Miami Hurricanes (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS)
College Football Week 8
Date/Time: Thursday, October 17, 2013 at 7:30PM EST
Where: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: MIA -8/NC +8
Over/Under Total: OFF
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On Thursday, the Miami Hurricanes come into Chapel hill to face the North Carolina Tar Heels in a key ACC Coastal Division battle. Miami has fulfilled the promise they established last season as a young up-and-coming team. Players have blossomed and they are poised to have a big season. Unfortunately, the Tar Heels have taken a step back this year at 1-4 and need to come up with something big to turn around a season that is teetering on disaster.
North Carolina came into this year with promise after an 8-4 season in 2012. Sure, they lost star back Giovani Bernard and some guys up front, but QB Bryn Renner was coming into his 4th year as a starter and coming off a huge 2012. Coach Larry Fedora was in his second season and had a lot of talent to work his spread offense. Bowl-eligible after a ban, things looked to be picking up for the Heels.
The loss at South Carolina to open the season wasn’t so awful and they won their second game and covered the spread against Middle Tennessee. But then they began stinking it up royally. They lost at Georgia Tech, but the real kicker was a 34-point loss to East Carolina, where UNC was nearly two-touchdown favorites entering the game. They followed that with a flat 10-point defeat to Virginia Tech. And now they have to face an unbeaten team on the rise. To top that off, Bryn Renner missed the Virginia Tech game with a foot injury. Luckily for him, there is a nearly two-week break leading up to this game, but he is still questionable. Things aren’t exactly looking up for North Carolina and you have to wonder if any negative thoughts will start creeping in with this season already getting sideways.
Miami is also entering a bowl-eligible season after a ban. They also had high expectations, despite only going 7-5 last season. They were so young and the thought was that there was talent galore on this team. If only they could develop, they could revive this program a bit. And they have, though it’s still early. Under Al Golden, this program has been whipped into shape. Young bucks QB Stephen Morris and RB Duke Johnson have taken steps forward. With the whole offense returning, they have all congealed to form a force. Defensively-oriented coach Golden has this “D” allowing only 16 points per game, while being 2nd in the entire nation in pass defense. With an offense going for 45.2 points per game, that’s an equation that’s gonna be tough to beat.
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At the same time, Miami still has an unproven vibe to them. Beating Florida in their second game was a big deal. Other than that, they’ve beaten Florida Atlantic, Savannah State, and an awful South Florida team. Their last game, a win over Georgia Tech, was against a better opponent, but there are still some questions to answer. But after seeing North Carolina play this season, it’s doubtful whether they can even ask those tough questions.
North Carolina reserves the right to turn it around. And they did beat this Miami team last season in a big road win. They didn’t catch the easy-breezy early schedule that Miami was afforded or maybe the story would be a little different. And it’s going to be hard to beat teams like Virginia Tech when the star of your team is out with an injury. While they’re a rough 1-4 against-the-spread, a few of those ATS losses were just by a few points. In other words, it may be premature to relegate North Carolina to the scrap heap, even though the early signs are very troubling.
North Carolina is struggling massively to find a run game, bringing to light how important Bernard was to their success last season. Their lack of a run has hurt Renner and the quality of his aerial attack. A couple key losses in the offensive line have resonated badly. But there is still talent and maybe they can get it together. Just a little upsurge might not get them to a bowl game, but at least they can start covering spreads again.
The point-spread of Miami -8 speaks to the slippage in the Tar Heels form this season. North Carolina beat Miami last year and won more games, but they have slipped, whereas the ‘Canes have furthered their cause early in 2013. But neither of those appraisals are to be etched in concrete. There is still a lot of football left and teams don’t always finish a season the way they start it. Still, it’s hard to get behind North Carolina at this time.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting the Miami Hurricanes minus the 8 points.
