Duke Blue Devils (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS) vs. Florida State Seminoles (12-0 SU, 10-2 ATS)
College Football Week 15 ACC Championship Game
Date/Time: Saturday, December 7 2013 at 8PM EST
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: DUKE +29/FSU -29
Over/Under Total: 61.5
Bet your Duke/Fla. St. pick at an online sportsbook where you can deposit $100, place a $100 bet and get a $100 bet FREE: Sportsbook.
On Saturday in the ACC Championship, the top-ranked Florida State Seminoles face the 10-2 Duke Blue Devils at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. For Florida State, this is their last hurdle before the BCS title game. But one shouldn’t completely rule out a team in the 20th-ranked Duke that has shown great fortitude in getting to this point for a team that hasn’t ended the season ranked since the Kennedy administration.
To put this season into perspective for Duke, this is their first season above .500 since 1994. Simply put, this is the best Duke football team ever, with the possible exception of their 1941 Rose Bowl-winning team. Coach David Cutcliffe has been doing wonders for this program and even had them in their first bowl in nearly 20 years last season. This year, however, has been a bonanza for a football program that has always been considered an afterthought to Duke’s glorious basketball history. In beating Virginia Tech this year, they scored their first win over a ranked opponent since 1994 and their first road win against a ranked team in over 40 years. They followed it up with a win over ranked Miami and it’s clear this is nothing resembling the Duke of old.
Duke is led on offense by QB Anthony Boone, who has a stacked backfield and a terrific WR in Jamison Crowder, who has caught 88 balls. Jela Duncan and Josh Snead head the running game, with short-yardage specialist Brandon Connette chipping in with 13 touchdown runs on just 98 carries. Last year, they had the 107th-ranked scoring offense in the nation and are now a more respectable 40th at 33.7 points per game. Defensively, they aren’t great in any one area, but they have a knack of clamping down the more urgent the situation is. And as a betting option, Duke have been superb, covering 10 out of 12 spreads.
But let’s face it, Duke got a break this year by having Virginia Tech and Miami as their toughest opponents and they even lost to Pitt and Georgia Tech. They didn’t have to face a team like Florida State or even a Clemson, who was destroyed by the Seminoles. Florida State is on a different level than anyone Duke has faced, with all due respect and reverence to their banner campaign.
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The Seminoles are unbeaten at 12-0, with the highest-scoring offense in the land with 53.7 points a game. They also are second in points allowed with 11 per game. Throw a few results out and in most games, they’ve given up practically nothing, all the while scoring tons. That’s a tough package to beat. The offense has seen a big boost on the heels of Heisman frontrunner, freshman Jameis Winston. Even with highly-publicized personal issues swirling around, Winston has managed to remain focused. At nearly 70% completions and 35 touchdowns, his contributions have been invaluable. They have a trio of backs who have combined for 30 touchdowns in Devonta Freeman, Karlos Williams, and James Wilder, Jr. In addition, they have a trio of great receivers in Rashad Greene, Kenny Shaw, and huge 6’5” Kelvin Benjamin, who had over 200 yards last week against Florida. A lot of teams have been explosive on offense, but Florida State’s “D” really makes it all come together. They’re the total package and well-coached by Jimbo Fisher, who has done a great job accumulating gobs of talent for this squad.
It’s a conference championship and Florida State is sort of new to this position, having not occupied the top spot for a number of years. So perhaps complacency is not something that will be much at play. But is there something that might happen to a great team’s collective mindset when facing a Duke football team? Despite a historically-great season for the Blue Devils, there is just something about the name “Duke” that doesn’t elicit much fear, and therefore respect, from opposing teams in college football. That might be wishful thinking for potential Duke backers looking for a FSU letdown. Still, if a Florida State team that is looking ahead surfaces on Saturday, that could contrast wildly with a Duke team that is playing its most important game since Bobby Bowden was a kid.
Duke is outmanned from a strictly personnel standpoint. Saturday could provide a reality sandwich for a team that has undergone a remarkable turnaround, but is still a few steps away from what you would call a great football team. With a point-spread nearing 30 points, the question isn’t so much winning, but simply whether Duke can remain sort of close. In the last 8 weeks, only Miami (41-14) has kept the margin of victory within 30 against the Seminoles. I think Duke can pull it off, keeping the game within striking distance, before hanging on at the end to cover the big number.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking Duke plus 29 points.
