Fresno State Bulldogs (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Saturday, September 3, 2016 at 8PM EST
Where: Memorial Stadium, Lincoln Nebraska
TV: Big Ten Network
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: FRES +29/NEB -29
Over/Under Total: 62
The Fresno State Bulldogs come into Memorial Stadium in Lincoln to take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers on interesting week one action. Obviously, both teams have different expectations and starting points, but last season didn't live up to either team's standards. Nebraska was 6-7. They ended the season with a nice bowl win over UCLA and 6 of their 7 losses were by one score, but they look for a little surge this season under second-year coach Mike Riley. Fresno State is coming off a rough 3-win season that saw their offense rendered almost moot by season's end. Head coach Tim DeRuyter is looking for a major upswing.
DeRuyter was strong in his first two seasons with the Bulldogs, before going 9-17 in the last two seasons. Losing Derek Carr had a lot to do with that, but he's definitely lost his mojo. They scored 16 or fewer points in 5 of their last 8 games in 2015. The defense allowed 38.1 points per game. If anything, expect DeRuyter to be leaving it all on the table this season in an urgent campaign of football where no stones will be left unturned for Fresno St. Nebraska coach Mike Riley is in an even more pressure-cooked situation with sub-.500 seasons not making anyone a hero in Lincoln. A little patience is warranted and things weren't so awful perhaps, even if the pro style didn't really take and the ground-game was a shadow of its former self.
The Cornhuskers offense wasn't so terrible with the vast systematic change instituted by Mike Riley. At the end of the day, QB Tommy Armstrong needs to be a little better. He needs to cut down on turnovers and become the experienced playmaker with legs that he can be. Running backs Terrell Newby and Devine Ozigbo need to become more than just afterthoughts in this offense. That would give more bite to the aerial attack, which features Jordan Westerkamp (918 yards), Brandon Reilly (754 yards), and Alonzo Moore (619 yards). Look for Stanley Morgan, Jr. and TE Cethan Carter to also try to make an impact. Guard Dylan Utter and T Nick Gates form a nice foundation, but youngsters in the wings will need to make an impact. The guess is that they will.
Nebraska had a good run-defense in 2015, as they were able to give opposing offenses a hard time. They weren't too strong against the pass and struggled mightily in the areas of notching clutch plays or in registering turnovers—with only 15 on the season. The line has a thin cast of newcomers that will need to surprise for this bunch to even be average. They lost huge talent and need to fill a few voids. The middle is occupied with a lot of experience with Dedrick Young, Josh Banderas, Chris Weber, Marcus Newby, and Michael Rose-Ivey, but a playmaker or two needs to materialize. And having a line in front with a lot of questions to answer doesn't help much. Safety Nate Gerry gives the "D" a much-needed playmaking capability and along with S Aaron Williams, CB Joshua Kalu, and CB Chris Jones, the secondary is the definite strength of this defense.
Fresno State is going to need a few things to fall their way to avoid another problematic season. They have a new offensive coordinator in Eric Kiesau, who is running plays in rapid-fire fashion at practice. Leading the QB battle is Chason Vigil. He was injured early last season and looks to earn the job and seems to have a decent lead in the battle. Running back will need to sprout some kind of surprise, with Dejonte Neal, Dontel James, and some young kids coming out of the woodwork. There are nice aerial targets like Jamire Jordan, KeeSean Johnson and Aaron Peck. The O-line doesn't offer a ton of promise with two returning starters who weren't that impactful last season, in addition to more youth. They will need two new tackles. Fresno State enters the campaign with an iffy QB, no discernible source of a ground-game, and a line that looks to be in rebuilding mode—not a terribly rosy scenario.
New Fresno defensive coordinator Lorenzo Ward puts in a 3-4 set and will rely on a good nose tackle in Nathan Madsen and some juco presence to materialize on the edges. The middle has some substance with Jeff Camilli, James Bailey, and Neloa Otukolo, but they will be pushed the limitations of their capabilities with a line that might not do its job. The corners aren't bad, especially Tyquwan Glass—a terrific corner. Jamal Ellis and Dyquawn Brown are also useful corners, but the safety slots look iffy, with a duo needing to materialize in the summer.
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The high-urgency of DeRuyter's situation should manifest well for Fresno. They have two new coordinators with a fresh outlook and will at least throw something worthwhile at the opponent. The offense will be rattling off plays and that could have an early-season defense huffing and puffing. It's just that Fresno really stunk last season and it's not like there were many developments that would appear to be able to change that. But they don't need everything to go right, either. A few breaks would have them at least looking better than they did last season. Again, this is a team that could barely create offensive momentum in the last 2/3 of the season and who's to say we won't see that again, especially here is a really tough road assignment?
Not that Nebraska doesn't have issues that need to be addressed, but there is at least optimism in the new faces, in addition to the development of the existing pieces. There is just superior talent on this team. Fresno hangs in there with teams like UNLV and Hawaii—bottom-rung Mountain West teams. Not Big Ten teams, even if they're just middle-of-the-road ones. With how Nebraska got beaten at home in their season-opener for the first time in three decades last season, one might anticipate some more urgency in this game than what is normally the case. Nebraska is an interesting team that could do some surprising things this season, while Fresno legitimately appears to be down in the dumps, barring some completely unforeseen development. That 29-point spread is daunting, but I think Fresno is going to need some time to round into enough shape to withstand teams like Nebraska. I'm taking the Cornhuskers.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus 29 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on games at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
