Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. California Golden Bears (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Friday, August 26, 2016 at 10PM EST
Where: ANZ Stadium, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: HAW +21.5/CAL -21.5
Over/Under Total: 63
The 2016-17 college football season kicks off on August 26 in the faraway location of Sydney, Australia, as the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors take on the California Golden Bears. Opponent aside, it's a tough way for these kids to start a season, with a trip to the Land Down Under being the mother of all road trips. Hawaii is trying to parlay a new coaching staff and attitude into coming out of laughingstock status. Cal, meanwhile, is looking to continue the upward trajectory they showed last season. They will have to do so without their star QB Jared Goff, the first pick of the NFL draft. Both teams enter 2016 with a lot on their respective agendas.
Hawaii was pretty bad in 2015. They showed promise with a season-opening win over Pac-12 team Colorado, before going 2-10 for the balance of the season. Even their normal home-field advantage was not terribly evident, as they were 3-10 against the spread last season. Offensive marvel Nick Rolovich takes over and should instill a more-positive attitude on the team. Their opponent Cal has an opposite 2015, finally becoming a player in the Pac-12 with 4 conference wins and a season-ending 55-36 bowl win over Air Force. They started 5-0 and ended up at 8-5, but they were very respectful and the number-two offense in the high-flying Pac-12.
Cal will be going with Davis Webb at quarterback and you could do a lot worse than the Texas Tech transfer to fill the shoes of a quarterback as good as Jared Goff. The former Red Raiders star was good enough at one point to beat out current Sooners star Baker Mayfield for the Texas Tech starting gig. Webb also inherits some useful pieces to make his transition to the Pac-12 a bit easier.
The Cal offense was more pass-oriented last season, but they return a trio of backs who were all over 500 yards in Vic Enwere, Tre Watson, and Khalfani Muhammad. This group of backs will be key, as the Golden Bears aerial attack tries to find its form. Four starters on the offensive line return and should be a capable and experienced group upon which Webb can lean. The receiver crew is the real sticking point, as they are a young group that is relatively unproven. Guys like Melquise Stovall and Demetris Robertson will need to eventually come around to give Webb some viable targets. But make no mistake, the young receivers on Cal are talented and big and their ability to come around will determine if Cal's offense can maintain some of their prior venom.
Under head coach Sonny Dykes, the Golden Bears' defense has made gains each season. In 2013, they gave up an average of 46 points a game. Those totals decreased in the past two seasons, with 39.8 in 2014 and a respectable 30.7 last season. Will the pattern continue, despite only five returning starts on "D?" Among the departures was the bulk of their leadership. The line could be decent if things come around, anchored by end DeVante Wilson and James Looney stuffing the run inside. Linebacker is a major question with some key transfers and graduations. The secondary has a nice foundational piece in corner Darius Allensworty and strong safety Damariay Drew, if he's healthy, but a few other contributors will need to materialize. On one hand, coach Dykes might come up with something, but those thinking the "D" will be dicey and that Cal will be in a lot of shootouts certainly have ammo to believe that.
Now what can Hawaii do about it? You never know for sure, but it seems safe to say that the hire of Nick Rolovich as head coach will resonate positively at some point. The question is when? Hawaii used to be a dependable offensive machine, only see to see that side of the ball stagnate in recent years. Look for Rolovich to at least try to recapture some of that offensive spirit of years past. And his coordinator Zak Hill was able to do some of that during his tenure at Eastern Washington. Look for Rolovich to pick up the tempo and spread things out more. He has ten returning starters on offense, so we'll see if he can work with what he was dealt or if more time will be needed for Rolovich to bring in his own guys.
With a system in flux, not everything is concrete with Hawaii as of press time. But it looks like last year's backup Ikaike Woosley is the favorite to start at quarterback. And he has tools. Running back Paul Harris ran for 1132 yards last season. Melvin Davis is also a weapon. They will be running behind a line that returns everybody and that should actually be pretty good with all that hard-earned experience from last season. Woolsey will be looking to make connections with a deep and competent cabaret of ball-catchers. Guys like Marcus Kemp, Devan Stubblefield, Dylan Collie, Isaiah Bernard and TE Metuisela 'Unga provide a nice unit, though one that lacks a real playmaking threat. Coach Rolovich played at Hawaii and one should look for this offense to let if fly and swing it from the hip more this season.
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Hawaii's defense looks to create more heat and become more aggressive. To that end, new coordinator Kevin Lempa was brought in to replicate some of his success at BC. Last season, there were some things the Rainbow Warriors' "D" did OK, like apply a decent pass rush. But they struggled across most other areas, namely when it came to coming up with a clutch play, making a key stop, and in turnover ratio, where they were decimated—leading to them giving up nearly 36 points a game. The front seven looks very shaky after the line was hit with key suspensions and with only 1 of 4 starting linebackers returning. And the secondary only secured 3 picks all of last season. They could be better this season with corners Jalen Rogers and Nick Nelson and safeties Dany Mulanga and Daniel Lewis, but if the front seven can't do their jobs, this group might be run ragged. Will this defense have enough teeth to allow improvements on the offensive side of ball to resonate properly?
This isn't easy. And when the game is in Australia, you never know what you're going to see on the field. Combine that with the fact that you have two teams in a state of heavy transition and it makes it difficult to get a read on the game. Hawaii might be headed in the right direction, but this looks to be a tough 2016 entrance exam. Cal will be working in a new QB, but their offense could maintain surprisingly well. With Hawaii's front seven needing to find a lot of answers, look for Cal to run the ball well, with Webb working his receivers into the mix. The Hawaii offense will eventually take hold, but this is still just an overall tough spot for the Rainbow Warriors. Still, against a Cal defense that looks to take at least a small step backwards, we could see hints of the Rolovich revolution begin to manifest. I think Hawaii will show enough pluck to cover the big number.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at +21.5. Did you know... that you could be wagering on games at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
