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Florida A&M Rattlers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Point Spread - Pick

Florida A&M Rattlers (1-2 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 12PM EST
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
TV: Big Ten Network

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: FAMU +50/OSU -50
Over/Under Total: OFF

On Saturday, the Ohio State Buckeyes look to stay unbeaten as they face the Florida A&M Rattlers at home. This is a mismatch on paper, with Ohio State being one of the best teams in the country, while Florida A&M is an FCS team that plays in the MEAC. Let’s put it this way--if Florida A&M were able to win this game, it would make Appalachian State’s 2007 win over Michigan look like small potatoes.

Ohio St. has won 15 straight, going 3-0 this season after an unbeaten 12-0 campaign in 2012. They failed to cover the spread against Buffalo in their season opener, but have since handled San Diego State and Cal with relative ease, cruising to a pair of easy covers. On Saturday, they made the long trip to Berkeley as 12.5-point favorites and beat Cal, 52-34. They have been dominant and seem pumped up--even against lower-rung teams. With Urban Meyer at the helm, don’t expect too many letdowns.

One of the more promising parts of their win at Cal was the performance of QB Kenny Guiton, who was filling in for starter Braxton Miller. Guiton went for 276 yards, 4 touchdowns, and zero picks. Miller might be back on Saturday, but it wouldn’t even matter for the purposes of winning this game. They could put in anyone and still cruise to a win over their outmanned opponent. Even more disconcerting for Florida A&M is the return of Carlos Hyde, the suspended Buckeyes running back who rushed for 16 touchdowns last season. As if they needed any extra help.

We’ve seen a lot of FCS teams over the last few years accomplishing the improbable. When a FBS team faces an FCS squad, it’s not as automatic of a win as it was in years past. These teams spend their season playing other teams no one cares about, so when there is an FBS team on the schedule, they naturally try really hard to do something special. It’s the only chance for those coaches and players to dip their toes into the swimming pool of big-time college football, so they often over-perform.

In a game like this, however, a win is out of the question. That doesn’t mean Florida A&M can’t over-perform in their own way. For them, a good performance would mean that they didn’t get the absolute smithereens beaten out of them. We’re talking about an underdog of 50 points. When an underdog is so steep, you’re basically just hoping they don’t get flogged for the whole game. Basically, you’re hoping they can somehow limit the Ohio State offense to something less than a video game-type of result. Or maybe they can score 14 or more points and put the Buckeyes in the position of having to score 64 or more points to cover the spread.

It’s just that Florida A&M hasn’t even been doing that well in their own conference--in the element in which they are accustomed. They opened the year with a nice win over Mississippi Valley State, but followed that with losses to Tennessee State and Samford. Not to be snarky towards their football program, but it’s not a good sign when the biggest news to come out of your football program is a hazing death that occurred in their marching band.

Still, no matter how dysfunctional their football program might be or how outgunned they are against a good Ohio State team, it’s never fun to have to cover a spread this big. A game like this is sort of a guessing game. We really have no accurate measuring stick to determine which team will cover the spread. We can make observations and points that might suggest taking one side, but it’s steeped in speculation. These lopsided games with the super-giant spreads can be the more difficult games to call.

Ohio State has a lot of character. A lot of these guys are the same ones who went 12-0 last season with no possibility of going to a bowl. They are a prideful bunch. For Florida A&M, it may be concerning that even if the Buckeyes pull their starters when (not if) the game gets out of hand, things might not get better. A lot of those back-ups will be looking to shine and get attention that might lead to more future playing time.

One possible trickle of hope for Florida A&M is an Ohio State “D” that hasn’t always been air-tight this season. They let Buffalo score 20 and Cal put up 34. But you can’t help but wonder if the San Diego State game, where they allowed only 7 points, is a better gauge for this game. In a game like this, the bookies are trying to get people to have a reason to bet Florida A&M--something people aren’t naturally inclined to do. So maybe the point-spread is a little more gratuitous to the Rattlers. Still, if Ohio State crushed them and kept them off the board, would it really be a surprise? Coach Meyer usually doesn’t call off the dogs in games like this.

Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Ohio State Buckeyes minus 50 points.

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