Kansas State Wildcats (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Stanford Cardinal (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Friday, September 2, 2016 at 9PM EST
Where: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, California
TV: Fox Sports 1
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: KSU +15.5/STAN -15.5
Over/Under Total: 50
The Kansas State Wildcats come out west to face the Stanford Cardinal on Friday in week one of the 2016 college football season. This is an awfully-rough first test for a Kansas State team that is coming off its first losing season in coach Bill Snyder's long tenure. Stanford, meanwhile, is coming off a season where they were right on the cusp, though they were still Pac-12 champions and one of the 5-6 best teams in the nation. They did lose a lot of key pieces and will need to find some answers to keep their trajectory on a steady line. Which of these teams can get this season off to a good start?
Both teams are dealing with quarterback battles as of press time. The seemingly endless tenure of Kevin Hogan ended last season, with the Cardinal looking to either Keller Chryst or Ryan Burns to fill the void. That's a battle we'll need to keep an eye on, with Chryst maybe being a slight favorite. Kansas State had Joe Hubener fill in last season when Jesse Ertz went down in the first game. His performance was less-than-conclusive and Ertz may regain starting quarterback duties.
Despite some key losses, the offensive prognosis for Stanford is a bit more positive. Heisman frontrunner Christian McCaffrey is a massive producer at running back, coming off a 2700-yard season of running and passing yards. He will be the rock to lean on for whoever emerges as the starter at QB. Short-yardage specialist Remound Wright and Barry Sanders are gone, in addition to a line needing 3 new starters. But McCaffrey should be more than enough for the ground-game to take off and since when hasn't Stanford been able to replenish up-front? In addition to McCaffrey, look for Stanford' new quarterback to make good use of a nice pass-catching group, led by receiver Michael Rector. Trenton Irwin and Dalton Schultz. Though Francis Owusu made the catch of the year last season, he will need to become a more consistent performer.
The Stanford defense offers a mixed bag. Losing two ends in a 3-4 set could prove to be costly. Solomon Thomas looks to fill one spot with Jordan Watkins looking to get more time this season, but this part of the team could be a liability unless they find a way to hit the ground running. The middle loses Blake Martinez and his massive production, with Kevin Palma, Joey Alfieri, Peter Kalambayi, and Jordan Perez looking to bridge the gap. This group might be spending a lot of time making up for the line's inadequacy. We saw the secondary come around late in the season, with returning pieces like corners Alameen Murphy, Alijah Holder, Quenton Meeks, and Terrence Alexander, along with safeties Dallas Lloyd, and Zach Hoffpauir making for a nice group. But that line…
Unfortunately, whoever ends up behind center for the Wildcats won't have a Christian McCaffrey to lean on while they get things figured out. There's always an unseen X-factor with coach Snyder coming up with answers from the Juco ranks on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately for KSU, the offensive side of the ball features a lot of unrealized potential. At running back, Charles Jones and Justin Silmon have yet to really turn the corner. And the same applies to the receiving corps, with Deante Burton, Dominique Heath, and Winston Dimel looking to kick it up a notch. Maybe incoming factors like receiver Byron Pringle and RB Dalvin Warmack can help what looks to be a so-so bunch.
Adding to the misery is the least-experienced line in the conference, a group that was battered hard by injuries. Their center Dalton Risner returns and the rest of the line will be occupied by youngsters who will be thrown to the fire quickly. After all, Kansas State is looking to upgrade the offense—to get better QB play and spring forth a meaningful running game. It looks like it might be tough with no real playmakers and a hodgepodge line.
The Wildcats' defense was beleaguered for much of last season—the 108th ranked unit in the nation. With injuries playing a big role in that, some better breaks could lead to this unit taking a step forward this season. Up front, DT Will Geary is a force, with pass-rushing end Jordan Willis wreaking havoc. Filling a few slots will be key, but Geary and Willis are difference-makers. Linebacker could be an even stronger presence, with play-maker Elijah Lee leading Will Davis and Charmeachealle Moore. The front-seven should help a secondary that stunk last season find their stride. Safety Dante Barnett returning from injury is huge and some better play from corners like Donnie Starks would really pay off.
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Kansas State looks on paper to be pretty much the same team they were last season or perhaps a tad better. There's something about this group, however, that suggests some hidden value. Maybe it's the guys coming back from injury, the possibility for rapid player development, or the fact that coach Snyder always finds the right answers. Whatever it is, one should hesitate in writing them off completely. Let's face it, though, this is really tough spot on the road for a team trying to find their bearings.
On the surface, Stanford at home at -15.5 might not seem like that lofty of a number against a so-so Kansas State team. At the same time, Stanford is working in a new QB, a revamped line, with a receiving crew that has yet to show they are terribly impactful. The only sure thing on this offense right now is Christian McCaffrey and he could get curtailed by the lack of variety coming from other sources of the Stanford offense, in addition to some pop on that KSU defensive line. If you project a slightly-better Wildcats team and combine it with a Stanford team that is still trying to figure things out on both sides of the ball, it's not hard to picture a Stanford win, but something by less than 15.5 points. I'm going with Kansas St.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Kansas State Wildcats +15.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!