Houston Cougars (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Thursday, September 15 at 7:30PM EST
Where: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: HOU -7.5/CIN +7.5
Over/Under Total: Off
The Houston Cougars come to Nippert Stadium to face the Cincinnati Bearcats on Thursday in week three action in the AAC. Cincinnati is now 2-0 after a 38-20 road win over Purdue on Saturday in week two. They now take on the role of darkhorse, as they look to spoil things for the high-profile Cougars. Following a defining win over Oklahoma in week one, Houston again looked the part against FCS foe Lamar last Saturday, winning 42-0. This game, however, could be a hidden trap, as Houston can't afford to be asleep at the wheel against the upstart 2-0 Bearcats.
After Houston beat Oklahoma and became a real national contender, some looked at their AAC conference schedule for potential slip-ups and Cincy stands out as a decent candidate. First, they're at home and can be hard to play in this spot, with Houston operating in the south more than the Midwest. And with a quarterback coming into his own like Hayden Moore, Cincinnati will usually be in there with at least a shot. Moore threw for 3 touchdowns against Purdue, while running for two more. After coming in last year and putting up some Tecmo Bowl numbers in relief of Gunner Kiel, he looks even better this season. He's more relaxed in the pocket, as he is making the right decisions and showing another dimension of being really elusive.
Moore has some nice weapons at his disposal. Mike Boone can give you a lot of carries and some good production. Tion Green also gives them another experienced back to carry the load. Senior receiver Nate Cole was dynamic on Saturday, catching a pair of touchdowns on 81 yards receiving. Tight end DJ Dowdy caught a TD pass and Moore was able to spring receiver Kahlil Lewis on a 79-yard run. The thought on the Cincinnati offense coming into the season was that they had a wealth of depth at QB with Moore and Kiel, along with two leading returning rushers and a line that was mostly intact. The issue seemed to be with their young receiving crew and so far, it hasn't looked bad—albeit against UT-Martin and a dicey Purdue bunch. Their coordinator left after Cincy put up a school record for total yardage last year. The new lean to a pro-style actually seems to suit this offense well.
A big part of Cincy's win over Purdue in week two was the 5 picks thrown by Boilermakers quarterback David Blough. Bearcats linebacker Mike Tyson picked off three passes, with one coming in the end zone. Tyrell Gilbert and Alex Thomas had the other two picks. There are 8 starters back on this side of the ball and should improve on the 31.2 points per game they allowed last season.
There were still some signs against Purdue that could be troubling, especially when facing a top team like Houston. If not for the turnovers, Purdue would have been right in that game. There were times where Cincinnati's overall team concentration waned and Purdue threatened to get back into it. The turnovers never allowed the Boilermakers to maintain any foothold, but one could project how against a better team that was holding onto the ball, the inability to put forth a complete 4-quarter effort could come back and bite Cincinnati.
The Cougars really had a laborious game on their hands against Lamar with a 3.5-hour lightning delay. They were also without starting quarterback Greg Ward, Jr., who banged up his shoulder in their week one win over Oklahoma. Head coach Tom Herman confirmed that Ward, Jr. would have started if it were a conference game, so he will be in there against Cincy. Although it came against Lamar, Houston showed some firepower without Ward, Jr. with three rushers gaining over 100 yards for the first time in 42 years, as running backs Kevrin Justice and freshman Mulbah Car hit that number, along with backup QB Kyle Postma. So they looked pretty good without Ward, Jr in there, in addition to missing RB Duke Catalon who is nursing an ankle injury.
The Houston defense was able to curb a powerful Oklahoma offense, holding them to nothing but a late throwaway touchdown when the game was already decided. Though they were vulnerable at times in the first half, they showed a lot of menace in the second half, with that continuing in the shutout of Lamar. In their last 6 quarters of play, they've given up almost nothing of consequence. Lamar only managed 73 yards of total offense, with a 14-yard play being their biggest move on the day.
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Houston didn't just beat Oklahoma and become a contender out of nowhere. This is something that has been building for a while now. Last season, they played four ranked teams and beat them all—three by double-digit margins. Coach Herman has tapped into something almost magical and there is no dissuading this team, as they always deliver and get the most out of themselves.
Cincinnati is undoubtedly on the right track under head coach Tommy Tuberville. Moore is a rising force behind center and looks very smooth to open the season. With their high-powered offensive potential and overall team talent, they are in many ways an ideal upset candidate. It's just that Houston is a real contender and it seems like people are still a bit reluctant to acknowledge that. Look for them to take another step this week with a big showing of force in Cincy.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Houston Cougars minus 7.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Cougars vs. Bearcats game from the comfort of your home by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
