Michigan State Spartans (11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)
College Football Week 15
Date/Time: Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 8:17PM EST
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
TV: Fox
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: MSU +5.5/OSU -5.5
Over/Under Total: 51.5
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In the Big Ten Championship, the Michigan State Spartans face the Ohio State Buckeyes at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The unbeaten and 2nd-ranked Buckeyes are looking to play in the BCS Championship Game and only this game stands in their way. Michigan State, a surprising 11-1, has won 8 in a row and is really hitting their stride.
Michigan really gave Ohio State a run for their money on Saturday in their yearly regular season-ending matchup, with a failed two-point conversion at the end spelling the difference. Ohio State, as you would imagine is the case with any team that has won 24 straight games, found a way to win. That’s an important trait to have. For being unbeaten, the Buckeyes haven’t been much of a team to bet on this season (only 6-5-1 ATS), but they’re a team that wins. Also on Saturday, Michigan State overcame a determined Minnesota team, 14-3.
With a good Spartans team, the defense is usually a big part of their success and that’s surely the case in 2013. In 5 of their last 6 games, their “D” has allowed 6 points or less. And that’s not against lowly non-conference teams, either, that’s against pretty good teams like Michigan, Northwestern, and Minnesota. Ohio State is a different ballgame, but Michigan State is the real deal--at least on defense.
While comparing games against common opponents can be a faulty barometer, Ohio State had a lot of trouble stopping Michigan’s offense at times, while the Spartans held the Wolverines to only a pair of first half field goals in their game. To take it a step further, Illinois and Northwestern scored 35 and 30, respectively, against Ohio State. Michigan State held those two teams to a total of 9 combined points. The Spartans are 9th in the nation against the pass and are tops in college football against the run, allowing a paltry 64 yards a game on the ground. Rightfully, that commands respect.
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Again, with the Big Ten on the weak side this season, those numbers can be misleading. Michigan State has yet to face a running back like Ohio State’s Carlos Hyde and QB Braxton Miller, who runs as well as any back in the conference with the possible exception of Hyde. Miller has 21 touchdowns with only 5 picks, with another 8 scores on the ground. The Buckeyes’ rushing attack is probably the best in college football. Against the Spartans’ top-ranked run “D,” this is a true heavyweight matchup in the trenches.
Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook has enjoyed an efficiently-capable season, with 17 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. RB Jeremy Langford has seemingly gotten better with every game and is on the heels of 7 straight 100-yard games with 12 touchdowns in that stretch. While there are no game-breakers in the pass game, the cast is deep. Again, this a team that depends on their “D.”
Ohio State might have some extra wind in their sails now that they are ranked in the top-two in the BCS. Ever since the rankings came out, they were sitting at third, waiting for one of the top two dogs to take a loss, which finally happened on Saturday with Alabama getting beaten. That might fortify this team, with a readily-achievable goal now within reaching distance. The light at the end of a long tunnel is now plainly in view. After going 12-0 last year as a bowl-ineligible team, their goals are now crystalizing and that may invigorate a team that has experienced some flatness in recent weeks. You have a group of players and coaches who have worked hard for two years and this is their first sniff at a payoff--a conference championship hopefully followed by a berth in the BCS Championship Game.
It’s an interesting matchup. Michigan State’s defense is perhaps better, but even if Ohio State struggles against the pass, the Spartans aren’t that strong in that area. And maybe the scores and common opponents are misleading, with both teams in totally divergent positions. Can Michigan State step up and combat the best offense they’ve faced this season? Will their offense that stresses efficiency and mistake-free football be explosive enough to test the Buckeyes “D” and put up enough points?
This is a difficult game for Ohio State, certainly the toughest of the season. They had a scare against Michigan and when coupled with them now being number-two in the BCS, they might be a little more jacked up and ready to unleash the full scope of their powers. The Spartans’ “D” is scary, but I see the Buckeyes getting it done.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the Ohio State Buckeyes minus 5.5 points.
