Kentucky Wildcats (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Florida Gators (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date/Time: Saturday, September 10, 2016 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Florida
TV: CBS
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: UK +16.5/FLA -16.5
Over/Under Total: 47.5
In week two SEC action, the Kentucky Wildcats come to Gainesville to face the Florida Gators. The Wildcats are off to a slow start after a bizarre week one loss to Southern Miss. Up 35-10 late in the first-half, their offense and defense took the balance of the afternoon off, with Southern Miss winning, 44-35. Florida wasn't all that impressive in week one, but emerged with a 24-7 win over UMass. We're still trying to figure out last year's SEC East champs. They started 10-1 last season, before ending he season with 3 straight losses. With an uninspiring week one win, what version of the Gators will manifest as the season gets going?
It's mind-numbing to ponder the fact that Florida has beaten Kentucky in 29 straight meetings, the longest streak in college football. Last season, Kentucky was in there with a good shot to win, eventually losing, 14-9. Kentucky's week one performance was in some aspects promising, as the offense and defense were able to play well—for a half at least. But in what the team knows is a pivotal season, for them to melt in the second-half paints a dire picture. For two straight seasons, they were on the fringe of being bowl-eligible and to leave a win on the table is a bad sign.
Drew Barker threw for 323 yards in week one for Kentucky and looked pretty good at times, before a rough 2nd half. The Wildcats had a trio of costly turnovers, while neither side of the ball was able to register a key late play. Coach Mark Stoops is in his 4th season. On one hand, Kentucky is not a program that expects much good to happen because it never does. They are indisputable perennial SEC doormats. But there have been enough flashes in recent seasons to suggest it coming together at some point. That point might never come.
If there is ever a loss during the course of a season that can throw a betting man off-course, it's a week one loss. We've seen some bizarre things happen before in he first game of the season and a lot of it needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Etching an opinion in concrete on a team based on a week one game can have you chasing your tail all season. Southern Miss might be a Conference-USA team and the way the Wildcats lost is really miserable, but Kentucky lost to a good team and there is a long season ahead to atone for that.
The Kentucky offense has some experience and a certain level of competence, but there is nothing they do great. Barker showed some flash with the aerial attack, connecting with 2015 leading ball-catcher Garrett Johnson to the tune of 143 yards and a pair of scores. WR Tavin Richardson made his presence known with 74 yards. They also return leading rusher from '15, Stanley Boom Williams, who had 13 carries for 94 yards. But alas, in the second half, where were these guys? Kentucky could only account for 22 yards of offense in that timeframe after running wild in the first half.
Other than some nice playmaking by guys like JD Harmon (2 INTs), the Kentucky defense wasn't very good on Saturday. That's upsetting with a nice mix of experience and potential existing on this side of the ball. There are huge bodies on the inside of the line, but you wouldn't have known it by the way Southern Miss ran the ball against them. Big-bodied defensive backs were out-battled for balls. And when things started slipping away late, the absence of clutch was disturbing.
You have to take your hat off to Florida coach Jim McElwain for the job he did in his first season as Gators head coach. The former offensive coordinator for Alabama took a slip-sliding Florida program that had fallen on hard times and got them to the SEC East division title in his first season at the helm. It's hard to take any shots at Florida after restoring their credibility in such quick order. By the same token, they have been shaky since jumping out to a 10-1 start last season. They kept winning after losing QB Will Grier, but the offense never really bounced back and after a moribund 24-point output against UMass with just two touchdowns, there is concern if Florida is receding a bit.
Luke Del Rio takes over the QB duties for Florida now, The slinger was 29-for-44 for 256 yards and a pair of touchdowns in week one. The well-traveled quarterback was first with Alabama, before going to Oregon State. Now he's behind center for the Gators and while there were some good signs, the offense will have to get better as they move forward. It seems like that would be an area of high-focus in practice this week.
The Florida run-game will need to produce a player after the departure of Kelvin Taylor. Jordan Scarlett was OK in week one, while Mark Thompson offers some upside. This still looks like a part of the team that could struggle, as evidenced by Del Rio getting a heavy workload of 44 attempts in his UF debut. At the same time, if Del Rio can bring out the best in Antonio Callaway and Brandon Powell, while getting Jordan Cronkrite and Andre Goolsby involved, this offense will have some nice punch in the aerial attack.
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The Florida "D" was naturally a huge part of their success last season. They even kept the team afloat when the offense went into the tank. The problem is that each phase lost their best player. A lot of weapons remain with high-grade youngsters in the wings. The secondary features Marcus Maye, but the status of Jalen Tabor, their best player on "D," is unknown going into week two. The front looks pretty strong and if they apply consistent QB pressure as they did last season and in week one, the rest of the defense could come around. That dicey middle packed with youth and a secondary not at full-power are issues to keep an eye on, however.
The pessimism with Kentucky is understandable. It's hard to not notice how they never make anything happen of any real substance. They're a veritable afterthought in a lot of ways. When a team loses like they did in the first week and are about to play a team they've lost to 29 straight times, the bettor's mind can start to run with the story a little bit. The truth is that Florida might be leveling out a tiny bit, as they are working on a lot of things on both sides of the ball. Not that one should be thrilled about Kentucky's prospects in this game, but that number seems hefty and taking Florida rings as being almost too easy of a conclusion.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Kentucky Wildcats plus 16.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Kentucky vs. Florida game from the comfort of your home by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
