Nevada Wolf Pack (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (1-3 SU, 2-1 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 11:59PM EST
Where: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: NEV -3.5/HAW +3.5
Over/Under Total: 58.5
The Nevada Wolf Pack come to Honolulu on Saturday to take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in Mountain West Conference late-Saturday action. Nevada fell to Purdue on Saturday, giving up a lead and going scoreless in the second half to lose 24-14. They are now 2-2. Hawaii was off last week, following a 47-28 loss to Arizona in week 3. They are 1-3 with their only win coming against FCS school Tennessee-Martin. Let's face it—there's a lot more attractive games on the schedule, but this is the late game from Hawaii—the degenerate's cherry on top of college football Saturday. And for those still slugging it out late-night, this is a chance to make things better. Let's see what we can come up with.
Both teams have been put through some trying times already. Hawaii, with new head coach Nick Rolovich, are trying to get their act together after a horrible 2015 season where they were 3-10 straight up and against the spread. First, they had to open against high-powered Cal in Sydney Australia, losing 51-31, before having to go to Michigan of all places and getting massacred 63-3. An entirely too-close-for-comfort 41-36 win over Tennessee-Martin followed, before the loss to Arizona two weeks ago. It's been a tough way to open the season, but they covered the spread against Cal and Arizona.
Let's call a spade a spade—Hawaii stinks. But they look better than last season. They're at least putting up points, as Rolovich begins the long process of restoring Hawaii to its high-flying ways. Against Cal and Arizona, they showed flashes of that, even if the Rainbow Warriors were dogmeat in Ann Arbor. They scored 40 against Tenn-Martin, but it was a troubling result, as Ikaika Woolsey needed a long-distance connection with receiver Marcus Kemp to reclaim the lead in the 4th quarter. Against a so-so FCS team, that's a bad sign. But there are overall signs that are good as Hawaii now finds itself in conference games they can try to win. They had zero last season.
The offense is looking decent for the Rainbow Warriors, with nine returners and a coach who looks to add some life to a once prolific Hawaii team. Quarterback Ikaika Woolsey has 6 touchdowns and 6 picks, which isn't very good along with a 48.9 completion percentage. There is some signs of a run-game, with returning 1000-yard rusher Paul Harris and Diocemy Saint Juste and Steven Lakalala, who have combined for 494 yards and 6 touchdowns so far. With four scores, Marcus Kemp is the star of the aerial attack, with freshman John Ursua starting to come around. It's at least a group that is getting something out of what they have, which wasn't easy to say last season. Scoring 31 and 28 against Pac-12 teams like Cal and Arizona means they might be able to do damage at home against conference teams like Nevada.
The Hawaii defense needs to perform better against more-manageable offenses like this. Against Cal, Michigan, and Arizona, a team like Hawaii is going to give up points. We know that coming out of the gate. This is where they have to show some mettle. After giving up 36 to Tennessee-Martin, it's not clear they can keep many offenses in check. They've given up 51, 63, 36, and 47 points in their four games this season. The offense will put up points at home, but will this "D" be able to keep the Wolf Pack in check?
Nevada fell to Purdue, 24-14, on Saturday in another tough road spot. In week 2, they had to go to Notre Dame, losing 39-10. They have won home games against FCS foe Cal Poly and Buffalo. The loss to Purdue was discouraging; as Nevada took a 14-3 lead deep into the first half. Purdue was able to hold them scoreless for the duration of the game and pulled away a little at the end. A few early Purdue turnovers put Nevada in good position and they took advantage. But on offense, they were unable to sustain drives.
Last season, Nevada beat Hawaii 30-20, but that game was in Reno. This game being in Honolulu is a whole different ball game. When Nevada came to Hawai'i in 2014, they won by 8 points. QB Tyler Stewart was 22-for-29 on Saturday and threw two early touchdowns to James Butler and Hassan Henderson. Wyatt Demps added 5 catches and Jerico Richardson added four, while the run-game was held to a modest 68 yards on 33 carries. Butler has been good this season, but they're an offense that can struggle. They're working on different things and like Hawaii, it's going to take time for things to start clicking on a consistent basis.
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With the Nevada defense, the signs are mixed. The opener had them giving up 27 to Cal Poly, not a terribly positive development. Giving up 39 to a home Notre Dame team wasn't so bad, nor was allowing 14 to Buffalo. Giving up 24 to Purdue and making some noise early wasn't awful. But after watching Hawaii put up points against Pac-12 defenses, will the Wolf Pack "D" be able to hold down the Rainbow Warriors offense? The Nevada secondary is an experienced and capable one and they won't make it easy on Hawaii.
This is actually an interesting game from a handicapping standpoint. Every conclusion you make is followed by "but…" There is a lot of contrasting information. I see both offenses having a degree of some success. It's not easy for a bunch of youngsters from Reno to go to Indiana, come back home, return to Indiana, come home again, and then take off to Hawaii in a few days. That's a lot of travel and a lot of it being out of their element, with massive climate and altitude changes, It can leave a young bunch pretty sapped. Meanwhile, Hawaii had last week off and is at home and dug in—ready to do business. I think that gap in energy will be evident late in the game, as the Rainbow Warriors notch the cover.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Nevada Wolf Pack plus 3.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Wolf Pack vs. Rainbow Warriors game at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
