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Point Spread - Pick

LSU Tigers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Saturday August 31, 2013 at 8PM EST
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
TV: ESPN

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: LSU -4/TCU +4
Over/Under Total: 43

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On August 31, LSU travels to TCU in one of the key opening games of the 2013 college football season. LSU looks to keep a good thing going after three straight 10-win seasons. A bit overlooked this year in a stacked SEC, they remain a formidable threat. TCU, only 7-6 last season, is looking to take a giant step forward and it looks like that just might be in the cards for the Horned Frogs.

You see a team coming off a 7-6 season that is in its second season moving to the tougher Big 12 from the Mountain West and it’s easy to make some rash conclusions. Like maybe they’re in over their head and no longer the same program they were with an easier schedule. They were 11-2 the previous year and had come down to earth in a real conference. That might be a costly miscalculation.

The Horned Frogs certainly had their share of growing pains moving to the Big 12, but it got tough after losing star quarterback Casey Pachall, due to off-the-field issues. Fill-in Trevone Boykin filled in admirably, but lacked the same mojo of their former field general. It didn’t help that the run game never quite came around, something Boykin could have leaned on for relief. Look for that area to upgrade going into 2013. Looking at TCU and their 2012 season, some might find it surprising that other than Texas and Oklahoma State, no team is a bigger favorite than TCU. There’s a reason for that.

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They certainly didn’t catch a break in having to face a LSU team that might have a chip on their shoulder. They will say they don’t, but they have to notice how invisible they have become in the morass of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas A&M hype. They’ve become a SEC afterthought for really no good reason.

On paper, it looks like LSU should have a heck of a team. QB Zach Metternberger has rightfully caught his share of flack, but he quietly came on at the end of the 2012 season and should be better. The Tigers bring in offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who should get this offense moving if his track record is any indication. Look for Cameron to make job one getting the running game rolling, which should put Mettenberger in a better position to better establish the passing game.

LSU has never seemed to have trouble reloading, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They lost a lot of top talent in the NFL draft, guys like Mingo, Montgomery, and Reid, but since when have incoming youngsters and non-starters failed to get it done at LSU? And they have a lot of returning studs, with S Craig Loston, DT Anthony Johnson, Egu Ferguson, CB Tre’Davious White, and other guys who played well last year.

The Tigers have some things in place that line up well for a Metternberger renaissance. Or at least a small step up. The skepticism is understandable, with this being the 10th-ranked offense in the SEC last season. But they return a veteran offensive line, their top 2 rushers, and top 4 receivers from a year ago. Then again, that’s the same group of guys from last year where the offense couldn’t get it done. They will be tested in this game.

TCU’s bread-and-butter is a defense that led the Big 12 with 323.9 yards per game and 22.6 points per game. Ten players return from that defense and while the SEC is a different ball game, TCU is at home and facing a SEC offense that isn’t among the elite. Ten starters coming back from a good defense is a good sign, especially when one of those guys is a burgeoning star in DE Devonte Fields (suspended for first two games).

It’s not all about LSU scoring against LSU. The Tigers’ “D” is pretty tough and Pachall will need to open the season fast. The offense is the issue. Pachall is a fine college quarterback, but their top runner from last year was BJ Catalon, who was only good for 582 yards. Waymon James is a potential game-changer and is back from a knee injury so maybe he can provide some relief along with Nebraska transfer Aaron Green. TCU also returns 4 of its top 6 receivers, but again, the production wasn’t great, with Brandon Carter leading that group with 590 yards.

It might require a leap of faith, but the Tigers should score more points this season. It’s just that they really need to hit the ground running on the road against what may prove to be one of the toughest defenses in the nation. But make no mistake, TCU doesn’t have it easy in this spot either--in what figures to be their toughest opponent of the whole year right at the top of the schedule.

Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take LSU laying 4 points.

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