Florida State Seminoles (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. Clemson Tigers (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS)
College Football Week 8
Date/Time: Saturday, October 19, 2013 at 8PM EST
Where: Clemson Memorial Stadium, Clemson, South Carolina
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: FSU -3/CLEM +3
Over/Under Total: 63.5
Bet your Seminoles/Tigers pick at an online sportsbook where you can make Fla. St. a +17 underdog by inserting them into a 20 point super teaser: 5Dimes.
In a huge ACC matchup featuring top five teams, the Florida State Seminoles take on the Clemson Tigers on Saturday. This is the game of the week and the biggest non-SEC matchup of the year. Both teams are unbeaten and looking for a cornerstone victory. The stakes are high and this should be a heck of a game.
We all knew Clemson was going to be big this season, with Tajh Boyd and an explosive offense, along with a talented defense and a pronounced home-field advantage playing at “Death Valley.” But Florida State has been a real surprise, with the superior play of freshman quarterback Jameis Winston. They had a big 2012, but with so much player turnover, it was iffy whether they could maintain that level and they have done just that and then some. In two months, Winston has gone from a guy out of high school to a Heisman candidate. The freshman is completing nearly 75% of his passes, with 17 touchdowns and 2 picks. Though they look great this season, facing Clemson on the road is an entirely different measuring stick.
Nevertheless, the Seminoles look to be for real. Other than giving up 34 to Boston College 2 games ago, the defense has allowed only 23 points in their other 4 games. The “D” has been exceptionally tough against the pass, ranking 2nd in the entire nation in that category. But the big story is how Winston has meshed with this offense to average 53.6 points per game. RB Devonta Freeman has 385 yards. RB Karlos Williams already has 6 touchdowns. Kenny Shaw leads the team with 466 yards, and Rashad Green and Nick O’Leary each have 5 touchdown receptions. But again, it’s worth mentioning that Clemson represents a whole different level of menace than what they’ve been facing.
Unlike Florida State. Clemson has already been tested this season, beginning with their season opener--a draining win over highly-ranked Georgia. This past Saturday, they held Boston College to 14 points, after the Eagles has scored 34 the week before against Florida State. That’s been old news this season for a Clemson “D” that has been getting the job done. After giving up 35 to Georgia in week one, they have not allowed more than 14 in any game since, while averaging over 40.
Boyd has really come along in the past 3 weeks, throwing for 1100 yards and 9 touchdowns in the last 3 games. Boyd also has 5 rushing touchdowns. And he has one of the best wide receivers in the nation with Sammy Watkins. Adam Humphries and Martavis Bryant are also dependable targets.
It’s worth mentioning that Clemson had a lot of trouble last season against Florida State, losing 49-37, but that was on the road. A lot has changed since then on both teams, but Winston will try to duplicate the excellent game EJ Manuel had for the Seminoles against Clemson last season. And that’s an important part of this game. We know Clemson. We can kind of wrap our heads around what they’re capable of. The question is whether Florida State and their freshman quarterback can graduate from a team with great promise to a squad that can actually notch the big results.
The oddsmakers seem to like Florida State. The point-spread of 3 says they think they’re as good as Clemson, with the normal 3-point allowance given to home teams. And with home being the balmy Death Valley and Clemson ranked so highly, it’s almost as if the oddsmakers are favoring Florida State as the better teams in a lot of respects. There could easily be some big plays for Florida State against this Clemson defense. There are some matchups that stack up well for the Seminoles--make no mistake about it. One of these defenses will likely step up and become the deciding factor in this game. Will it be Clemson’s opportunistic unit? They have been playing a lot better since the Georgia game, but stemming the Winston tide won’t be easy.
This is the biggest ACC battle in years. How much of a difference will it make that Clemson played last week, while Florida St. had two weeks to prepare? Will the raucous environment get to Winston and give an even bigger edge to Clemson? Will Florida State’s defensive performance so far this year carry over when playing a really good offense? This is game doesn't offer tremendous betting value by any means, but maybe Florida State giving the points isn’t such a bad move. Their defense looks to be the real deal or at least good enough to keep a lid on an all-out Clemson detonation. And unless Winston and the Seminoles offense completely hits a wall against a good team in a tough environment, they should put up a bunch of points. Let’s take a shot with Florida State.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm making a lunch money bet on the FSU Seminoles minus the 3 points.
