Miami Hurricanes (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. Florida State Seminoles (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS)
College Football Week 10
Date/Time: Saturday, November 2, 2013 at 8PM EST
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: MIA +22/FSU -22
Over/Under Total: 61
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In a monstrous ACC matchup with major BCS championship implications, the Miami Hurricanes meet the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday. This puts the winner in a realistic position to play in the big game at the end of the year. It’s a throwback to a time in the not-so-distant past when both of these teams were consistent big-time programs.
Perhaps a lot of people will read too much into last week’s results. They stood in direct contrast, with Miami barely scraping by against 26-point underdogs Wake Forest, while Florida State blew out NC State--a team they lost to last season. Still, last week’s games are not the only reason Florida State is getting more respect.
Miami has exceeded expectations, taking a painfully young team from last year and seeing monstrous improvement across the board in 2013. It’s just that Florida St. has rightfully earned the reputation of the more explosive team and they have seen it take flight against tougher opposition. You never want to see a team’s success to revolve around a single win, but a 51-14 win over unbeaten title contender Clemson stands out as the best win of any team this season in college football thus far.
Add into the equation what looks to be a instant game-changer in Seminoles QB Jameis Winston and it really gives them an added dimension. Winston stars in a versatile offense with s a slew of game changers in the rushing and receiving corps. What’s making it really come together is a defense that has been stingy--really tough on opposing quarterbacks and very resistant to giving up scores. There was that one weird game, where a home Boston College team had an offensive spurt, requiring Florida State to storm back to win, 48-34. Other than that, this defense has not allowed more than 14 points in any of their games. With the Seminoles offense in full bloom, putting up 50-60 points a game, this is an extremely tough package to beat.
Let’s not be blinded by the glitter of Florida State, however. Sometimes, we are distracted by what shimmers more brightly, while neglecting to acknowledge the true value of the other side. That’s especially true in college football, when a flashy offensive team meets a more proletariat one. Not that Miami isn’t capable of major offensive output, because they certainly are. QB Stephen Morris was expected to improve, but few predicted they would be one win away at this point in the season from jumping into the BCS title picture.
Teams like the Hurricanes are easy to overlook. They get it done with a running game, a clutch defense, special teams, good coaching, and team talent that is spread evenly among the team. Head coach Al Golden, a defensive guy by trade, has taken a defense that was laughable and turned it into a respectable unit. While hardly airtight, they play well as a unit and they seem to step up the more critical the situation is.
The problem with Miami, however, for the purposes of winning this game are multifold. They’ve been struggling on third down and Morris sometimes makes bad decisions in an effort to keep drives alive. Some skill position guys are banged-up. The defense can struggle to make tackles from time to time. In each of their last three games, they’ve needed to overcome double-digit deficits in order to win. So whereas Florida State soars into this matchup while playing at home, Miami has labored to get to this spot. But they are here and that’s what counts.
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Some feel, and rightfully so, that Miami could be a bit overrated. And there is some evidence from recent showings that bolsters that claim. The defense, while good in spots, can also tend to struggle, especially in key spots and when trying to put pressure on the quarterback. We’ve also seen turnovers begin to rear their ugly head. Miami is winning, so a lot of these issues get swept under the rug in lieu of the bottom line, which is a 7-0 record. But make no mistake, these are not errors they can afford to make against Florida State.
The 22-point opening spread is a bit jaw-dropping in a conference game featuring unbeaten teams. Fla. St. beat Miami last season by 13 points. How much that matters here is debatable, with both teams markedly better this season. The way Miami has been playing, when counterbalanced with Florida State appearing to hit their peak, makes the spread a little more understandable. The best case scenario for Miami might be to stay within 14-17 points, but the worst case scenario puts that number into the 30’s or even 40’s. I expect a full-bloom Seminoles squad to give Miami a hammering, pulling away late in the game to cover that big number.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting the Florida St. Seminoles minus 22 points.
