Florida State Seminoles (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Monday, September 2 at 8PM EST
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: FSU -10/Pitt +10
Over/Under Total: 47
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The Florida State Seminoles travel to Pittsburgh to take on ACC newcomer Pittsburgh in the 2013 season opener in a Monday evening affair at Heinz Field. Florida State is coming off an Orange Bowl win and enters 2013 with a head of steam as a once-great program reclaiming its spot among the nation’s best. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is coming off a 6-7 season under 1st year head coach Paul Chryst and looks to hit the ground running in their inaugural ACC campaign.
Pittsburgh has both positive and negative signs entering 2013, as do all teams. It’s just that Pittsburgh shows some major contradictory signs. They lost star back Ray Graham and any hopes of making a smooth transition with Rushel Shell were dashed when he transferred to West Virginia. That’s bad news for the run-happy coach Chryst. We’ll see if they can establish a meaningful run game now depending on guys like Isaac Bennett (questionable with a knee injury) and Malcolm Crockett.
A potential bright spot lies with QB Tom Savage--a 6’5” pro-style quarterback finally ready to be turned loose. This is his third school and he is starting for the first time since 2010. All signs are that he is ready to go and he has a good receiver in Devin Smith. Pitt’s defense has 8 starters returning and maybe new defensive coordinator Matt House can get this squad to realize its full potential. There is some talent on that side of the ball, including fearsome DT Aaron Donald.
The Panthers are going to need all they can get against the Seminoles. Leading all college football teams with 11 players taken in this year’s NFL draft, one might worry about being crippled with personnel losses. but Florida State is still in surprisingly good shape. Sure, they lost a stud in QB EJ Manuel, in addition to massive talent on defense like Bjoern Werner, Xavier Rhodes, and Cornelius Carradine. Yet, optimism is high that recruits and non-starters from last season can fill in the gaps. There is little reason to doubt the defending ACC champions and head coach Jimbo Fisher, who has won 4 straight bowl games.
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A lot of Florida State’s prospects lie in the fortunes of young QB Jameis Winston who will be seeing his first college football snaps in this game. He is a gigantic talent with charisma and a cannon-arm, as illustrated by his being able to throw a 90 mph fastball. Coach Fisher has been adept at developing quarterbacks, as shown by his development of Manuel and before that--Jamarcus Russell and Christian Ponder. Winston has a nice 1-2 combo at running back at his disposal, with James Wilder (635 yards) and Devonta Freeman (660 yards) both returning after each averaged almost 6 yards per rush in 2012. The passing game is where the questions loom and the offseason wasn’t terribly friendly in this area.
It’s hard to not like this Seminoles offensive line, which might end up being one of the best in the nation, anchored by terrific center Bryan Stork and 3 other returning stalwarts. That makes it so Winston has a lot to work with. A good line and running backs corps with experience and depth is a nice way for Winston to come into this situation. If some receivers can grow with Winston and develop chemistry, the offense might not deteriorate from last season as much as is being forecasted. The “D” has some retooling to do in the front 7, but they still have guys like DE Mario Edwards, Jr., LB Christian Jones, and defensive backs Nick Waisome and Ronald Darby. New defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, who did a great job as Alabama’s d-backs coach. has some tools to work with and, who knows, maybe he has the magic touch.
Pittsburgh might be a surprise, but they have their work cut out. Perhaps this “D” can be a difference-maker, as the Panthers face a brutal schedule which begins here against the formidable Seminoles. You hate to see their running game in a state of such flux, with a quarterback coming out of moth balls as they are making the switch to the tough ACC. And their secondary took a massive hit losing Jason Hendricks for the rest of the season late this summer. Then again, all the negative signs and bad news out of this program might serve to make it so people underrate Pittsburgh.
The 10-point spread presents an interesting conundrum. Do you take the better team in Florida State that seems in better shape personnel-wise, despite the many losses in pivotal positions? Or do you take Pittsburgh at home getting double-digit points and likely revved-up making their conference debut and now in the 2nd year of a new system? Even with the offseason issues? It’s a tough one--make no mistake.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take Pittsburgh and 10 points.
