Duke Blue Devils (10-3 SU, 10-3 ATS) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Date/Time: Tuesday, December 31, 2013 at 8PM EST
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: DUKE +11.5/TAMU -11.5
Over/Under Total: 75
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In the Chick-Fil-a Bowl at the Georgia Dome on New Years Eve, the Duke Blue Devils take on the Texas A&M Aggies. The Aggies, with Johnny Manziel and Company, have one of the more explosive offenses in the country. Alas, they cannot stop anybody. While the odds don’t favor it, Duke is looking to add a stamp of verification to their best season in over 70 years. For Duke, a 10-win season and winning the ACC Coastal Division is huge.
A win over a high-profile SEC team would be humongous for Duke and give the program a big boost. In that sense, you could say this game means more to Duke than A&M. And despite being double-digit underdogs, it’s not like the Blue Devils are without hope. In light of Texas A&M’s defensive woes, it’s not that difficult to imagine Duke moving the chains all day long against this team. When laying 11.5 points with this A&M defense, you’re really banking on a lot of offense. If Duke can just sort of show up a little bit defensively, this could be interesting.
A&M came into this season with some high hopes, perhaps even at a shot at the BCS title game. Their defense didn’t allow those dreams to take shape. The problem certainly wasn’t the offense. But this might not be the spot for a letdown that one might think. Despite it’s inglorious name, the Chick-Fil-A Bowl usually delvers a heck of a game. This is likely to be Johnny Manziel’s last game and that should pave the way to a good performance. WR Mike Evans, a deadly weapon for Manziel and A&M, will use this time to get healthy, as he was banged-up toward the end of the campaign. When all else fails, Manziel can just heave it up there and Evans will often come down with it.
It’s not like Duke’s secondary and defense as a whole hasn’t played well this season. They have in spots. And getting shredded by Florida State isn’t anything particularly special, as the Seminoles have done that to a lot of teams this year. But it’s hard to blow off how the defense performed in games against Pittsburgh in a 58-55 loss and against Miami later, even though they won.
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With Duke, they have a team of guys who try hard and totally buy in to what coach Cutcliffe is selling. You never want to disregard a team that is capable of such a massive turnaround to their program, with this being their first season in double-digit wins. It’s not like Duke doesn’t have a lot of things going for them, namely a really good offensive line. With A&M’s troubles on defense, that’s a big match-up concern. If Duke is able to hit a groove with their offense, their overall balance could greatly trouble the Aggies. Defensively, Duke needs to play a contained game, let Manziel make some mistakes, and try to make someone else beat them with their legs. Other than Manzeil, A&M can’t really run the ball. If Duke can somehow clamp down on Manziel and Evans, they have a shot.
It’s just that Manziel can beat you so many ways. His arm is a cannon, allowing him to air out big throws. He can also drop the ball into tiny spaces. And we all know what he can do with his legs. That’s a lot of different areas of concern and Duke can’t be expected to shut all those things down effectively.
Duke’s QB Anthony Boone has been pretty good. Nine of his 11 picks came in three games. Other than that, he’s been pretty efficient. WR Jamison Crowder (96-1197-7) has been largely responsible for carrying the load in the passing game. They have a good tight end in Braxton Deaver and a heck of a short-yardage goal-line guy back in Brandon Connette, who has 13 touchdowns on 99 carries. Personnel wise on offense, they fall short of A&M, especially when it comes to weapons and variety in the passing game. But we already knew that. For Duke to have a chance, they need to contain Manziel a bit, take Evans out of the game, and turn it loose on offense and see what happens. Sure, these numbers were compiled largely in the far-superior SEC, but A&M was 106th in total defense and 111th against the run this year--not stats you want to hear when giving up 11.5 points.
Duke’s achievements are remarkable, make no mistake about it. They did manage to beat ranked teams in Virginia Tech and Miami. Florida State was a little bit of a reality sandwich, affirming what happens to Duke when facing a top-notch offense. While A&M’s lack of defense throws that comparison into a different light, something tells me they show up for this game. Manziel will showcase the full scope of his talents in his swan-song/NFL audition. That “D” is alarming, but I think Texas A&M covers the spread.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Chick Fil-A Point Spread: I’m taking the Texas A&M Aggies minus 11.5 points.
