Nevada Wolf Pack (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date/Time: Saturday, September 10, 2016 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Indiana
TV: NBC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: NEV +27.5/ND -27.5
Over/Under Total: 60.5
The Nevada Wolf Pack come out east to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday in week two college football action. Needless to say, it's a pretty rough spot for Nevada, leaving Reno to face a good and irritated Irish bunch. Week one was hardly a source of promise for the boys out of Reno, as they needed overtime to barely skate by FCS school Cal Poly in their opener, 30-27. It didn't compare to the Sunday night thriller Notre Dame was involved with against Texas. It didn't go the Irish's way, however, as they were beaten 50-47 in double overtime.
Week one certainly painted Nevada in a bad light. After a 7-6 campaign in 2015, their 4th 7-6 finish in the past 5 seasons, and with 15 returning starters, more was expected against their week one opponent. Last season was expected to be worse by some with such inexperience across all phases of the team. We'll see if that manifests into battle-tested experience this season, but first indications were not all that positive. But there have been times where a team faltered against an FCS opponent before. It's easy to write off a team on the basis of that, as it can often be explained in a way that doesn't make it all about the team simply stinking. They could be slow out of the gates with a new offensive system or maybe they just overlooked what was supposed to be a warm-up opponent. The mind doesn't create urgency when you see you're favored by better than three touchdowns.
In the near-disaster against Cal Poly, quarterback Tyler Stewart began his second season as a starter and wasn't bad, going 17-for-23 with 189 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Ideally, you'd have liked to see more aerial production against an FCS opponent. Notre Dame defenses have a way of making a Cal Poly defense look like nothing. After a 1376-yard season in '15, James Butler made his presence felt on the ground with 123 yards and two scores. Stewart connected with a decent aerial crew consisting of Jerico Richardson, Andrew Celis, and Hassan Henderson, but not with much regularity. It's just that with so many returning starters and an O-line that is intact from last season, more was expected in week one.
It was also troubling to see the Nevada "D" relinquish a 24-10 fourth quarter lead against Cal Poly in week one. The defensive line didn't look great, as Cal Poly nearly put up 400 rushing yards. From first signs, the losses in personnel might not be cushioned by what was a strong recruiting class in 2014, as these players have not lived up to the hype. They will need to find answers quick. The Wolf Pack also lost their whole starting linebacker crew and it showed in week one. Cal Poly couldn't establish a passing-game, but they didn't need to with so much success on the ground. Even so, the secondary should be the shining light on this "D," as long as they aren't run ragged by the inadequacies of a dilapidated front seven.
Notre Dame was served up a bitter pill to swallow with their week one 50-47 loss to Texas. They first overcame a big deficit, rallying back from 31-17 in the third quarter to take the lead in the 4th. Texas took the lead back again with a touchdown. With the Longhorns leading 37-35 with 4 minutes left, they went for the extra point, which Notre Dame blocked and ran back for two points to tie the game at 37. And to go through all that and lose is a deflating setback. With teams like Notre Dame who have their sights set on making a national splash, week one losses like this are extra deflating. There isn't conference play to look forward to. They just need to push forward and come up with some answers. Still, a home opener at a packed Notre Dame Stadium should get their blood pumping.
The Irish have begin the season with DeShone Kizer behind center and what went wrong on Sunday wasn't his fault, as he threw 5 touchdowns and no picks. Kizer also ran for a score and 77 yards on the night. RB Tarean Folston returned to the fold with a productive 88 yards. After catching just one ball last season, the receiver known as Equanimeous St. Brown caught two TD passes on 75 yards receiving. Torii Hunter, Jr, caught a TD pass, but entered concussion protocol and is questionable for this game. Josh Adams and CJ Sanders also hauled in touchdown grabs. With over 200 yards on the ground and Kizer throwing for 5 TDs, the issue wasn't the offense.
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Some returning pieces were supposed to restore the quality of the Notre Dame defensive line. It certainly didn't manifest in week one, with the Texas ground game going off to the tune 237 yards and 5 touchdowns. The front was often pushed back on the line of scrimmage, which put a lot of pressure on the rest of the Notre Dame "D." Last season, it was their lack of a run-stopping ability that really made them a notch below the elite teams in the nation. Week one showed that problem remains. With the youth movement at linebacker, they were ill-equipped to pick the slack up for a beleaguered line. It also didn't help that just before the season began, a few players were suspended and dismissed, including key safety Max Redfield, which leaves that position a major question mark, though they are strong at corner.
This is not an easy game to gauge, with these teams somewhat out-of-context in this matchup. If anything, the pressure is off Nevada, who is perceived as the Washington Generals in this equation. They showed some decent offensive pep in their week one win. But even as Notre Dame looks to have some defensive issues to iron out, they are still a few levels above Nevada across all fronts. I see an annoyed Irish squad taking out their frustrations out on a team that in a relative sense, just isn't very good.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus 27.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Nevada vs. Notre Dame game at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
