Georgia Bulldogs (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday, September 24, 2016 at 12PM EST
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: UGA +7.5/MISS -7.5
Over/Under Total: 60.5
The Georgia Bulldogs come to Oxford to face the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday in key week 4 SEC action. In just three games, Mississippi has been put through the ringer. Ahead by a mile against Florida State in week one, they squandered a big lead and lost the game by double-digits in a memorable collapse. After a perfunctory win over Wofford, they had a chance to atone for the loss against Alabama. They led 24-3 late in the second quarter before it all went bad in a 48-43 loss. That's two bad defeats in three weeks and we'll see if they can rebound for an incoming Georgia bunch that went to 3-0 with a 28-27 win over Missouri on Saturday. They needed a late 4th-quarter touchdown from freshman QB Jacob Eason in his first start to pull victory from the jaws of defeat.
It's hard to not feel for Ole Miss at this point. They had two games in hand that would have made them the top-ranked team in the land. Instead of that, they're at 1-2 trying to pick up he pieces. There is still a lot of work to do if they can martial their resources and soldier on through the remainder of the SEC schedule. But it won't be easy, with those two losses likely weighing heavily on this team. They've looked like the best team in the nation, if only the games ended in the first half. To literally melt away in both games in the second half is just a tough pill for the team and all their supporters to stomach. On Saturday, they scored two late touchdowns to cover the spread and give 'Bama a little sweat. But to go from up 24-3 to down 48-30 in less than a half is really demoralizing.
Offensively, Ole Miss is explosive, yet they've shown a bad pattern of going into the tank just as it looks they are going to explode on their opponents. Against both FSU and the Tide, the offense was in command. Chad Kelly was throwing darts all over the field and racking up video game stats with his formidable receiver crew led by Evan Engram, Damore'a Stringfellow, and others. But then they've gone into these inexplicable funks. From one half to the next, it's been like a tale of two teams with this offense through three weeks. At the same time, we can't let the way they've lost these games blind us from the fact that this is an explosive offense that put up 527 yards against Alabama in total offense. It took dynamic offenses in both games to mount comebacks with the leads this offense put up. A little more consistency from the first to the fourth quarter would go a long way.
Naturally, it won't matter how explosive the Ole Miss offense is if the defense is never more than moments away from going into slapstick-mode. When you get out to big leads against quality teams, there is always going to be that late-rush, where the other team comes back while the defensive intensity wanes. But this defense has a knack of plundering into the abyss at the first onset of adversity. The resilience they showed in their two losses was alarmingly-low. The D-line is still strong even without Robert Nkemdiche. But they can't stop the run and gave up 338 on the ground to Alabama, while against FSU, they were torched through the air by Deondre Francois. And those were in games where they looked good for long stretches. It's like something happens to this "D" when they see their offense hit the scoreboard with regularity where they mentally check out. If they want to salvage this season, they better find answers and fast.
Georgia is off to a good start under new head coach Kirby Smart. On Saturday, they needed some theatrics to beat a tough home Missouri team by single point. For Jacob Eason, the freshman quarterback, scoring a late comeback win could be a confidence builder. He had some knocks, but ended up with 308 yards and three touchdowns with an interception. Eason was needed with Nick Chubb having a rare off-game with just 63 yards on 19 carries. Nothing against previous starter Greyson Lambert, but the young Eason might give them a little more upside on this side of the ball.
Georgia got a nice contribution from Isaiah McKenzie, who ran for a score, while catching 10 passes for 122 yards and 2 scores, including the critical one at the end of the game. While Chubb was ineffective in week three, one shouldn't count on much more of that, with Chubb among the more-consistent producers when healthy. Other key role members of the offense are beginning to establish themselves. They've beaten a good North Carolina team already this season and while their offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders, it should start looking better with Eason behind center.
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Kirby Smart is in his first year and he got here based on his defensive mastery shown at Alabama. They've done pretty well, without really being a shut-down unit. They held a powerful North Carolina offense to 24 points in week one. And against Missouri, they gave up 27 in just over a half. But when it was time to let the offense make a comeback, they were able to tighten up considerably, holding a home Mizzou bunch scoreless for nearly the entire second-half. The defense was able to get after the ball, forcing four second-half turnovers, as the tables turned on a dime, much to the good fortune of Georgia, who needed every break they could get with the one-point win.
With a pair of utter collapses in two of their first three games, it's hard to mentally get behind Ole Miss. But those collapses could serve to have a dizzying affect on bettors, who could run with the story too hard and end up overlooking what is still an explosive Rebels team. With Ole Miss, it's all doom-and-gloom right now, while Georgia is riding high after a comeback win with a new promising QB now in the fold. It could create a dichotomy that has little impact on the field of play, where Georgia's defense will be severely tested. But getting better than a TD against this defense, it's hard to go against the Bulldogs.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Georgia Bulldogs plus 7.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Bulldogs vs. Rebels game from the comfort of your own home at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
