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Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville Cardinals Point Spread - Pick

Duke Blue Devils (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Louisville Cardinals (4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS)
College Football Week 7
Date/Time: Friday, October 14, 2016 at 7PM EST
Where: Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky
TV: ESPN

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Betting Odds: DUKE +34/LOU -34
Over/Under Total: 71

The Duke Blue Devils come to Papa John's Cardinal Stadium to face the Louisville Cardinals on Friday in ACC action. The Cardinals came down to earth in week five, coming out on the wrong end of a classic battle with Clemson, 42-36. But losing a one-score game to an unbeaten runner-up from last season's CFP is no dishonor and the Cardinals can still have some special things happen to them this season with more success. After getting a timely week off after the Clemson loss, the Cardinals host Duke, who had a nice week six road win over Army. As 5.5-point underdogs, the Blue Devils won in a grind, 13-7. What can they come up with this week against what figures to be an irritated Louisville squad?

Louisville may have lost to Clemson, but they gave the Tigers all they could handle and then some. The Cardinals trailed by 18 at the half and with 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter, they had taken an 8-point lead. Alas, they could not withstand a Clemson comeback, but the offense responded and Lamar Jackson put the team in a good position to win. For him, it was a tame performance, as he threw for a TD and ran for two. They've scored 290 points in 5 games, with Jackson throwing 14 touchdowns passes and running for 14 touchdowns. So the defense couldn't hold up its end of the bargain late against Clemson, but until that point, Louisville was the most-impressive team in the country. They didn't lose to just anybody. Look for them to be in atonement-mode, which could be bad news for the Blue Devils.

Again, it's hard to call the offense out for anything that went wrong with Louisville in week five. Jackson and Brandon Ratcliff make for a fierce running combo, with Ratcliff averaging 8.4 yards a run and the team averaging 7.1. Nine different ball-catchers have hauled in touchdowns so far this season, with the aerial attack led by Jamari Staples and James Quick. Cole Hikutini and Jaylen Smith also add production. This offense averages an enormous 659 yards of total offense per game.

Against Clemson, a lot of good defenses end up not looking so good. So it's hard to take the Louisville defense to task for not being able to curb the Clemson onslaught. They had their moments, but in the end, couldn't really register a key stop. And it was that inability to be clutch that was the most-troubling. But Louisville was involved in their first really big game in years, while Clemson was battle-tempered and more experienced in the spotlight. Look for the defense to benefit from that in the long run. This defense had been good before the Clemson game and even some of those point-totals were inflated with a lot of garbage scores. Against the likes of Duke, this defense should get back to the business of flexing its muscles.

For those looking for an angle, it's possible to be dealing with some deflation on the part of the Cardinals. The storyline could support that, with a big build-up culminating with a game against Clemson that led to a painful loss and was followed by a bye-week. Then a team that never makes headlines in college football comes into town, it might not seem like the best time for the Cardinals to cover a big number. Still, it took a lot for this team to get here and they don't seem like the kind of squad that is going to fold up like a cheap tent because of one loss.

Granted, Duke is still a ways from eliciting fear in the hearts of their toughest opponents, but they warrant a hard look after beating Notre Dame and a one-loss Army team. While Notre Dame is nose-diving, those things mean a lot to teams like Duke that are trying to forge some good momentum. And losing to Wake Forest, Virginia, and Northwestern shows they still have a ways to go. But they've shown they can win games like on Saturday where they have to resourcefully pull out wins in low-scoring games, while showing they can hang in there in a shootout scenario. They might be a tad more dangerous than what they appear to be on paper.

Duke is led by Daniel Jones at QB. His five-interception performance against Virginia makes his stats a bit rough-looking, but the freshman is seeing a lot of things for the first time and hung in there nicely against Army. He ran more than he threw and it was tough-going for most of the day. Along with Jones, they have Jela Duncan (questionable), who adds a nice dimension. It's still a pretty humdrum offense, especially considering what will be on the other sideline this week with the explosive Louisville offense.

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Duke will need to get a monstrous performance from their "D" on Friday. Against the run-heavy Black Knights, they were stout and have been in that regard for much of the season. Guys like lineman AJ Wolf have been helping apply a pretty consistent pass rush. How well that will work against Lamar Jackson is questionable, but it's not a defense that can be overlooked. It's a disruptive defense that can make things happen.

This is a tricky spot for Louisville and maybe the week off will help them get re-focused over what was a pretty painful loss to Clemson in week five. If they had to immediately follow that loss with a game against Duke, it would be a more dangerous spot perhaps. It still is, as Duke might be good enough against a Louisville team that's phoning it in on some level. But the bye week likely came at a good time, as Louisville has time to collect themselves for this last run. I think Duke, however, is good enough to keep this one from being an utter comedy. I'll take the points.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Duke Blue Devils plus 34 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Blue Devils vs. Cardinals game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

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