combined yards in game one, showing their prowess against good running backs. It's a playmaking defense that can leave their imprint on a game.
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Houston will be facing its second quick turnaround of the season and we'll see if that has any impact. It might actually help the Cougars to be playing a team that beat them last season, otherwise this could be a potential spot for a down Cougars team to materialize. They played a Thursday game with Cincinnati following a Saturday spot against Lamar and now they're doing it again, odd for a team after just four games. It's just something else to think about in a game that has a strange feel to it, like something lurks just underneath the surface that is just beyond everyone's reach.
This is a tough road spot for Connecticut, even if they did beat this team last season. Houston looks even better on both sides of the ball and will be revenge-minded, basically eliminating any Connecticut hopes that they're going to be overlooked or that Houston could be weary with their second quick turnaround of the season. I see a Houston win, but Connecticut covers the spread.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Connecticut Huskies plus 27.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Huskies vs. Cougars game at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
