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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Point Spread - Pick

Kentucky Wildcats (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS)
College Football Week 9
Date/Time: Thursday, October 24, 2013 at 7:30PM EST
Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
TV: ESPN

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: UK +10/MSU -10
Over/Under Total: 56

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On Thursday, the Kentucky Wildcats meet the Mississippi State Bulldogs in a SEC matchup. Even while playing in the top conference in college football, these two teams don’t get a ton of attention--drowned out by the other powers in the conference. But for them--it’s a big game, where they are isolated on the schedule and get to show the nation what they’re about in a Thursday game.

Mississippi St. is a double-digit home favorite. In their 3 wins, they beat Alcorn State, Troy, and on Saturday, they defeated a decent Ball State squad. They have lost to Oklahoma State in the opener, before dropping conference games to Auburn and LSU. They lost by only 4 at Auburn, before losing by 33 at home to LSU. Kentucky has even less to hang their hats on, with a win over lowly Miami-Ohio their only triumph this season. Besides that, they lost to Western Kentucky, Louisville, Florida, South Carolina, and Alabama on Saturday. In those 5 losses, they covered the spread only once. In their last game two weeks ago, they lost to top-ranked Alabama, 48-7.

So Mississippi State has been a little better. Other than the 59 points they gave up to LSU, they haven’t allowed more than 24 points in any other game. They have a good run game, led by running quarterback Dak Prescott, who has 8 touchdowns and almost 900 yards on over 7 yards per carry. In a 3-game stretch earlier this season, he compiled over 600 yards on the ground and if he can rediscover that form on Thursday, Kentucky is going to have problems. That seems to be a distinct possibility, with the Wildcats run defense exceptionally ragged so far in 2013.

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Kentucky is in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Mark Stoops. He’s trying to instill a new tradition on a team long mired in a losing pattern. Football is an afterthought at Kentucky, with all the attention of their hoops team. Stoops has his work cut out to even bolster this program to a state of mediocrity. A lot of the same issues that plagued Kentucky in recent years are continuing to surface this season--a sloppy defense, subpar quarterback play, and a group of guys who simply don’t know how to win. This is a squad that last won a conference game in 2011.

While Mississippi State is hardly lighting the world on fire, they’re in a far better position than Kentucky. They’ve been to 3 consecutive bowl games and have a lot of experience on this team. They lost their top 4 receiving threats in the offseason, but still have a lot of talent on the front line. Their aerial attack is not what it was last year, but that’s because Prescott is seeing more time at quarterback, where he features his legs more than his arm. But Tyler Russell, the more pass-inclined quarterback, is still there and seeing more time the last several games, so there is an air of variety to their offense.

Kentucky, meanwhile, has an offense that could be gratuitously labeled as pedestrian. Growing pains had to be expected, but it’s been really rough. Quarterbacks Maxwell Smith and Jalen Whitlow haven’t been terrible statistically, but watching the games makes you wonder if they’ve really moved forward as players. The bulk of their skill positions are comprised by freshmen trying to find their bearings and veterans from a team that has been consistently providing the worst offense in the conference.

On one hand, this is the same Kentucky team that managed to keep South Carolina within a touchdown on the road a few weeks ago. If they did that, they should conceivably be able to stay within 10 of Mississippi State. Then again, that’s possibly the best-case-scenario for Kentucky. If the same team shows up that lost to WKU by 9 or the team that seemed to give up against Alabama--that number will be more difficult to cover. With Mississippi State, however, their point totals are bolstered by huge wipeouts of Alcorn and Troy. Remove those results and their point-output don’t necessarily make you feel that great about giving up double-digits to bet on them. If they could only beat the MAC’s Bowling Green by 1 at home last week, why couldn’t an SEC team hang in there a little bit?

That all sounds good and well, until you see Kentucky play when things aren’t going so well. It can become a stink-fest pretty quick--enough to render all analysis or reasoning moot. Do feelings of discomfort arise in giving 10 points on a team like Mississippi State in a conference game? Sure. But let’s face it, Kentucky is an SEC team in name only.

Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus 10 points.

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