Florida State Seminoles (3-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Miami Hurricanes (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date/Time: Saturday, October 8, 2016 at 8PM EST
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: FSU +3/MIA -3
Over/Under Total: 65.5
The Florida State Seminoles come to Hard Rock Stadium to face in-state rivals the Miami Hurricanes on Saturday in ACC action. It's a big conference game where the winner can start entertaining thoughts of bigger things, particularly the 4-0 'Canes. The Hurricanes look good under first-year coach Mark Richt. On Saturday, they beat Georgia Tech, 35-21. Florida State nearly had a big win at home against North Carolina, before the Tar Heels drove in the final seconds to set up a 54-yard game-winning field goal. The loss ended a 22-game home win streak for the 'Noles and sent them to 3-2 on the season.
The season has gone according to plan in 2016 thus far for the Hurricanes, though they haven't had it nearly as tough as Florida St. as far as the schedule goes. Georgia Tech was their first real test this past Saturday, following wins over Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, and Appalachian State. Against that trio of opponents, Miami won by a combined score of 153-23. It was a good way for the team to warm up to the season, as they looked energetic and powerful against a good GT bunch. The Hurricanes are explosive and showed it on Saturday with three touchdowns in just 1:38 in the second quarter, with a Mark Walton TD run followed by two quick fumble returns for touchdowns. Scoring those two defensive scores were a pair of freshman—Shaquille Quarterman and Joe Jackson.
The Miami defense is ranked first in scoring defense, sacks, and tackles for loss. It's a defense that makes a bunch of plays and has a lot of youth that is already starting to deliver. Michael Pinckney also picked off a pass. It's a group that is pretty stout, while also aiding in the scoring to really help the offense. The front controlled the line of scrimmage on Saturday against the Yellow Jackets. It's just a very disruptive group that plays with an edge and a lot of energy. Guys are at the right place at the right time with a lot of effort. Guys are all over the field and just from a naked-eye point of view, they look like a handful.
In Mark Richt's first ACC conference game, the offense looked very SEC-like at times. Behind a huge offensive line that has controlled the line of scrimmage in all 4 games this season, they bring a heavy dose of power running. Led by Joseph Yearby and Mark Walton, the run-game is a difference maker on this offense. They just look beefier than your typical ACC team. They're averaging 7.7 yards per rush so far this season. With this line, there are a lot of options for Richt and QB Brad Kaaya. On Saturday, Kaaya was efficient with 241 yards on just 13-for-19 passing. Speedy receiver Stacy Coley caught a TD pass, while Christopher Herndon, IV. made some big catches, as did Ahmmon Richards.
This is a pivotal game for the Miami program. They're trying to rejoin the national scene after a prolonged absence for a program that has been historically great. On one hand, they've looked good this season and have the appearance of a much-improved team on its way to a turnaround-type of season. At the same time, they've been eased into action this season with three soft opponents and a pretty good foe in GT. And they did rely on two defensive scores to get the win on Saturday. This is a class-check kind of game for the 'Canes, a litmus-test that will show where they really stand.
Against a good North Carolina team on Saturday, Florida State had their hands full and really went through the entire spectrum of emotions in as draining a loss as you can get, They fell behind to the powerful Tar Heels, 21-0. They came back some, but it was still 28-14 going into the final quarter. A pair of Dalvin Cook runs tied it at 28. With 2:31 left, the Tar Heels took the lead, but missed the extra point, That set up the 'Noles beautifully and a late FSU drive capped off by a Deondre Francois TD run put them up by one with 23 seconds left. Three plays later and aided by a Florida St. pass interference call, The Yellow Jackets' kicker redeemed himself with the long FG as time ran out. Ouch.
The 'Noles now have to drag themselves up and soldier into Hard Rock to take on a fresh Miami bunch that hasn't been battered by the season like the Seminoles have. In the season-opener, The Seminoles overcame a huge deficit to explode and take down Ole Miss. A few weeks later, they fell to the Lamar Jackson TD machine, losing to Louisville, 62-20. A road win over South Florida was followed by the heartbreak loss to North Carolina.
Still, there is a lot to this FSU team though it might not be one of their better teams recently and they're already looking at two losses. Still, a win here would generate a lot of optimism moving forward. And their offense is still beyond anything the Hurricanes have dealt with recently. Deondre Francois had 372 yards passing on Saturday and ran in a TD score. Dalvin Cook ran in three scores on 140 yards rushing and was over 100 through the air and now looks like the beast of old with 407 rushing yards in the last two games after a slow start. Jesus Wilson had 120 yards receiving. It's still a very powerful offense and Miami's defense will be pushed to a limit where we're just not sure how they will maintain.
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Most alarming about this FSU team is their tendency to give up gobs of points in short windows of time. Before slowing down the powerful Ole Miss offense, they were run over by the Rebels in the first half. From the middle of the second quarter to the middle of the third, they were gutted by the Louisville offense. And the same thing happened with North Carolina, as FSU has shown they can go from being pretty stout to just completely falling apart. It's an entirely undependable group and you have to assume Miami can get business done against this "D."
We need to exercise caution in how we perceive these teams. Miami is in better form, but how would they have looked if facing the same level of opponent that FSU has been facing this season? After setting such high standards during the Jimbo Fisher era, being 3-2 might play tricks with some bettor's minds, It doesn't mean they're still not able to compete with the best teams in the conference. We'll take the points.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Florida State Seminoles plus 3 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Florida State vs. Miami game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
