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Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators Point Spread - Pick

Florida State Seminoles (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. Florida Gators (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS)
College Football Week 13
Date/Time: Saturday, November 28, 2015 at 7:30PM EST
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Florida
TV: ESPN

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: FSU -2/FLA +2
Over/Under Total: Off

The Florida State Seminoles come into Gainesville to face their longtime in-state rivals the Florida Gators on Saturday. There is a lot at stake for both teams in this game, as each team looks to add a high-quality win in their final regular season game. Florida nearly blew it on Saturday, needing overtime to narrowly escape Florida International, 20-14, in a game where they were 28.5-point favorites. The win was their 10th on the season and even with their close call on Saturday and being 8th in the CFP rankings, you never can tell what will happen. But first thing's first and Florida State is a good 9-2 team that still knows how to win. On Saturday, the 'Noles beat Chattanooga at home, 52-13. It was the 4th straight time they covered the spread.

It's one thing to look past an opponent, but Florida almost got caught sleeping by Florida International and is fortunate to have not lost the game. In OT, they scored a touchdown and missed the extra point and are fortunate that Florida International couldn't answer or it would have thrown this matchup in a whole different light. But at the end of the day, they have lost but one game this season—a forgivable 35-28 loss to LSU on the road, the week after they lost their starting quarterback Will Grier to suspension. So it's really hard to say anything bad about the Gators in coach Jim McElwain's first season at the helm.

There have been some nice moments in Florida's somewhat-unsung 10-1 season. There was a 38-10 win over Ole Miss and a 27-3 win at Georgia, but there is a reason they aren't getting as much respect as some other one-loss squads, like Alabama, for example. This is a chance to add a real quality win to their resumes. Coming in for Grier, quarterback Treon Harris has been sufficient, working with his playmakers, while relying on a stout and resilient defense. They have a nice back in Kelvin Taylor, who has run for 12 touchdowns. They have five viable ball-catchers, any of whom can step up in a given week, led by DeMarcus Robinson and Antonio Callaway.

The real crown jewel of this Florida team is their defense, ranked in the top ten in the country against both the run and the pass. They are allowing an average of just over 14 points per game and have been stout throughout the season. In five SEC games, they have given up 10 or fewer points. This is a group that can get turnovers, get big stops, rush the passer, and come through with timely clutch plays. But again, the schedule hasn't been all that tough this season for the Gators, with their only win over a ranked team coming on October 3 against the then third-ranked Rebels.

Florida St. lost to Georgia Tech in a strange defeat, before losing to top-ranked Clemson, 23-13, in their only two losses of the season. Still, in their last 41 games, they are 38-3, which makes them a hard team to pick against. They have it in them to manufacture wins. This is a team that simply wins, as evidenced by their 9-2 mark in what is really a transitional season. By the same token, they search for their first win over a ranked opponent this week.

Since taking over as a starter a few weeks ago for Everett Golson, Sean Maguire has been playing pretty well and has this offense moving well. He took over in the NC State two games ago and an offense that was at times stuck in the mud began moving freely. And though the offense did well last Saturday, that did happen against the Chattanooga Mocs. Things will get a lot tougher this weekend against the Gators' defense.

Look for Maguire to continue relying on Dalvin Cook, who continued his great season with over 100 yards and two TD runs on Saturday. He has 16 rushing touchdowns on the season. And freshman back Jacques Patrick continues to make an impression, as he also had a pair of TD scampers last Saturday. And Maguire works well with a trio of good ball-catchers in Travis Rudolph, Jesus Wilson, and Kermit Whitield.

Defensively, the Seminoles have been pretty good. It's a big benefit for the offense when the defense doesn't give up a ton of points and in averaging 17 points a game, they are in the top ten in that category. And they've been consistent—having not allowed more than 24 points from any team all season. They are a clutch unit that can get big plays in timely fashion, while registering key stops throughout the game. After all there aren't a lot of teams that can go an entire season and not give up more than 24 points. Against a sometimes-flat Florida offense, this "D" should be able to play effectively.

This is a well-matched football game. Florida is probably a little more of a sound team, the more solid and steady overall force. But FSU might have a little more of an explosive game-breaking potential, especially with Cook coming out of the backfield. Look for a tough game that could down to the end. I'm going with the Gators.

Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Florida Gators plus 2 points.

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