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Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers Point Spread - Pick

Florida Gators (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday, September 24, 2016 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee
TV: CBS

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Betting Odds: FLA +7/TENN -7
Over/Under Total: 43.5

The Florida Gators come to Knoxville to face the Tennessee Volunteers in SEC action on college football Saturday. Last Saturday, Tennessee was able to stretch their record to 3-0 on the season. They beat Appalachian State in week one, before scoring a nice road win against Virginia Tech in week two. Last week, they beat Ohio, 28-19. Favored by 27, the Volunteers weren't impressive perhaps, but they are 3-0 and now come the real tests. Florida is also 3-0, coming off a dominant 32-0 win over North Texas. In three games, they've given up just 14 points and hope their defense can have similar success on the road against the Volunteers.

If anything, Tennessee was consistent on Saturday, scoring a touchdown per quarter in what was a disappointing offensive display against an Ohio team that gave up 56 to Texas State in week one. Tennessee has perhaps begun the season slowly, but that's not always a reliable way to evaluate teams, especially ones that haven't lost a game. They haven't flown out of the gates, but they didn't need to, either. Still, needing overtime to beat Appalachian State and then being in a big old grind with the MAC's Ohio Bobcats doesn't necessarily suggest an SEC contender, either. But a 21-point road win at Virginia Tech just might. This is the season that Tennessee was supposed to once again make some sort of national splash. The verdict is still out on that.

Much of Tennessee's fortunes rest on the young shoulders of dual-threat quarterback Joshua Dobbs. He hasn't been at his sharpest, with a pick in each of his first three games to go with his 6 TDs. He has also run in three touchdowns. Whatever the case, the Volunteers have now won nine straight games going back to last season. As usual, Dobbs was a big part of the run-game on Saturday, joined by Alvin Kamara and Jalen Hurd. Junior receiver Josh Malone has been impressive in an increased role and has 4 TD catches already. But there have been mistakes, penalties, and a lack of overall mental focus at times with this side of the ball.

Injuries and suspensions have also taken their toll on both sides of the ball for Tennessee. We will need to keep an eye this week on how some of their players progress this week. DB Malik Jefferson was suspended for a violation of team rules. Also, key corner Cam Sutton and LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin were lost during the game. Sutton's injury was considered potentially serious and they join already-injured LB Darrin Kirkland, Jr., DE LaTroy Lewis and receiver Josh Smith. That's a lot of key pieces, especially on defense. As a team is getting ready to get into their conference schedule, it's bad time to be dealing with such a rash of personnel issues. About half of the starting defense is iffy heading into this game.

The Volunteers have made it to 3-0, they've won 9 straight, and they have a unique talent at offense in QB Joshua Dobbs. They're ranked and reserve the right to improve from one week to the next. There are some bad signs, however, and it's not just the injuries. They seem mistake-prone to open the season—both in terms of poor execution, fumbles, and penalties. They can patch it up against teams like Ohio, but won't be able to camouflage all those inadequacies against Florida, a team that has beaten them 11 straight times.

It's been smooth-sailing in 2016 this far for the defending SEC East champion, other than an injury issue to their QB suffered on Saturday. A 24-7 win over Massachusetts opened the season, before the Gators beat Kentucky 45-7. With the 32-0 win over North Texas, they have now outscored opponents 101-14. Look for stiffer competition this week against the unbeaten Volunteers. Still, since last season, the Gators have been a program on the rise and they look to be a top contender to win the division again. This game could end up deciding the East.

Against North Texas, the Gators relied more on the run-game, but are still looking better offensively with sophomore Luke Del Rio behind center. A knee injury on Saturday, however, has coach Jim Mcelwain gloomy about Del Rio's chances this week, with Austin Appleby next up on the depth chart. Del Rio had been the best thing they've seen back there since Will Grier was suspended last season. Their offense lags behind their defense, but there were some positive signs this season with Del Rio under center. Jordan Scarlett, Mark Thompson, and Lamical Perine have all been making big runs, as they use more of a cabaret approach this season. They were without leading receiver Antonio Callaway on Saturday, which didn't help their aerial game, while DeAndre Goolsby and Josh Hammond picked up the slack. They're not going to blow anyone away, but with some help from the "D," a little improvement, and a big play here and there, they should be okay. Can they make it work without Del Rio?

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It's a tough game. Tennessee is looking for a big win and they get this matchup at home. It's a tough spot for a guy like Appleby to be jettisoned into the starting role and it will be interesting to see how he reacts. The Purdue transfer was a two-year starter and didn't exactly excite. And naturally, it depends on which teams show up. Florida has opened the season nicely, but after the way they ended last season, it's only fair to speculate what happens when they play a really tough opponent, with their starting QB out no less. And the version of Tennessee that showed up in weeks one and three probably wouldn't win this game. But with the Florida offense in turmoil, this could be a spot for Tennessee to take advantage and thrive in the big game at home. I see the Volunteers taking advantage of the situation en route to a win and cover.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Tennessee Volunteers minus 7 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Florida vs. Tennessee game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

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