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Missouri Tigers vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Point Spread - Pick

Missouri Tigers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Saturday, September 3, 2016 at 12PM EST
Where: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, West Virginia
TV: Fox Sports 1

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: MIZZ +11/WVU -11
Over/Under Total: Off

The Missouri Tigers come to Morgantown to face the West Virginia Mountaineers in key week one action on opening Saturday. Missouri faces a tough week one game at rollicking Milan Puskar Stadium for a team trying to figure out things after a rough 5-7 season. The Mizzou offense was terrible, topping 20 points scoring once in their last ten games, with an overall 3-9 against-the-spread record. West Virginia is coming off an 8-5 campaign, with a 6-1 record in Morgantown. They ended the season on a great note with a memorable 43-42 bowl win over Arizona State. For the Tigers, the offensive prognosis is good, with more of a sense of impending doom with the defense.

Look for WVU coach Dana Holgersen to field another potent offense for 2016. It's really all reliant on the development of quarterback Skyler Howard. If he can cut down on turnovers and become the solid dual-threat package the coaching staff suspects he can be, it gives the offense and whole team a big boost. Running back Rushel Shell has seemingly been in the college ranks for a decade—first with Pitt and now firmly entrenched with the Mountaineers. He has never been given the workload that would allow him to morph into a true featured back, but he will likely be given that opportunity this season. Juco transfer Justin Crawford could also provide production.

A good West Virginia offense usually packs a pretty big punch aerially. This season's WVU passing-game returns good receivers like Shelton Gibson and Daikiel Shorts. Also carrying the load will be Jovon Durante, Ka'Raun White, and whatever speedsters manifest before the season, which there always seems to be. A solid front line should help bring all the West Virginia offensive potential together, with 4 starters from a good 2015 unit returning. Players like Kyle Bosch, Tyler Orlosky, and Adam Pankey should help spring an offense that looks even better than last season. There is a ton of talent on this side of the ball, a lot of which is being projected to hit its stride this season. But alas, it all comes down to the defense.

Like a lot of teams with an abundance of offensive firepower, the defense is the sticking point with West Virginia. The offense is good, but not good enough to mask a truly awful defense. With three returning starters, that possibility exists. A lot of questions need to be answered, with the likelihood being that not all of them will be answered in the affirmative. There were too many losses from a group that wasn't any good to begin with. They have a nice piece on the line with Noble Nwachukwu, a formidable pass-rusher and run-stopper at the end position. Christian Brown is on the other end, with some beef needing to be found to plug on the inside. The youth movement is heavy in the middle, with three starting linebackers departed. At the same time, there is such an abundance of options that maybe they can field a respectable group. The same applies to the secondary, with so many new faces that it's hard to be terribly optimistic.

Missouri is definitely headed in the wrong direction after a rough 2015 that started at 4-1 before bottoming out at 5-7. New head coach Barry Odom has one of the more unenviable gigs in the country, entrusted to reverse the course of a tepid offense that averaged under ten points a game last season. And he has only served as a defensive assistant in his coaching career. The offense will be coordinated by former Oklahoma QB and Heisman runner-up Josh Heupel, whose first order of business is to get Tigers' quarterback Drew Lock on the right track. Heupel will also be looking to extract some of the previously untapped potential of guys at the skill positions, like running back Ish Witter. Look for Nate Strong to get some touches if Witter is not up-to-snuff.

The same sentiment applies to the Missouri receiving unit, with J'Mon Moore, Nate Brown, and others who haven't quite made it happen yet. Cam Hilton, Ray Wingo, and Alabama transfer Chris Black could also find their way into the rotation. Nate Crawford was supposed to anchor an offensive line that lost 4 starters, but now he has retired. On one hand, the line wasn't an asset last season, but bringing in a bunch of freshmen or guys that couldn't beat out last year's bunch doesn't paint a very rosy scenario. Expectations are pretty low for this line and in a lot of ways, for this entire offense.

The Missouri defense has been wasted by an offense that can't come close to carrying its load. And for getting hung out to dry as much as they have, this "D" has been pretty stellar. A line that was supposed to be good was hit hard by dismissals, leaving rising Charles Harris and Terry Beckner. This isn't quite the strong foundation for the defense it was supposed to be. Michael Scherer and Donavin Newsom are solid at the linebacker position, though they may be a little thin in that category. Safety Anthony Sherrils and corner Aarion Penton are solid in the secondary, though a few pieces need to be found. They were 5th nationally in pass-"D" last season and that's likely to tail off some.

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This might not be the nightmare some expect for Missouri, especially against teams with iffy defenses like West Virginia's. This is a game where a retooled Missouri offense can have some of these changes in philosophy and leadership pay off. And their defense will probably keep them in games this season. The offense can't get any worse and Missouri's defense was still able to keep them in some games last season. Even so, this a tough opening road assignment for this Missouri defense.

The line of West Virginia -11 is a bit problematic for potential Mountaineers backers. In a way, it seems too easy with WVU at home and that offense. But what if Missouri was able to put something together offensively against this suspect West Virginia defense? That defense could make it tough it to cover that number. I suspect the Mountaineers will take this, but I like Missouri to cover the spread.

Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Missouri Tigers plus 11 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!

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