Florida Gators (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Miami Hurricanes (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date/Time: Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 12PM EST
Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: FLA -2/MIA +2
Over/Under Total: 49
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On September 7, the Florida Gators make the in-state trip to face the Miami Hurricanes on Saturday afternoon. Each team managed to emerge victorious in opening week wins over their outgunned opponents. Miami won a Friday home game against Florida Atlantic, 34-6. The Gators defeated Toledo, 24-6. Neither team covered the spread.
Miami looked pretty good last Friday in a nice warm-up against Florida Atlantic. The 34-6 victory saw RB Duke Johnson having a big game with 186 yards on the ground and even making a 38-yard reception. Stephen Morris was so-so, with a 15-27 performance with 160 yards. Miami was robust in the run, putting up 303 yards. Again, that was Florida Atlantic. Look for the Gators to provide more resistance.
It was an ideal game for a young Miami team to establish themselves. The Miami run “D” looked a bit dicey at times, which would be costly against Florida. There is a lot of talent on that side of the ball for the ‘Canes and if they can come together, this unit could be a surprise under defensively-minded head coach Al Golden. On offense, they are banking on a rising commodity in Morris, while riding on the back of Duke Johnson, who is rounding into one heck of a contributor. Miami returns a lot of starters on both sides of the ball. The offense is coming back more experienced and the entire D-line is intact. If they can pressure some opposing quarterbacks, look for a pretty decent season for Miami
Obviously, roughing up the Florida Atlantic offensive line is in no way an accurate barometer for whether this ‘Canes defense can hang with the big boys in the SEC. An untested Miami “D” gets thrown in the deep end here with the jumbo-sized Florida O-line. They face a tip-top running game and we will see if this Miami “D” is in fact improved or just looked good facing an undermanned opponent.
Florida’s win over Toledo offered glimpses of both hope and concern. Driskel was very efficient, going 17-22 in the air. With 262 yards on the ground, the Gators did a good job controlling the game on the ground--with Mack Brown running for 112 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The offensive line looked robust and athletic as they controlled the line of scrimmage. In addition, the defense held a good Toledo offense to only a pair of field goals.
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Then again, we already knew Florida could run the ball and that their defense was going to be tough, especially on a MAC team like Toledo. With a passing game that ranked last in the SEC in 2012, the issue going into 2013 is whether Florida can lend more balance to their offense and develop a reliable aerial attack. And against Toledo, it didn’t really happen. Driskel was 17-22, which is good, but the passing game wasn’t terribly impressive in an overall sense.
Miami’s “D” is still unproven. It takes more than holding Florida Atlantic to 6 points to show they are headed in the right direction. Against Florida, they are facing a legit offensive line with a lot of offensive tools on the field. It’s hard for a potential Miami betting man to not at least wonder how the Hurricanes are going to deal with Florida’s smash-mouth style. Florida may not have the best balance on offense. They are still a winning SEC team with a good “D” and the ability to pound the ball down their opponent’s throats.
With Morris, Johnson, and others, Miami’s offense could be something special by the time it’s all said and done. Even if you think Miami’s offense stacks up decently with Florida’s, the defense is what separates these teams. Al Golden might end up having a good Miami “D” as the season carries on, but as of now, we have one of last year’s worst defenses with only a good performance against Florida Atlantic to hang their hats on so far this season. This game is very critical in determining how far this unit has really come around.
Miami’s offense is a rising commodity, but it’s not necessarily where it’s going to eventually be. You’d almost like to see this offense prove a few things before being thrown into this test with this Florida “D.” Miami has been getting a lot of credit for being improved--and rightly so. It’s just hard to ignore some matchup concerns with the Hurricanes, namely if this offense can take flight against a team like Florida and if the Gators deep running game won’t run all over Miami’s defense. Miami is a team that is going places. The question is are they now ready or will it take more time before they can start beating teams like this?
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I like the Hurricanes to win straight up in what will likey be an all out battle until the end.