LSU Tigers (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS)
College Football Week 8
Date/Time: Saturday, October 19, 2013 at 7PM EST
Where: Vaught Hemingway Stadium, University, Mississippi
TV: ESPN2
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: LSU -8/MISS +8
Over/Under Total: TBA
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In a big SEC matchup on Saturday, the LSU Tigers take to the road to face the Ole Miss Rebels. LSU is coming off a 17-9 win over Florida and has played a tough schedule so far this year, losing only to Georgia by a field goal. Ole Miss, though only 3-3, is probably a little better than that. On Saturday, they came up on the short end of a 41-38 shootout against Texas A&M. Last season, LSU won this matchup when they broke a tie late with time running out with a go-ahead touchdown by Jeremy Hill.
LSU may have lost a 3-point squeaker on the road to Georgia a few weeks ago, but make no mistake, this is one of the best teams in the nation. One of the worst passing offenses in the SEC last season, Zach Mettenberger is among the more improved quarterbacks in the nation, with 15 touchdowns and 2 picks to go along with nearly 2000 yards. RB Jeremy Hill, suspended early, has come back in explosive form and now has 9 touchdowns on 715 yards rushing, with an average of over 7 yards per carry. And let’s not forget the dynamite receiver duo of Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, Jr., who have a combined 1400+ yards and 13 touchdowns.
Defensively, LSU has been giving up their share of points. We should also keep in mind the level of opposition before leveling any accusations. Are they as stout as last year? Probably not. At the beginning of the season, it was being said that the team would be fine and if only the offense could upgrade a little bit. Now, it looks like the offense is a team strength, with the defense having taken a step back. But on Sunday, they gave up no touchdowns to Florida. Maybe they’re finding their groove a little bit, after giving up 26 to Mississippi State, 44 to Georgia, and 27 to TCU. It’s still unclear if that’s even so bad. When playing good offenses, you’re going to allow points.
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You have to feel for Ole Miss after Saturday’s game. Halfway through the 4th quarter in a back-and-forth game, the Rebels took a 38-31 lead, before allowing 10 late unanswered points and falling to the late dramatics of Johnny Manziel and Company. It would have been a huge win for Ole Miss, but they haven’t been able to turn the corner this year. Ole Miss, some said, were going to join the SEC semi-elite this year, at least get up there on the level of a South Carolina or Florida and it really hasn’t happened. Losing to Alabama and A&M is one thing, but throw in an 8-point defeat to Auburn and they are a bit of a disappointment so far. A win against LSU would make that a lot better. Look for them to be gunning hard for the win here, despite maybe being a bit drained after a tough game on Saturday and a rough patch of games in recent weeks.
A loss to Alabama where they didn’t score and losing to Auburn is upsetting, but their showing at College Station on Sunday shows something. It illustrates that we may be off-base in relegating Ole Miss as SEC filler. They’re better than that. QB Bo Wallace is a bundle of energy--a real tough gamer who can run and avoid pressure in the pocket. He’s coming off consecutive 300-yard games, though in losing efforts. RB Jeff Scott is a speedster, averaging 8.2 yards per carry. But he has only 18 carries with 104 yards in his last 3 games and they need to involve him more. Barry Brunetti is a useful short yardage guy and Laquon Treadwell, Donte Moncrief, and Evan Engram are good receivers. It’s not a bad offense and they could improve as the season wears on. Head coach Hugh Freeze has things headed in the right direction and they just need the results now. With guys like Prewitt, Nkemdiche, and Conner on the other side of the ball, the defense has the talent, but needs to come together. It can still happen for the Rebels.
Look for the LSU D-line, with monsters Anthony Johnson and Ego Ferguson, to help LSU control the line of scrimmage. And the Tigers’ secondary has been doing better and while Wallace may have his moments, this “D” should be able to get a couple potentially game-changing turnovers. While Florida’s tough “D” held LSU to 17 points last week, look for the offense to have a better game on Saturday. It should be a difficult assignment against a motivated opponent on the road, but look for the LSU cream to rise to the top at the end of 4 quarters.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take LSU minus 8 points.
