Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. LSU Tigers (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday, September 17, 2016 at 7PM EST
Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: MSST +14/LSU -14
Over/Under Total: 44
The Mississippi State Bulldogs come to Baton Rouge to face the LSU Tigers in week 3 SEC action. Neither team has gotten off to the start they envisioned. The opening week of the season was tough on the SEC, with Miss St. and Louisiana State among the casualties. Both were able to right the ship in week two, as the Bulldogs got their SEC schedule off to a good start with a 27-14 win over South Carolina. LSU, meanwhile overcame a tough week one loss to Wisconsin to beat FCS foe Jacksonville State, 34-13.
It's one thing to lose to Wisconsin, as LSU did, but Mississippi State got the post-Dak Prescott era off to a really rocky start in a last-minute loss to the Sun Belt's South Alabama. After taking a 17-0 halftime lead, they basically took the balance of the afternoon off, while the Jaguars got to work and notched the program's best-ever win. They didn't commit any turnovers, but just stunk it up in the second half against a team that was a 27.5-point underdog. It made the win over a down South Carolina team very important.
The loss to South Alabama led to a change at QB for Miss St., with Damian Williams sitting in favor of Nick Dylan Fitzgerald. With him running for 195 yards and throwing for a pair of touchdowns, the 6'5" sophomore will likely get the nod at least for the time being. Among the weapons at Fitzgerald's disposal will be leading receiver from last season Fred Ross, along with Brandon Holloway and Donald Gray. We don't want to get too excited over Fitzgerald's performance against South Carolina, but it was the first time they had beaten the Gamecocks since 1999. He might put wind in the team's sails, as he really was electric with his legs. Whether he can take full advantage of the talent on his receiving crew remains to be seen. While it wasn't evident in week one, a more experienced line was supposed to help ease a new quarterback into action.
Six of the top 7 tacklers from last season return for Mississippi St. this season and that should pay off at some point. It was alarming to see such a lack of clutch as the game was slipping away against South Alabama, who went on to lose by 15 the following week to Georgia Southern, by the way. One would like to see this defense answer the tough questions before just blindly signing off that they should be better. But with a new coordinator in tow, maybe some growing pains were to be expected for the Bulldogs.
Louisiana St. was able to get on the winning track in week two after the demoralizing week one loss to Wisconsin. They were 12.5-point favorites and were in position to win the game late, when some careless errors by QB Brandon Harris cost them the game. Against Jacksonville State, LSU made a change, with Purdue transfer Danny Etling taking over behind center. He wasn't electric by any means. But perhaps he will be adequate and let the run-game take over, while relying on a solid defense. Leonard Fournette was held back on Saturday with an ankle injury, but is expected to make a contribution this week in their SEC opener.
In Fournette's absence, LSU was able to show how deep they are at running back, with Derrius Guice gaining 155 yards with a touchdown. They have talent at receiver with Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre, among others, but it has hardly made a dent in their first two games, Maybe they tap into that part of their offense more this week. It's just that this was supposed to be the year the Tigers put it all together. But it doesn't look like the offense will allow that to happen. Fournette's star shined so brightly before the year began that maybe it blinded some people to the gaping hole that is caused by substandard quarterback play. It's already cost them this in this young season and it could again in this game.
The LSU defense has been doing its job for the most part. Against Wisconsin in their opener, a late scoring drive helped the Badgers nose ahead, but giving up 16 to Wisconsin hardly qualifies as a failure. If anything, giving up some big plays to Jacksonville State and even trailing briefly in the 2nd quarter was more alarming. Still, as they approached the end of the first half, LSU clung to a narrow 13-10 lead and never really threatened to cover the spread in either of their first two games. At the same time, we shouldn't place an over-abundance of stock in their first two games and get too caught up in the disappointment of it all. They may have been overrated entering the season, but there's still a lot of work to do where they can put that week one loss in the rearview and make some special things happen. The real work starts this Saturday.
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At the same time, some things are not panning out already for the Tigers. Brandon Harris has already been pulled, with the dashed hopes being that he could elevate his game. Fournette is already banged up, though Guice is more than a suitable replacement. When a team has their sights set on national adulation and they get upset in week one, it can leave a group crestfallen and LSU looked a bit deflated on Saturday and were lucky to be playing Jacksonville State. A similar performance this week would really take them out of contention. In last season's matchup between these two teams, LSU emerged a 2-point winner at home, with the Bulldogs staging a furious late rally that fell short. Fournette was the star of the game with 159 yards and three TDs. They'd like to see a similar performance this week.
Both teams are dealing with some growing pains and some early uncertainty at quarterback. With LSU, they have been accustomed with that for the past few seasons, but Mississippi State was moiré dependent on their QB for success. At the same time, the Bulldogs' overall options might be better, as LSU is now stuck between the less-than-tantalizing duo of Harris and Etling. I anticipate a better all-around performance from the Tigers in Baton Rouge, which is still a really tough place to play. I'm leaning toward the Tigers in this one.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the LSU Tigers minus 14 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Mississippi State vs. LSU game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
