Georgia State Panthers (0-4 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide(4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date/Time: Saturday, October 5 at 12:20PM EST
Where: Bryant Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
TV: ESPN 3
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: GSU +55.5/ALA -55.5
Over/Under Total: 59.5
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On Saturday, the Alabama Crimson Tide host the Georgia State Panthers in one of the grossest mismatches of the season. You have the best team in college football at home against one of the worst teams in the FBS. It’s not exactly clear why SEC powerhouses would be matched against Sun Belt Conference bottom-feeders, but such is the case. With a 55.5 point spread, it provides an interesting test to bettors.
Georgia State is being transitioned into FBS play. The team has only existed since 2010. Three of their first four opponents this year were FCS teams and they lost each one. Two games ago, they lost to West Virginia 41-7. Quarterback Ronnie Bell has been pretty bad and RB Travis Evans is hardly enthralling. WR Albert Wilson is one of the best in the Sun Belt. But let’s face it, this is a laugher of massive proportions. With all due respect for Georgia State who is trying to build something, this is a hopeless cause.
These point-spreads are hard to cope with. While the outcome of the game is in no doubt whatsoever, it’s harder betting on these games than when the outcome is up in the air. We know what will happen, but we are forced to gauge exactly how bad the beating will be. Will it just be a normal and polite kind of beating, or will it be a wall-to-wall massacre? At 55.5, it’s tough to decide which way to go.
At the same time, there are some hints from the recent past and motivation factors at play that could offer some insight. These teams actually played in 2010, with Alabama winning 63-7, with a young AJ McCarron getting some snaps and getting a huge performance from WR Julio Jones. This Alabama team is even better and the 2010 team won by 56 points.
With a 55.5-point line, it’s important to determine the scoring potential of the underdog. If they don’t score, the spread will be easy to hit. Georgia State scored 7 points against West Virginia and only 14 against Chattanooga. That would make you lean towards the possibility that they will have massive trouble scoring--even against a Tide “D” that isn’t air-tight. Then again, a couple weird plays, like a returned fumble or special teams snafu could make it hard for ‘Bama to cover the enormous spread.
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A powerful team like Alabama has been in this position before. Just a few weeks ago they missed covering a 40-point spread by over 2 touchdowns in a 31-6 win over Colorado State. Going back to last season, they missed covering a 55-point spread against Western Carolina, a 47-point spread against Florida Atlantic, and a 38-pointer against Western Kentucky. So, they haven’t been a good betting option in these spots in recent history. At the same time, four results hardly constitutes a pattern.
You have to question Alabama’s motivation--not in an overall sense, but just for this game. They are not a team that phones it in with games like this, but they will take their foot off the gas from time to time. Mentally, they just beat Ole Miss in what supposed to be a tough conference game. They have the meat of the SEC schedule looming just around the corner. And here’s poor Georgia State, which constitutes almost an exhibition-type of game.
The problem for Georgia State backers is that Alabama doesn’t need to be pumped-up to run circles around them. And if the starters get pulled early, that might not make the difference you would think it would. The lowest reserves on Alabama are still in a different category of football player than everyone on the Georgia State roster. It’s sad, but that’s the reality of it. And Alabama’s reserves have something to prove and might not be going that easy.
In these situations, Nick Saban is a little more of a humanitarian than other coaches in the same position. He doesn’t want to look like a bad guy and try to demoralize lower-end programs when winning the game is not in doubt. During his tenure, he’s had more than his fair share of opportunities to stomp teams into the dirt and he never does. This matchup, however, is so lopsided that he might not be able to help it. You gotta run plays. So the Tide could almost cover this spread accidentally. But I’d look for Saban and his guys to ease off the gas pedal and maybe Georgia State can manage a score or two.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Georgia State Panthers plus 55.5 points.
